Newsweek Iowa Poll: Competition in the Cornfields

[Adelante]

-snip

Among all Iowa Democratic voters, Clinton draws 31 percent, followed by Obama (25 percent) and Edwards (21 percent). But among likely caucus-goers, Obama enjoys a slim lead, polling 28 percent to best Clinton (24 percent) and Edwards (22 percent). Bill Richardson is the only other Democratic candidate to score in the double digits (10 percent).

Still, the poll suggests that Clinton’s supporters may be the strongest of the pack. A majority of her boosters (55 percent) say their support is “strong,” edging Obama (41 percent) and Edwards (37 percent). Neither Clinton’s gender nor Obama’s race seem to be a sticking point for Iowa Democrats; 94 percent of voters say they would be willing to vote for either a female candidate or a black candidate. But only two thirds think the country is ready to elect a woman (63 percent) or African-American (66 percent) president.

Clinton’s record on Iraq may be affecting her support in Iowa. Likely Democratic caucus-goers are split: 22 percent say her record on the war makes them more likely to vote for her; 21 percent say it makes them less inclined. But it’s clear that her husband, former president Bill Clinton, is an unalloyed asset. Eight in 10 (79 percent) Democratic likely caucus-goers say it would be good for the country to have him back in the White House as First Gentleman (12 percent do not).

-snip

The NEWSWEEK Poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International on Sept. 26-27. Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,215 Iowa registered voters; the overall margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The margin of error for questions asked only of Democratic voters is plus or minus 5 percentage points and "likely" Democratic voters is plus or minus 7; for Republican voters it is 6 percentage points and plus or minus 9 points for "likely" GOP voters. For respondents who said the issue of abortion is important, the margin of error is plus or minus 4 points; for respondents who said it was "not important" it's 5 points.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21038955/site/newsweek/page/0/

[Bucky]

1. What a contrast to Clinton support on DU

I'm glad to read that 55% of her supporters are "strong", which stands in stark contrast to her supporters on DU, about 55% of whom I'd describe as "fucking rude." Maybe it's not the right percentage though. Maybe it's just a vocal minority making 55% of the comments. I certainly think that's the case with Clinton detractors, where something closer to 70% of their comments are hysterical and not a little freeperish in flavor.

Still, it's nice to see the race closer among those who are paying attention to it most.

[cobalt1999]

2. DU is not representative of reality

Either in political opinion or rudeness.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Neither Is Iowa

Iowa and Idaho are the most homogeneous states in the Union...

With all due respect, country clubs are racially more diverse than Iowa...

[emilyg]

15. I hope not.

[SaveElmer]

3. Looks like good news for Obama and Hillary...not so good for Edwards...nt

[hedgehog]

4. If as I expect, no one enters the convention with more than 40% of the delegates,

I expect Obama and Edwards to throw in together.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Yup. I was about to make that comment...

but you just did. :toast:

[maximusveritas]

8. I'd call it terrible news for Edwards

It's clear from looking at all the recent polls of this state that he has lost the advantage he had there early on. It's hard to imagine him regaining it. It's only going to get worse.
The unions were looking for signs that he was electable. This isn't it. Combine that with the news of his struggling fundraising and acceptance of public financing and he's in worse shape now than ever before.

[struggle4progress]

17. With a 7% margin of error for questions asked of likely D voters and a 5% margin for D voters

the candidates aren't meaningfully separated

[maximusveritas]

5. Great news for Obama. He is surging ahead

Where are all those people who were declaring him dead and Clinton inevitable? This is just one poll, but it definitely puts the lie to those ideas.

[Cameron27]

6. Good for Obama,

good for Clinton, and to be honest I don't know what to think of Edwards' chances anymore. Time will tell.

[bigdarryl]

9. this is a BULLSHIT article if you go around Iowa you see a very good organization for Obama...

and that is whats going to count in the long run ORGANIZATION.

[Cameron27]

10. Are you doubting the results of the poll?

[Carrieyazel]

11. Still wide open!!!!! Hillary must be defeated here. We need someone who can win the general.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Like This Person

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm


:P

[Carrieyazel]

12. The polls are all over the map here. It's wide open.

Don't put too much faith into 1 poll. There is still three months left.

[Froward69]

16. I concur completely!

their are rumblings. my aunt usually votes with the winner.(she is in Iowa) she tells you all about it. this time she will not tell whom her pick is. totally silent when I ask if its Biden. changes the subject asking about others. I swear I hear her smiling on the other end of the line.