North Carolina: Hillary with 19 point lead over Edwards and Obama...

[SaveElmer]

A new poll released Friday shows Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton leading North Carolina's own John Edwards, with 37 percent of respondents indicating their support for the former First Lady.

Of the three Democratic candidates most favored by respondents, Edwards and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama were tied at 18 percent.

The Elon University Poll, conducted Sept. 24-27 by the Elon University Institute for Politics and Public Affairs, surveyed 664 North Carolina residents.

http://wral.com/news/state/story/1872475/

[William769]

1. But but but she can't win the South!

[skipos]

3. Winning a primary is very different than winning a general election. Ask Dukakis.

Personally, I don't think any of our candidates will "win the south" in the general election. I think they all have shots at certain states, and no shots in others.

[SaveElmer]

4. Democrats have a shot if this portion of the poll is to be believed

Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they plan to support the Democratic Party in the 2008 presidential election, while 34 percent of respondents indicated their support for the Republican Party.

Twenty-five percent of citizens believe it is too early to tell or do not know which party they will support.

[skipos]

6. NC isn't as red as Alabama, but it is more red than OH, AR, VA, FL, MO, NV

and maybe some others states Kerry didn't win. In a close election, I don't think eve Edwards is capable of winning it. Edwards got the 4% VP homestate boost, but NC is around +12% Repub in the last couple presidential elections.

[SaveElmer]

7. Well in the states you have listed except Alabama...

Hillary has led all Republicans in at least some polls...in a wave election NC could fall...

[Carrieyazel]

36. Unfortunately, no southern state with the exception of FL is in play for any Democrat in 2008.

No matter how strong, or how weak (Hillary e.g.) our nominee is. That's the reality. Edwards would lose his home state, So NC is not much different than VA and AR in that respect. Could we win these three in 2012 and beyond? Yes, but the states we need next year in addition to Ohio and Nevada, are Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. Florida will be difficult, so we need a couple of fallbacks.

[skipos]

39. VA is undeniably trending blue in every way possible

Warner as VP would win it. AR could be won with Clark as VP, I dunno about Hillary.

Check out the red/purple states from the last 5 pres elections
For example, "18d" means in 1988 Iowa voted 18% more for the Dem than the national average.

WEAK REP
Iowa: 18d, 1d, 2d, 1r, 2D
New Mexico: 3d, 3d, 1r, 1r, 2D

WEAK REP, TRENDING DEM
Nevada: 13r, 3r, 8r, 4r, 1r
Colorado: 1r, 1r, 10r, 9r, 3r

LIKELY REP, TRENDING DEM
Virginia: 13r, 10r, 10r, 9r, 6r

LIKELY REP
Florida: 15r, 8r, 3r, 1r, 3r
Ohio: 3r, 4r, 2r, 4r, 1d
Missouri: 4d, 5d, 2r, 4r, 5r
Arkansas: 6r, 12d(Clinton P), 8d (Clinton P), 6r, 7r
Arizona: 13r, 8r, 6r, 7r, 8r

STRONG REP
North Carolina: 9r, 6r, 13r, 13r, 10r (Edwards VP)
West Virginia: 12d, 7d, 6d, 7r, 10r

[Carrieyazel]

40. I definitely see your point with VA and AR, and that info you posted is great

NC is going to be harder than I thought to crack, and AZ is also going to take time.

Do you think Virginia Dems could take over the State Senate in these upcoming statewide elections in November?

[surfermaw]

47. Edwards

Just because Jesse Helms country is not voting for Edwards, doesn't mean any thing to me, North Carolina uuslly voted republican in the state with the exception of the governor, but usually goed democrat in the presidential election... It will vote Edwards in the General Election, I would bet my boots.

[Clark2008]

11. She can't.

[SaveElmer]

12. Except in Florida, Arkansas, Virginia, Missouri, and Kentucky...

Where at most recent polls show her leading all Republicans...

[BootinUp]

14. She'll do better there than

Kerry did I believe.

[Carrieyazel]

37. I doubt she would, Hillary has no shot to win any southern states.

Kerry did poorly (but not terribly)in the South, but I can't see Hillary improving on his numbers significantly. She's more polarizing than he was, and her gender will hurt her as well there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. She's The Only Dem To Be Leadiing In Any Southern State

Arkansas.

[laureloak]

2. That's because NC is a red state. Repubs vote for Hillary

because they know they can beat her.

[SaveElmer]

5. Can you read...?

Just curious as this was a poll of Democrats...

:eyes:

[laureloak]

15. YOU can't read. It's 50%-50% Repub & Dem per WRAL-tv.

The Republicans are carrying her because they want her to be the Dem candidate because they know they can turn America against her and beat her.

Except from WRAL:
Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they plan to support the Democratic Party in the 2008 presidential election, while 34 percent of respondents indicated their support for the Republican Party.

[BootinUp]

20. Nonsense.

The Repukes were polled about the repuke candidates. Where have you ever seen a poll that didn't work like that? And unless you have a link to the full breakdown of this poll, your claim is absurd.

[BootinUp]

24. look here, at this link

http://wral.com/asset/news/state/2007/09/28/1872475/ElonPollResults.swf

Which party will you likely support in the next presidential election?
Percent
DEMOCRATIC 38.0
REPUBLICAN 34.3
TOO EARLY TO TELL (v) 12.8
OTHER (v) 4.3
DON T KNOW (v) 9.8
REFUSED (v) 0.8
Total 100.0
If Democratic, skip to next, or Democratic question
If Republican, skip to second, or Republican question
All other responses skip to Dole questions
Which of the following Democratic candidates are you planning to support at this time?

Percent
HILLARY CLINTON 37.4
JOHN EDWARDS 18.0
BARACK OBAMA 17.7
JOSEPH BIDEN 3.7
BILL RICHARDSON 1.3
DENNIS KUCINICH 0.5
TOO EARLY TO TELL (v) 11.9
DON T KNOW (v) 9.2
OTHER (v) 0.4
Total (246; +/- 6.4) 100.0
Which of the following Republican candidate are you planning to support at this time?

Percent
FRED THOMPSON 27.9
RUDY GIULIANI 21.0
JOHN MCCAIN12.2
MITT ROMNEY8.4
MIKE HUCKABEE 2.0
RON PAUL 1.4
SAM BROWNBACK 0.4
TOM TANCREDO 0.4
TOO EARLY TO TELL (v) 16.6
DON T KNOW (v) 8.1
OTHER (v) 1.6
Total (222; +/- 6.7) 100.0

[SaveElmer]

25. Oh man...you haven't looked at polls much have you...

Democrats were asked about Democrats...Republicans were asked about Republicans...

I suspect now that you have been taken to school on this topic we won't be seeing any kind of response will we?

[unc70]

43. No, you might need to be schooled on this one

This Elon poll did not control for registered Dem or anything like that, not even self-identifying the party affiliation. Respondents were only asked which party they planned to support in the next election and then were asked to select from that party's candidates. Elon probably should have done a parallel open-ended "who would you vote for" initial question and a voter-registration question to see how different the responses are. This particular poll is a muddle of a mess and it is difficult to project much from it and it could be subject to mischief responses.

In other polls with head-to-head match-ups against various Repubs, Edwards has generally done somewhat better than Clinton in NC and in most of the South. In those of just registered Dems, Edwards and Clinton have polled roughly the same.

My sense of things in NC among registered Dems is that the activists/involved mostly favor Edwards while the less-involved, particularly women, favor Clinton. She seems to be beating Obama for the majority of the Black vote, a huge part of the Dem vote in NC (white women are most of the rest). I would bet that Dem primary (if held today), would roughly split 35 C/35 E/22 O.

Edwards is the target in NC of a relentless below-the-radar series of attacks by the RW that only surface on rare occassions. A lot of it is the "pretty boy" type crap that resonates with those who would never vote for any Dem. So far, the attacks on Clinton have been relatively subdued, although I am certain that they would hit in full force if she becomes our nominee.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. They Are Clobbering Her In The Polls

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

I will post that link every time that meme comes up...

[BeyondGeography]

8. Another dismal home-state showing for Edwards

His (to be charitable) fair-to-middling popularity in his own state is something I've never seen his supporters effectivly defend.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. That's Embarrassing...

eom

[Kelly Rupert]

13. I know three people from NC.

None liked him. Don't know what that means, but two thought he was "a douche" and one thought he was a "lightweight," and this was back in the '04 primary.

[laureloak]

18. That's a crock of crap. I'm from NC. It's a RED state and

nothing is changing that. If you want to believe they love Hillary you are just falling into their trap.

[Kelly Rupert]

21. They don't like Hillary either. Never said they did. n/t

[Carrieyazel]

38. You're absolutely right. Hillary would get beat badly in NC,

I know NC elects plenty of Dems locally, district-wide and below the Senate level, but for anything higher it just isnt gonna happen.

[ElizabethDC]

19. I have a close friend from NC

he used to like Edwards, but now whenever I mention Edwards to him, he makes a nasty face.

[JI7]

41. did he say why ?

[struggle4progress]

34. On the other hand, I know plenty of people in NC who like the fellow

[sandnsea]

46. I know 25,000

who seem to like him pretty well.

[laureloak]

16. It's baloney. That's a 50% republican poll. They are picking

our Dem candidate.

[BootinUp]

22. see #20

[SaveElmer]

23. What the hell are you talking about?

Brother the irrationality that takes over when Hillary is mentioned around here is breathtaking...

Like telling fundies there was no Noah's Ark...

[Yukari Yakumo]

17. Sauce

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/092807data.pdf

[depakid]

26. That should probably read- Hillary ahead in another state she has NO chance of winning

The worst part about it is that if she does somehow manage to win the nomination- she's going to take the rest of us at the state and local level down with her.

Not that it matters to her.

[SaveElmer]

27. Got any evidence at all to back that up...

All you are doing is regurgitating the same discredited rw/lw meme again....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I'll Bet She Isn't Losing NY To Edwards By Twenty One Points

Those are the people that should know him best...

[BootinUp]

28. Didn't he used to be a Senator there?

Wow. Thats embarrassing.

[Adelante]

29. No, embarrassing is South Carolina

The last poll I saw was 7%, although he'd been at least in the double digits previously.

[Cameron27]

31. Whoa

Edwards ties third with 18% in NC...ouch.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. He Should Spend More Time There

eom

[Cameron27]

33. self-delete

a little silly and completely unnecessary reply.

[Carrieyazel]

35. Sorry, but the great state of NC has no impact on who gets the nom

This will be decided by 4 states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

[JI7]

42. anyone know how Hillary is doing in Arkansas ?

[sandnsea]

45. They support Thompson & Dole too

And either support the Iraq war or aren't sure what they think of it. :crazy: