RE: Obama - Time running out for the making of a black President

[wyldwolf]

the fact is Obama's campaign appears to be caught in the doldrums. Beneath all the endless public appearances, television interviews and the hype of 'Obama-mania' lies a story of a campaign that has completely failed to budge Clinton out of her position as frontrunner. Indeed, Obama has barely moved in the polls since he exploded onto the political scene when he announced his candidacy earlier this year. It is Clinton's poll numbers that have recently been nudging ever higher, not Obama's.

The story of the Democratic race since Obama entered the field has not been one of a fierce battle or the much expected roller-coaster ride. Instead it has been a long, steady march of the Clinton machine, keeping other candidates at arm's length and building an ever larger lead in the polls. 'There is a long way to go, but at this moment the race remains hers to lose,' said Larry Haas, a political commentator and former official in the Clinton White House.

A survey of recent polls shows Clinton in commanding form compared with all of her rivals. The most recent national polls show her with a lead over Obama that ranges from 14 per cent to 22 per cent. A Gallup survey had her on a whopping 47 per cent, against Obama's 25 per cent and John Edwards's meagre 11 per cent. No other Democrat scored more than 5 per cent. Clinton is also ahead by about 20 points in New Hampshire and has recently moved ahead of Edwards in the key first voting state of Iowa, where Edwards has been virtually camped out for the past two years.

In fact, Obama has not led the polls in any state recently, not even South Carolina, where many black voters are expected to back him in his quest to be America's first black President. That has raised serious questions over whether Obama can actually appeal to black voters. Some of them have been put off by questions over the 'American blackness' of Obama's background, owing to his mixed parentage of a white Kansan mother and a Kenyan father. In the meantime, Clinton has sought to capitalise on the still huge popularity among many blacks of her husband's time in the Oval Office.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2180303,00.html

[jefferson_dem]

1. Just goes to show you the Brits still haven't figured out us Colonials...

They're thinking about their own super-brief campaign seasons.

Here --- "We've only just begun to fight!"

[MannyGoldstein]

2. People Who've Decided, Have Decided For Obama

Of course, polls mean zero this far out. Absolutely zero.

However, based on http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3011177">this, as well as fundraising numbers, it looks like those who have decided are solidly in favor of Obama.

[wyldwolf]

4. Except polls show Clinton supporters are the most decided

:eyes:

Sorry, Manny.

[MannyGoldstein]

6. That's A Different Statistic Entirely

And far less important.

[wyldwolf]

7. no it isn't. It shows supporters of Obama are less sure and decided on their candidate.

[Ethelk2044]

10. That is why he is leading in Iowa.

[Tellurian]

20. Obama is even in Iowa and way behind in the rest.

[Ethelk2044]

Wrong as usual Tell. It is okay I am getting use to you being wrong

General Election polls do not count. It is the state to state polls that matters.

[Tellurian]

23. You're confused as usual Ethel..

Let's straighten this out.

Nationally, Hillary is leading in most every state. The only state showing Obama even close to Hillary is Iowa. Are you saying Obama can win the presidency by having numbers almost equal to Hillary in one state?

:rofl:

[Ethelk2044]

11. Polls show He is leading in Iowa. His base is large and organized

he has proven that time and time again. He will win.

[wyldwolf]

15. which polls?

[durrrty libby]

16. "which polls?" the ones compiled in her dreams

[Ethelk2044]

18. I do not have to dream baby. Maybe that is what you need to do to make sure Hillary

is elected.

[Ethelk2044]

17. Iowa polls of Likely voters They are for Obama!

[Tellurian]

21. Read the fine print- The moe of "likely" voters is +-7%= even with Hillary. Not ahead!

[Ethelk2044]

24. His numbers means he is ahead in regards to likely voters. Also

However, many experts warn that it is far too early to write Obama off, pointing out that there are three months to go before actual voting takes place. Obama's campaign still has many positives. He has raised more money faster than any other Democratic candidate in history, including 75,000 new campaign donors since June alone. He also has a huge and committed campaign organisation, including twice as many offices in Iowa as any other candidate. His public rallies are always attended by thousands of supporters, who show an enthusiasm for their candidate which beats that enjoyed by any of his rivals.

[Tellurian]

26. The facts are, if Obama doesn't Win Iowa...he's finished!

[Tellurian]

27. Here is Obama's problem..

Thanks to Pat Jones:

http://www.webcomicsnation.com/patjones/rockgardencomics/series.php

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. That's Incredibly Sad

I think his election would be a redemptive moment for our nation. I have donated to his campaign and Edwards' campaign...He has a lot of redeeming qualities, is right on most of the big issues, and would be a fine president.


I defend HRC on this board because the attacks on her, imho, are gratuitous, ill informed, illogical, and just plain mean... People that make these attacks should check themselves but I suspect they don't give a fuck and don't care who they alienate...

[EffieBlack]

25. I don't think it's that sad . . .

If he doesn't make it, this doesn't mean that no other black candidate (or he, himself) won't ever succeed. Progress is a process. He's doing an incredible job and running a great credible, viable campaign. But only one person can win. If he doesn't win this time around (and, of course, he still can - it's still WAY early in the game), he will still have changed the face of presidential politics forever. But please don't be discouraged.

If he loses, it won't necessary be because he's black or that the country hasn't made progress. There are all sorts of reasons that he could lose - white men have been losing presidential elections for centuries. :-)

BTW, I agree with you about the nasty attacks. It's really sad.

[BeyondGeography]

5. More "time is running out" inanity

Anyone who says that in the September prior to a primary season abut any credible candidate with a well-funded, highly-organized campaign has either never witnessed an American election or is willfully ignorant.

[madrchsod]

8. well leave to the limeys

to point out that because obama is "half black" he`s not as popular with "real blacks". so a white woman has to ride on her husbands coat tails because he was popular with "real black" people. i can read this same shit at stormfront

[Ethelk2044]

9. Time is on his side. Obama is leading in Iowa and he will lead in NH and SC

He will be the next president. The polls are not polling everyone.

[ecstatic]

12. Ugggh... SICK and tired of the "is Obama black enough" meme

:eyes:

I know that's not the focus of the article, but it was mentioned at the bottom. His support (or lack thereof) from black voters is more so a reflection of "is America racist enough." Nothing more, nothing less.

[Ethelk2044]

13. Obama is doing well in the black community. As they realize he is AA they

are moving over to him more and more.

[lojasmo]

14. Tied in Iowa, and has outraised Clinton by several million every quarter.

The fat lady hasn't even warmed up.

[Enrique]

19. I think both Obama and Edwards are real threats to Hillary

I don't expect there to be much movement in the polls right up to the primaries, but the actual primaries are up for grabs.

[Tellurian]

22. Edwards is out of money..

If he wins the Primary, we lose the general because he doesn't have the funds to fight off Republican attacks for 5 mos until just before the election. By then, it will be too late for us.

Obama is behind in every state except he's even in Iowa.. Here is the latest nationwide poll.

[Imagevision]

28. I believe Obama will out distance Hillary easily in the home stretch, which

is the smart way to run a race, don't give the opponent a chance to regroup when time will have already have run out... GO Obama!!!