Seeing Blue

[babylonsister]

Seeing Blue

By John Maggs, National Journal
Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2007


In the low desert valleys of Arizona's Pinal County, the cotton fields seem to stretch forever. Pinal is traditionally one of the nation's top 10 cotton-producing counties. It is also a large grower of wheat, melons, potatoes, and chili peppers. Each year, ranchers raise more than 30,000 sheep and 240,000 head of cattle.

The county is the agricultural heart of Arizona because of two resources in short supply elsewhere in the state. The first is water: The Gila River gathers runoff from the mountains of New Mexico and flows west, right through the middle of Pinal. The county's farmers tap most of it, reducing the Gila to a trickle as it nears Phoenix. More surprisingly, the second resource is land. Only about 15 percent of Arizona's 118,000 square miles is privately owned, with the rest taken up by national and state reserves, military bases, and Indian reservations.

In the county, large tracts of private land and the water to irrigate it have made Pinal a better place to farm. These advantages are also crucial to Pinal's newest bumper crop: subdivisions. Pinal is the fastest-growing county in the nation, according to the latest Census Bureau numbers. In the 12 months through July 2006, Pinal's population surged 16.6 percent, and growth has barely slowed in the past year, according to Stan Barnes, a former state legislator who grew up there. Despite the subprime-mortgage crisis, thousands of new homes are slated for development, he said, to feed the demand from Tucson, to the south, and Phoenix, to the north. The snowmelt that now fattens cantaloupes and honeydews will soon be watering lawns and football fields.

In 2004, Pinal County and other fast-growing exurbs were a large part of the reason that President Bush won a second term. Bush captured an astounding 97 of the 100 fastest-growing counties in the United States. Although many were in states not in contention -- California, Georgia, and Texas, for example -- a good number were in states vital to his victory, such as Florida.

But the political landscape is changing in Pinal County and beyond. Arizona is in play for Democrats in 2008, part of a shift in previously safe Republican states that is redrawing the electoral map and reordering the campaign plans of presidential candidates in both major parties. In the Mountain West, Arizona isn't the only fast-growing state now up for grabs. So is Colorado. And two neighboring states that were already closely divided -- Nevada and New Mexico -- will benefit from the extra attention that Democrats will pay their region.

Bigger Than Ohio
In 2000, Bush won Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada and lost New Mexico by a razor-thin margin. Four years later, he carried all four states. Flip Arizona and Colorado into the Democrats' column in 2004, and John Kerry would be president today. If Democrats grab any three of the four in 2008, they can more or less erase a potential loss in Ohio with its 20 electoral votes. With all four they can more than counter Florida's 27 electoral votes. And add to the mix the 13 electoral votes in Virginia, where local races and demographic trends are moving in the Democrats' direction.

more...

http://news.nationaljournal.com/articles/071002nj1.htm