Election 2008: Clinton vs. Giuliani & Thompson

[William769]

Senator Hillary Clinton now enjoys a five-point lead over Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. It’s Clinton 48% and Giuliani 43%. The former First Lady also leads former Senator Fred Thompson 48% to 41%.

Both match-ups represent gains for the Democratic frontrunner. But the more modest lead, over Giuliani, is also the more dramatic news.

Two weeks ago, Clinton held a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Giuliani. Prior to that, Clinton had held an advantage over Giuliani only once in fourteen consecutive Rasmussen Reports polls.

Giuliani began the year with the advantage in this match-up, but Clinton has gained ground in the latter part of the year. And Clinton has had a particularly good week, getting an often-generous reception for her recently announced health care plan (see "Hillary's Great Week"). On Health Care, voters currently trust Democrats more than Republicans by a wider margin than on any other major issue).

Senator Clinton also continues to enjoy a very healthy lead in the national Democratic nomination race. Recent polls in the early Primary States of New Hampshire and Florida show her lead growing in both places.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_clinton_vs_giuliani_thompson

[oasis]

1. Americans realize that she's by far the most qualified. Let the rebuilding begin. (eom)

[Chulanowa]

2. I can see the punditry now...

The Wicked Witch (cue maniacal cackle) vs. Dopey and Sleepy

[durrrty libby]

3. I'm quite sure the divide will increase. The more people get to know

Hillary, the more they are impressed.Rudy will have the opposite effect

[kmccaskill]

4. why

why do you people like her? really!



she can't win

wake up please


even democrats and independents will vote against her just because they don't like her, independents, republican, and democrat message boards and blogs have one thing in common they don't like hillary,
here is what will happen if you nominate hill. a third party will run take all those indie and demo that hate hillary, and rudy will win


please wake up, whether you don't like obama or not please do not nominate hillary, it will be a sure bet for 12 years of repub rule, i had rudy as my mayor and it wasn't good and the only way is to nominate someone else

[emilyg]

7. I'm very awake - go Hillary.

[William769]

17. Want to see that persons avatar.

[durrrty libby]

8. I am awake. You try it. Of course she can win. I am fed up with

dems afraid of the rotting corpse, formerly known as the GOP

And I don't give a shit about blogs not supporting her

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. .

.

[Jim Lane]

5. Talk about overhype....

In a poll taken more than a year before the actual election, Clinton's margin over Giuliani shifts from one percent to five percent. And this is described as "dramatic news"? Give me a break.

The meaningful result is what it was when Clinton had the smaller lead, and before that when Giuliani had a lead: As of right now, the hypothetical race appears to be competitive. Anything beyond that is a symptom of "journalists" looking for an excuse not to cover difficult policy issues. They prefer to cover the presidential campaign as if it were a baseball pennant race.

[William769]

6. Not over hype, the primaries are right around the corner

This just gives a little perspective for some in the primaries. Also shoots the shit out of the meme that she is to polarizing.

[Jim Lane]

10. If you think it's not overhype, here's a question....

If next month's polling has Clinton's lead over Giuliani back down to one point, would that be "dramatic news"? Of course not, and Hillary backers would rightly mock anyone who made such a claim. We're talking about a general-election poll, more than a year before the election. It has so much uncertainty that a four-point shift is not a big deal.

By the way, if the December poll shows Giuliani leading Clinton by five points, will that prove she can't win the general election? I don't think so. If you won't want to be held to that conclusion, though, you'd better not be too eager to tout early poll results.

[William769]

12. You seem to like the word "if"

Going by what has happened so far this year with polling data, I am not worried at all, but I can see how youwould be.

[calteacherguy]

11. Onward to victory!!!!!!!!!

:bounce:

[jpljr77]

13. Is there a chance NY would go to Rudy?

That's the only thing that scares me in a Clinton vs. Giuliani (or Anyone vs. Giuliani for that matter) race. There is a sizeable number of NYC residents that would vote for Giuliani, I think. That, combined with the automatic votes he'd receive from upstate, make him dangerous in NY in 2008.

It sucks when NY is in play for a republican. Fortunately, Giuliani is the only R candidate that this applies to. And I don't think he'll win the nomination, so maybe it's all moot.

[William769]

14. Talking about New York

What other Democratic candidate would have a better chance at beating Giuliani than Clinton?

[jpljr77]

15. Well, none obviously.

Clinton does, of course, have the best shot of any candidate, Dem or Pub, of winning NY. Especially when you consider that she's a current NY politician, not to mention traditional voting patterns, politics, etc.

It's more of a fear I have about Giuliani and his specific prospects in the state. If he wins the Pub nomination (which, again, I think is a long shot), I think he would dedicate a lot of resources to the state, since it would be in-play for him. And there is also a slight chance he could pull NJ and CT in a general election.

At any rate, a Clinton vs. Giuliani general election would be interesting, to say the least, and fairly non-traditional.

[William769]

16. I am actually hoping Giuliani gets the Republican nomination.

Whoever the Democratic nominee is will wipe the floor with him.

[jpljr77]

18. Yeah, maybe.

But don't ever discount the strength of the "Anybody But Hillary" vote in the general election.

All of those republican voters that are whining about a lack of a true conservative candidate will not just sit at home. Also, the fence-sitters will like Giuliani because he's a little more moderate, and of course they will be inundated with images of his "leadership" in NYC on 9/11/01.

It's also interesting to note that the person running against Giuliani will have to wage what could be classified as a "dirty" campaign, because one of his biggest flaws is his personal life.

With all that said, I still think she's the best candidate and will win, everything. It'll be interesting to see who she picks as her VP.