Quinnipiac: Without Hillary as the nominee...Guiliani puts NY in play...

[SaveElmer]

In line with the recent SurveyUSA poll...

October 03, 2007

POLL: Quinnipiac New York Primary, General Election

A new Quinnipiac University statewide survey of 1,504 registered voters in New York State (conducted 9/24 through 9/30) finds:

* Among 637 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (47% to 15%) in a statewide primary; former V.P. Al Gore trails at 9%, former Sen. John Edwards trails at 7%.

* Among 476 Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 48%) leads Sen. John McCain and former Sen. Fred Thompson (both at 8%) in a statewide primary; former Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Gov. Mitt Romney both trails at 5%.

* All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

* General election match-ups:

Clinton 52%, Giuliani 41%
Obama 45%, Giuliani 45% (tie)
Giuliani 45%, Edwards 44%

[Taverner]

1. One of the big reasons I like Clinton

She keeps the ghoul from getting NY

[mdmc]

2. BULLSHIT

we could run Zell Miller vs. Rudy and still win NYS.
My God, there is no way that the Dems can lose NYS. It has nothing to do with HRC.

[SaveElmer]

3. And your evidence for that is?

In fact this result is playing out all over the northeast...if Guiliani is the nominee and we nominat Obama and Edwards, the northeast will be a tougher fight than we want...

[Clintonista2]

7. Haven't you heard? "Opinion" is the new "evidence" for the haters. nt.

[mdmc]

13. It is all opinion

And hatred. I really can't stand the thought of HRC back in the White House.
I do, however, relish the fact that the radical Lefts hatred for Hillary pales in comparison to the hatred of the right wing toward HRC.
It will be fun to see the wingnuts freak on the whole HRC thing.

Ironically, in real life (among my friends, family, co-workers, fellow County Democratic Committee members) I am know as the Hillary guy due to my work on her first Senate campaign and former love of her willingness to stand by her man and not bring down the BigDog.

I bitch about her lack of liberalism or progressive leadership here on DU, but I am silent in real life about these issues.
All the local dems (even the ones that can't stand her, like me) are supporting HRC for President. Her election is inevitable, and no one wants to stand up against her if we all know that she will win.

[mdmc]

25. I really do hate the idea of HRC in the white house

=the wing nuts won't support a liberal - upstate NY wingnuts know the Hillary is going to win their electoral vote. Upstate NY wingnuts will vote for a true conservative (=protest vote) over Rudy.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1974028

any dem will beat Rudy in NYS, especially if there is a third party conservative running in the race. <- this is opinion as well, but will be fact after the election.

[mdmc]

8. First off, no one, no combination, can beat Hillary Clinton

Second, Rudy has lost some of his 9-11 glow. He won't be able to carry NYS.

I have no evidence to back up my opinions.

As a NY liberal I am disgusted by the thought of Hillary winning the White House. But I guess she would be better then Ghouliani. Both HRC and Rudy would be better then Bush.

I have no doubt that the Dems will take NYS electoral votes. No matter who we run, no matter who the GOP runs.

[mdmc]

24. here you go my friend

the wing nuts won't support a liberal - upstate NY wingnuts know the Hillary is going to win their electoral vote. Upstate NY wingnuts will vote for a true conservative (=protest vote) over Rudy.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1974028

any dem will beat Rudy in NYS, especially if there is a third party conservative running in the race.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Don't Understand

Do you think Rudy can't run a competitive race in NY?

[mdmc]

14. Yes

Rudy cant win against Zell Miller in NY. Well, maybe against Zell, but not against any of the 2008 Dems (well, maybe Gravel or DK... cause they are just to real to deal).

[MADem]

5. The city, maybe--but not the state. That jerk has friends in upstate and the burbs.

HRC had to overcome a shitload of resistance in those areas. Now, if she were out of the picture, it COULD be an influencer--depending on why she left the race, of course. Politics is situational.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Hillary Could Whip Rudy In NY...

I'm not so sure the other candidates could...

It would be interesting...

I don't think a Dem has won the presidency without NY is the past one hundred years or so...Ooops...Truman did...Dewey carried NY...

[mdmc]

16. Red NY really hates HRC. She will still win vs. Rudy or any other GOP

The Dems will win NYS, no matter who we run. No matter who the GOP runs.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Somebody Should Post A Link One Way Or The Other

Her campaign said she carried a lot of the same upstate counties that Bush* carried in 04...

Somebody is incorrect...

[mdmc]

18. You mean for Senate reelection?

Both her and Spitzer carried mad, mad uber Red areas. To be honest, I have no idea what losers the GOP ran against the two.

Spitzer won with over 70% of the vote. The GOP was all locked up with Bush and couldn't do a thing right in 2007.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Yeah...

I just think you're "misunderestimsating" Rudy's appeal a bit...He actually puts NY, CT, and NJ in play; at least according to the polls I saw...

Anyway. it too early to be talking about the general...

Oh, Rudy would be worse than Bush...They are both cut from the same sociopathic cloth...

[mdmc]

20. I feel like I have a good read on NYS

I can't imagine NYS going red. For anyone.
Hillary will win in 2008, imho.
Rudy wouldn't beat any on the top tier dems in NYS.
The war and the economy won't allow the GOP to make gains in NYS (imho).

It is all opinion, of course. I could create statistics to prove it (damned lies!)

Anyway, peace and low stress.

[Lucinda]

6. I just don't see how Rudy can really have true traction against

any of them in NY. I would think that one good commercial in NY could wipe him out.

What do you think the perception of him is based on? NY being that pro-Rudy or just not knowing enough about Edwards and Obama yet?

[Hippo_Tron]

10. That's before Rudy starts defending this war

Polls tighten as it gets closer to November and voters go back to voting party affiliation. Rudy may make us spend money in the state but he won't take it.

[zulchzulu]

11. Obama would make Giuliani marry himself in disgrace if Rudy was the nominee

Besides, Rudy will not be the GOP nominee. You can count on that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. It's Going To Be Rudy, Freddy, Or The Mittster...

Freddy is the conventional choice but gawd, he's an idiot...How did he ever graduate from law school? pass the bar exam?

It could be Rudy... Too early to tell...

[Tellurian]

21. Obama has enough of his own problems getting himself out of the doldrums

of a seriously destabilized campaign..

Never mind taking on an opponent.

[William769]

15. Thanks.

[Tellurian]

22. Great pic.William..

keep it flying... :hi:

[William769]

23. Trust me, I will!

:hi:

[rinsd]

26. Here's a link to the Survey USA NY poll

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=a664ac38-9086-4716-ac4b-474af4d78468