New Hampshire Prepares A Rocky Ride for Democrats

[illinoisprogressive]

The smooth road to the White House down which Hillary Clinton has sped so far threatens to become rocky in the Granite State of New Hampshire.

This is where the first presidential primary elections will be held in January, shortly after the Iowa caucuses, where Mrs Clinton is in a three-way fight with Barack Obama and John Edwards, her chief rivals for the Democratic nomination.

An opinion poll this week giving her a 23-point lead over Mr Obama suggests that she should easily win New Hampshire. But it is hard to find anyone who believes that the election will stay one-sided, particularly in a state that takes its role in picking the next president so seriously.

Ray Buckley, the chairman of New Hampshire Democrats, said: “There is going to be surprise – there always is. Someone leading now in the polls will not necessarily be leading in January.”

Fergus Cullen, his counterpart in the Republicans, agrees. “The Democratic race is about to become more competitive here. People want to see a contest, they want to see candidates tested. They don’t like the idea that one of them is walking away with it.”

New Hampshire and Iowa jealously guard their status as the “first in the nation” to choose their presidential candidates. Longstanding resentment at the influence exercised by these states – regarded as small, white and a bit too contrary – has prompted others to move the dates for their primaries forward to January or early February.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article2547607.ece

[Debi]

1. I've been told that no voter in New Hampshrie truly makes up their mind

until they are in the voting booth :shrug:

[Dr.Phool]

2. New Hampshire is now irrelevent

Everybody knows Florida has the first primary. Or is it Michigan?

:sarcasm:

[Benhurst]

3. As an undecided voter, leaning to Gore if he decides to run, I wish you

would find another picture of Obama. It reminds me of a tele-evangelist or a Michael Jackson wannabe, and is not the image I want of one who may very well be our nominee. There are lots of good pictures of Obama out there. This is definitely not one of them, especially if you are trying to attract supporters.

[saltpoint]

4. Many times New Hampshire Democrats surprise the rest of us by giving

thoughtful reconsideration of national trends. Sometimes they prefer the established candidate over the more-maverick challenger (Al Gore over Bill Bradley); other times they go with the challenger over the party's pick (Gary Hart over Walter Mondale).

Eugene McCarthy did well in NH. So did Paul Tsongas.

This year it feels to me as if both Iowa and New Hampshire are foggy and unsettled and volatile and unpredictable. If Sen. Clinton is leading in New Hampshire by a stronger margin than in Iowa, what happens to that percentage differential if she is not first in Iowa?

Or second. Or third. Or fourth.

She could win in Iowa by anywhere from 10% or more or 10 single votes; or she could find herself in fifth place behind (in who knows what order) Edwards, Biden, Richardson, and Obama, but all of them within a point or less in the totals.

It could be that close.