WP's The Trail: Is Obama Really Trailing Clinton?

[Colobo]

Is Obama Really Trailing Clinton?
Every weekday, members of the Washington Post political team take your questions on politics. Here are highlights from today's chat with Anne E. Kornblut.

Mount Prospect, Ill.: How do you reconcile the apparent wide gap between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (according to recent polls) and the significant reaction (both in donors and total dollars) that puts Obama at the top tier, above Clinton? Is it possible that despite those polls, this grassroot movement for Obama is something the media is missing that will show its strength at the voting/caucus settings, and that is why Obama continues to avoid any strident criticisms of Clinton?


Anne E. Kornblut: It's a great question,and one we spend a lot of time scratching our heads over here. Your theory is entirely possible; it is, after all, about three months until we see actual voting begin. And let's not forget who was the front-runner for the Democratic nomination four years ago (hint: it was not John Kerry). The Clinton campaign, though, would say that Obama's support donation-wise is a reflection of his support from elites who can afford to help him (and donors overall make up a small portion of the population), whereas Clinton has broad popular support... We will find out soon enough.

[KKKarl is an idiot]

1. Every time I see a poll..

I cannot make sense of it. Most people I know do not like Hilary Clinton. But Obama has wide support. I really think we will come to a point in the near future or we are there right now where telephone polls cannot be trusted because most people who own land-lines are not a true representation of the population. Remember Obama's base is mainly younger people who for the most part have never owned a land-line.

[Connie_Corleone]

2. Elites my ass.

I'm on the low end of middle class and a lot of Obama's donors, including me, are small dollar donors.

[Dawgs]

3. Agree. That last line is bullshit.

Only Hillary, or her supporters, would claim that they have more donations from smaller donors.

[Capn Sunshine]

19. It's all right there in our FEC filings

Take a look and decide for yourself

[elizm]

16. Another low end donor here. nt

[Ethelk2044]

4. Obama's donations are from everyday people middle and working class. Her donations are from

Lobbyist etc. Like I have been saying only time will tell.

[ElizabethDC]

5. I'm not a lobbyist and I've donated to Hillary

as a matter of fact, none of the Hillary supporters I know are lobbyists. We're just "everyday people."

[William769]

7. Damn, I'm a lobbyist?

Wheres my perks!

[William769]

6. Here is a little hint what was Dean lead up to Iowa? Or for that matter Lieberman's?

[snowbear]

8. Younger voters aren't sitting around their phones in the evening when pollsters call..

. . .



That.. and the Republicans who are responding to polls are going to vote for HRC every time
(DUH!)



Did anyone see David Gregory ask for a hand of those voting for Clinton when he was standing with all of those students at Dartmouth University? Maybe 2 or 3 of them raised their hands, and one of them looked like their elderly teacher.

Obama got the largest response with loud cheers from the majority of students.

David Gregory came back with..

"Well Nora, I guess what we're seeing in these polls are.. uh.. .. What we're seeing is that.. .. I mean.. the reason these polls are.. uh.. ..

Er.. it seems that older Democrats like Clinton, but younger Democrats and students prefer Obama" ..
((LOUD CHEERS IN BACKGROUND))



"Yeah, that's what it is Nora, that's what we're seeing!!"

[Kelly Rupert]

10. Unfortunately, given the lack of disparity between polls and results

in 2004 and 2006, it seems that younger people are not voting at least the same proportions that they're not being polled.

[snowbear]

12. Although the motivation this election is HIGHER than it's ever been..

--- ever.

I still say we have absolutely no clue on who our nominee will be.

The media have their favorites - but it won't make a lick of difference in the end.

[Kelly Rupert]

13. So they said in '04, and so they said in '06.

And indeed, the turnout was extremely high (for America) in both those elections. And still, young people didn't vote in any higher of a proportion than before, despite all the claims beforehand of a hidden, non-polled, motivated youth.

I would take any claims of an invisible base of support to be wishful thinking for now.

[SaveElmer]

9. We hear this same thing every election...

The person behind in the polls is supposedly always going to be the beneficiary of some super secret grassroots vote that no one has caught onto yet...

[killbotfactory]

11. I must be one of those democratic elites

since I know what arugula is.

[FlaxieB]

14. He trailing because of media bias

Hillary is the media's girl. Polls favor her. This will continue until the Dem elections. The american people know better.

[Kelly Rupert]

15. Would the fact that polls are favoring her prove

that the American people prefer her at the moment?

[FlaxieB]

17. No. Polls are selective.

You poll a certain demographic in order to get a certain result. Hillary is the media darling and they want her elected. No other candidate gets favoritism as much as her.

[William769]

18. What demographic has not been polled?