Parsing the Polls: Inside the Clinton Surge

[William769]

Clinton, as the Post's Anne Kornblut and Jon Cohen write in today's newspaper, has opened up a whopping 53 percent to 20 percent lead over Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in the Democratic presidential primary fight with former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) even farther behind with 13 percent. Compare that to the Post's early September survey in which Clinton took 41 percent to 27 percent for Obama and 14 percent for Edwards.

On their face, Clinton's numbers are impressive -- over 50 percent in an eight-way contest is a remarkable achievement at any level but much more so in a presidential contest. But, look deeper into the numbers -- as we can thanks to Cohen and polling anaylst Jennifer Agiesta -- and the strength of the New York Democrat's campaign becomes even more apparent.

Let's Parse the Polls!

An in-depth look at the Post/ABC News poll shows that Clinton has simultaneously increased her margins among her previously strong democraphic groups while shoring up any and all of her problem areas.

Women continue to be the bedrock of Clinton's campaign strength; she takes 57 percent among women compared to 15 percent for Obama and 13 percent for Edwards. But, among men, too, her numbers have ticked up considerably and she now leads Obama 48 percent to 26 percent. In the Post poll earlies this month, Clinton received just 29 percent among men while in our July survey she drew 40 percent among men.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/?hpid=topnews

It should also be noted that that those saying thay want "new direction, new Ideas" Hillary also leads.

[Alamom]

1. Very informative. Thanks. nm

[groovedaddy]

2. I sometimes wish that polls weren't publicized

just to see if elections turned out differently without them. Yes, it's an impossible dream, but I'll dream it anyway.

[CTyankee]

3. No, I'm glad they ARE published. I want to see what our chances are with each

Dem candidate. I like to see them cut fine with respect to all the pertinent areas of policy and how the candidates come across to voters.

But I am assuming this poll is just among Democrats. If so, it doesn't tell us too much about the GE.

[groovedaddy]

6. Well, I guess that's where the "parsing" comes in

My concern is that exit polling almost always shows that the number 1 reason given for why voters picked a certain candidate is because they thought they were going to win. I think that's for the general election, not so much so in primaries.
I guess the underlying issue is how much attention voters pay to candidates position on issues, again, far more important in primaries than generals.

[CTyankee]

20. As an old Democrat, I have watched the candidates who were good on issues

get smeared and smacked down in the GE. That experience has had a sobering effect on me over the years. I was stunned over and over again at how easy and skillful the RW is at turning things inside out on Dem candidates. It's horrific.

So now I want to see where a candidate's fault lines might be and whether they can be blown into canyons during the GE. Which is why I have been so reserved on HC. She has been pretty masterful so far (it looks like her "cackle" is old news now). Bottom line, I'd rather see her as president than any Repub. but I am supporting JE at this time.

[William769]

4. Amazing this thread is being avoided like the plague.

What? No one wants to dispute the numbers?

[robcon]

5. The numbers are outliers.

I always hesitate to grant credibility to a poll which is 10 pts. higher than other polls (in terms of Clinton's lead.)

This is the kind of result that has to be confirmed by other polls before that kind of lead is to be credible. Most others say about 20 points... 33 is too much to believe based on one poll.

[William769]

7. Polls have been consistent all year,

:shrug:

[robcon]

9. Consistent all year??????? There have been dramatic changes.

At one time Clinton and Obama were neck and neck.

The only thing consistent has been Clintons's steady separation from the other candidates since then. In other words, the polls have been changing dramatically (not being consistent.) But I don't think we should accept one poll as having set the new 'distance' at 33 points unless it is confirmed by other polls.

[William769]

10. Yes they have been consistent.

Yes at one time they were neck and neck and the different polls confirmed it.

[robcon]

13. Oh... I thought you meant by consistent, similar results over time.

If you mean similar results at each point in time in a cross-section of the various polls, I agree.

So we await (perhaps you might say, expect) confirmation by other polls of the 30+ point lead.

[CTyankee]

21. Well, I don't know. 1,114 people polled. MOE at 3%.

So it is not that small a sampling. However, it is a nationwide poll, and since I am not a polling expert, I do wonder if it isn't somewhat small over such a large population.

[truebrit71]

11. No-one wants HRC as the nominee...

...because she will get crushed....

I don't want another GOP'er in the WH in '08, and the ONLY why that happens is if Whitewater/VinceFoster/MonicaLewsinsky/MarcRich - Clinton gets the nomination...

Her policy ideas and her war voting record suck too, but that is an aside to the truth that NOBODY but HRC will motivate the GOP-base to go and vote in droves...even for a mormon or a cross-dressing serial marrier if it means beating a Clinton...something they've never done at the polls yet...

24/7 Hate-Hillary on every single frickin' channel of the MSM for MONTHS and MONTHS....Sorry, been there, done that...

No thanks. We've already had one Clinton in the WH, and that's just enough thanks...

Time for a change.

[William769]

12. With his approval rating being one of the highest ever leaving office, I can't wait for another

Clinton to occupy the White House. :)

[truebrit71]

14. How'd that NAFTA thing work out for ya?

..No thanks...No more corporatists in the WH thank you very much....

[William769]

16. The people love him, and they love Hillary also.

Hillary is 44. :)

[mrreowwr_kittty]

17. Answer his question. How's NAFTA working out? nt

[William769]

18. Hillary already answered it.

Are you the SS BTW? Telling me what to do?

[truebrit71]

19. It'd be nice if you answered a straight forward question though...

...something I've had trouble getting from other HRCistas on this board as well...

[mrreowwr_kittty]

23. He can't because there is no answer

Clinton is a "free trader". She will push for more of it, while telling us it's good for our economy, just like her husband.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

22. Are you in the OTE?

Overreact To Everything?

[emilyg]

27. I do.

[yodermon]

29. The Corporations want her, so they'll get her.

Repukes are no longer profitable. HCR/DLC will keep the gravy train flowing. The corp. elite understand that a permanent repuke lock on the WH is impossible, so this is how they shift.

Don't worry, we'll still have a War President.

[oasis]

15. Well....uh...uh...gasp....k&r then.

:bounce:

[jmp]

8. I conduct my own poll.

A poll of one. Me. In my poll Hillary has gone from 1st place to simply not viable.

The whole damn rest of the world may vote for her ... but I won't.

[ProudDad]

24. Nor I

You are NOT alone...

And she'll probably be able to do the typical Democrat trick of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory next November too...

[William769]

25. Thats the spirit!

[ProudDad]

26. Hey, just reflecting the opinion of the majority

of folks who will probably vote in '08...

But, you can't handle the truth...

[Tellurian]

28. Her poll ratings are at 53%

DU as we know, doesn't reflect the average voter across the nation.

[truebrit71]

31. ...and her UNfavourables?....much MUCH higher than any other Dem...

....she is POISON...

[Tellurian]

32. Yep, POISON to the Republicans

and if you buy into the dumb unfavorable argument, you won't be any help at all.

[truebrit71]

33. Sorry mate...POISON to the Dems...she MOTIVATES the GOP base...why don't you HRC-istas get that?

I just don't get why you lot can't get it though your skull just HOW much the right-wing HATE this woman...They will do ANYTHING to make sure she doesn't get in the WH....

[Tellurian]

34. Hate is not a motivating factor in Hillary's campaign... WINNING IS!!!

and she CAN WIN!

In case you haven't heard, the GOP is splintering as we speak. Most of Bush's strength came from the Evangelicals. Since he never delivered to them as promised, they're going elsewhere. It's the Green Party (gone Holy) all over again that will sink the GOP for a very long time. Just like they tried with Gore.

[truebrit71]

35. .

Pass the kool-aid....:eyes:

[Tellurian]

37. Pass the popcorn... and watch the show..

[rinsd]

36. Much much higher than any other Dems? Guess again.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

She has the highest negatives at 46, but right behind her are Obama & Edwards at 43% and Biden at 40%.

Clinton has the 2nd highest net approval rating at +6 (Obama is at +8)

[ProudDad]

38. Correct

the "average" vote in the nation can't stand her...

[Nedsdag]

30. I'm not keen on her either.

I don't want to be force fed something I don't like.

By the way Hillary supporters, don't bring up the Supreme Court to me. If John Paul Stevens suddenly drops dead tomorrow, Bush would still have final say on who goes on the court.

[Clintonista2]

39. POLLS ARE PSEUDO SCIENCE!!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=3573937#3575550

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Zandor]

40. They called me and didn't include Kucinich

:rofl: