Poll shows Obama ahead in Iowa among "likely Democratic caucus-goers"

[oberliner]

According to MSNBC, among that population:

Obama 28, Clinton 24, Edwards 22, Richardson 10, Biden 5, Kucinich 1, Dodd 1, Gravel 0, Undecided 9

Interestingly, the same poll shows that 22 percent of Republicans and 4 percent of Democrats (in Iowa) would NOT vote for a woman even if she were qualified for the job (and nominated by their own party).

The poll was conducted on 9/26-27.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21036143/site/newsweek/

[papau]

1. A poll of about 200 people has aheck of an MOE - but still the results are interesting - and

it may be hard to get more than 200 that "definitely" or "likely" will attend the Democratic Party caucus when the polling is limited to 2 days.

[Ethelk2044]

2. Obama has a mass grassroots effort in Iowa he should do well

[Pirate Smile]

14. I just had an Obama canvasser at my door within the past hour. She was very nice. I saw another

one on the other side of the street. I get calls every couple of weeks from the Obama precinct captain for my area letting me know what is going on. They had a picnic at a park a couple of weeks ago. They also called about the Harking Steak Fry.

One odd part that I just thought of was that she had my Republican husband's name on her sheet which she crossed out and entered mine. I went to the last Democratic caucus. He has never gone to any. I wonder where they get the names on the sheets. They must just have the names for every house because they were going to them all (I think).

I had an Edwards canvasser a few weeks ago also.

[MGKrebs]

15. Normally those lists come from the voter rolls.

And usually, in a primary situation, canvassers will target neighborhoods that are already predominantly Dem. They may go to every house in that case.
If they get around to going to less "friendly" streets or neighborhoods, they would likely target specific houses, otherwise, you end up wasting a lot of time talking to people you can't swing.
Not sure what's going on with the names on the list unless somebody just transcribed something wrong somewhere in the process. I suppose it's also possible that Team Obama thinks they can swing a bunch of Repubs. Do you guys have to register with a party affiliation, or can you decide which caucus you want to go to at the last minute?

[William769]

3. It should also be noted that even though Obama has a slight lead with Caucus goers

Hillary slightly leads overall.

[jefferson_dem]

4. As expected, Obama's supporters are more enthusiastic about their candidate and

more likely to slog their way to the polls in January than are Hillary's more casual, passive supporters. This is also reflective of Obama's superior field operation. Looking good!

Thanks for pointing that out.

[William769]

5. Not a problem

Come January, when Hillary wins Iowa, I'll drink a beer for you. :hi:

[slick8790]

8. Why does that matter if theyre not gonna turn out to the caucus?

[BootinUp]

6. Doesn't this show a gain for Hillary as well?

I thought it was Eddie then Obama then Hillary in Iowa polls before this.

[oberliner]

7. Yep

Hillary is in good shape in Iowa as well.

Should be a really interesting caucus!

[maximusveritas]

16. Yes, both Obama and Hillary are gaining at the expense of Edwards

This was bound to happen and most of the other polls have shown this trend developing as well. The big question for the future is whether Edwards' supporters will stay with him, switch to another candidate, or just stay home.

[Yukari Yakumo]

9. Other teling things

Edwards is down to third place with a weak 22%, but this is bigger:

Strength of Support:
Strong-- Clinton 55%, Obama 41%, Edwards 37%
Not Strong/Lean-- Clinton 45%, Obama 59%, Edwards 63%

Meaning Hillery has a more loyal base, while Edwards's support might be looking to jump ship soon. If Edwards's fundraising falls short of expectations (very likely), I think we may be seeing the last moments of Edwards of being a top contender for the nom.

[jenmito]

10. Yup. And I bet when Edwards drops out more of his supporters will go to Obama.

Afterall, both Edwards and Obama didn't take special interest money, PAC money, and other similarities.

[BootinUp]

11. And to Hillary too, as this poll indicates has been happening. n/t

[jenmito]

12. How could MORE of his supporters go to both Obama and Hillary?

Just askin'...

[BootinUp]

13. My mistake

I never took a speed reading course.

Anyways, I think that is hard to predict. What I see is Hillary has gained tremendous ground in Iowa though.

[jenmito]

17. No problemo...

True, but I think Edwards' loss will be more Obama's gain.

[illinoisprogressive]

18. Adding 1st and 2nd choice, Obama is the overwhelming winner at 51%

[Colobo]

23. Isn't it beautiful? FIRED UP! READY TO GO!

[Carrieyazel]

19. Wasn't there a recent poll among "likelies" that had Richardson at about 15%.

Hillary's numbers look too high.

[maximusveritas]

21. The Strategic Vision (R) poll had him at 13%

Hillary led that poll with the same percentage she has here (24%).

[Ethelk2044]

20. This is Great News and He made his goals for the quarter

Together we've set an ambitious goal: 500,000 donations to this campaign from 350,000 people by midnight on September 30th.

Here's where we stand: 500,551 donations from 350,519 people

[gateley]

22. Kind of OT, but when did Richardson start gaining in the polls? As a Biden

supporter this particular poll doesn't thrill me, but I DO like Richardson so congrats to him and his supporters.

[flpoljunkie]

24. And, the polling used a "tight screen" of likely caucus goers.

From Politico's Ben Smith...

UPDATE: Actually, it's the second poll with Obama up. The other was the August 3 ABC/Washpost survey. And details of the screen, which I'd initially misread, are here: it's registered Iowa Democrats who say they'll "definitely" or "probably" attend and captures mostly repeat caucus-goers, a sign that it's a tight screen.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0907/A_poll_for_Obama.html

[Imagevision]

25. We're pulling for Obama here, the idea of NEW leadership is almost orgazmatic...

[Colobo]

26. This is what the haters love to hate.