A DU Delphic Poll (Election 2004 Edition)

[Jackpine Radical]

A delphic poll is a technique developed for predicting future events based on meta-analyzing expert opinions. Do the posters on DU constitute a populaton of experts? Can we turn our collective wisdom into knowledge of the future?

Here’s how it works: we start with a specific question that will have a clear-cut qualitative or quantitative answer in the near future. We solicit opinions and summarize them statistically or qualitatively, publish the results, and wait to see what happens. Can we put our heads together and beat the odds?

Let’s find out.

Here’s the first set of questions:

1) At what point will the primary race be down to one candidate?
2) Who will get the Democratic nomination?
3) Who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
4) Who will win the Presidency in November?
5) How many Republicans, Democrats & Independents will be in the new Senate in January 2005?
6) Ditto for the new House?

I'll wait for enough responses & be back with the results. Then we can wait and see how smart we are collectively.

Others are welcome to submit their own questions for inclusion in future Delphic polls if this turns out to be a useful (or at least fun) thing to do.


Mods: I hope it will be OK to leave this poll up in GD-Primaries for a while & then move it somewhere such as the Politics & Campaigns forum where it can hang around for a while.

[On the Road]

1. My Replies

1) March 9: Primaries in FL, LA, MS, TX, WA.
2) Edwards
3) No one on the radar today. Haven't the foggiest.
4) Edwards
5) Democrats will hold a one-seat majority
6) Democrats will hold a minority of five seats.

On Edit: BTW, I like delphic polls. It will be interesting to see if the process works on DU. Because DUers have strong partisan emotions, the results may split into several camps rather than coalesce around the center.

[saltpoint]

2. Responses --

1 -- the convention in Boston. No first-ballot winner.
2 -- George Mitchell
3 -- Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia
4 -- Mitchell
5 -- Democrats up 1 to grab majority.
6 -- Democrats win 12 seats, just shy of majority.

(nice post, jackpine radical -- thanks)

[Jackpine Radical]

3. George Mitchell? Really? I'd never even considered him.

[Jackpine Radical]

4. A kick

in the interest of science

[The Magistrate]

5. In My View, Mr. Radical

The March 9 primaries will be the final point of real contention.

Sen. Kerry will emerge the nominee.

Gen. Clark will be the Vice-Presidential nominee.

The Democratic nominee will win the election.

Senate and House predictions at this point are beyond my thought, but there is no reason, unfortunately, to expect great change in our favor here in either body.

[aldian159]

6. My guesses

1. March 9th.
2. John Kerry
3. Wesley Clark
4. John Kerry.
5. 52 GOP, 48 Dem, 1 Ind
6. The gop will have a 10 seat majority.

[Mr. Brown of MD]

7. I'll take a stab

1. I don't think we will get down to "one candidate" until the convention, but this is only because I am taking Kucinich and Sharpton at their word that they will run all the way to the convention. Aside from that, with the way things are going now, I think we will be left with Kerry as the only serious guy in the race after the "Southern Tuesday" on March 9.

2. John Kerry

3. Wesley Clark (or so I can dream)

4. John Kerry

5. We have a lot of retiring seats to defend - NC, SC, GA, FL, LA. I think we can consider ourselves lucky if we lose only two. IL is the safest place to predict a Dem pickup, and I think maybe we can pick another one off, leaving us with the same balance we have now. R 52 D 47 I 1 (leans D), I believe.

6. Texas redistricting shenanigans are going to obliterate the few gains that we might make elsewhere in the country. Assuming Stephanie Herseth wins the special election in SD, that would give us R 228 D 206 I 1 (leans D.)

Perhaps I'll be pleasantly surprised, but I think staying the course is the best we can hope for this cycle, at least as far as Congress goes. One step at a time.

-CollegeDude
Unsure if going out on a limb or not

[Lexingtonian]

8. dang, my crystal ball is in the shop

but here goes :D

1) March 3
2) Kerry
3) Clark
4) Democrat (Kerry)
5) 51 R, 48 D, 1 I
6) 221 R, 214 D

[Jackpine Radical]

9. Thanks folks, and let's keep the prognostications coming.

[orangeotter]

10. reading tea leaves good/ eating leads to cancer

just saying that I as well love to peer into the unknown, but am not sure if we will gain anything from it collectively. Certainly worth a try though.
1) Wont go down to one man until convention vote, sharpton perhaps Dean will take there delegates to the convention so technically there will still be candidates in.
2) Sen. John Kerry (D) Mass.
3) This is the juiciest of them all. I think it's Edwards or Gephardt. Edwards = energy Gephardt = electoral sense. I'll go with Edwards on this though.
4) Kerry/Edwards ticket by about 600-750k votes total about 325 to 213 electoral
5) 52 GOP 1 Indie and 47 Dems
6) House majority for GOP will be about 20 seats. About 227 to 208

[Minstrel Boy]

11. my glum forecast:

1) At what point will the primary race be down to one candidate?
The evening of Super Tuesday

2) Who will get the Democratic nomination?
John Kerry

3) Who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
Evan Bayh

4) Who will win the Presidency in November?
George Bush

5) How many Republicans, Democrats & Independents will be in the new Senate in January 2005?
Unchanged

6) Ditto for the new House?
Virtually unchanged

[Toronto Ron]

12. My answers:

1) At what point will the primary race be down to one candidate?

Super Tuesday night, or the next day.

2) Who will get the Democratic nomination?

Kerry.

3) Who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?

Bill Richardson.

4) Who will win the Presidency in November?

Kerry.

5) How many Republicans, Democrats & Independents will be in the new Senate in January 2005?

Democrats net gain of one, so 51R-48D-1I.

6) Ditto for the new House?

Democrats will close the gap by about 10 seats (i.e. net gain of 5).

[WilliamPitt]

13. Responses

1) At what point will the primary race be down to one candidate?

It depends on who sets the one man race standard. There are more than 1,150 delegates tied to the March 2nd primaries. 370 are up for grabs in California, 237 in New York. March 2nd will make this a "one man race," at least according to the press. Dennis Kucinich has vowed to take his run to Boston, and I take him at his word. So, in truth, it will never be a one man race...but the winner on march 2nd will be dominant, and the press will dismiss all others.

2) Who will get the Democratic nomination?

Kerry. He has dominant, nay ridiculous leads in New York and California. As stated above, March 2nd will seal the deal.

3) Who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?

Hopefully someone from the West. I think it is a fool's dream and a waste of money for a Democrat to try to win any Southern states. A Westerner on the ticket puts Missouri and Nevada in play. Bush is losing in Ohio to Kerry right now, and West Virginia will come back into the fold. Ballgame.

4) Who will win the Presidency in November?

The Democratic nominee, by a slightly larger margin than expected.

5) How many Republicans, Democrats & Independents will be in the new Senate in January 2005?

Congress will remain Republican. The margin will be determined by how well or poorly Bush runs in the general. Five Southern states have open Senate seats coming up, and unless Jesus gets involved, those will go to the GOP. Jeffords will remain the only independent in the body.

6) Ditto for the new House?

See above. Same rules apply.