The Politico: Democrats grapple with the fear factor
By: David Paul Kuhn
Oct 3, 2007
For Democrats, things rarely get much better than this. In 2008, they’ll be running to succeed an unpopular incumbent, against an opposition that has rarely been more disorganized or dispirited. Polls show a Democratic advantage on major issues nearly across the board. Amid all these favorable signs, it’s only natural that some of the party’s top strategists would be pondering the same question: Wonder how we’ll screw it up this time?
“We are a little bit of a shellshocked political party. We somehow or another always figure out a way to blow it,” Democratic strategist James Carville said. “Democrats have to talk their way out of winning.” Carville was not exactly serious but not exactly kidding. Even as all the trends seem to be breaking their way, Democrats still sound a bit like a boy who has been beaten up too many times on the playground: certain another punch is coming.
It’s more than paranoia. After all, many of the formulas political scientists use to predict elections suggested Democrats would take the White House in 2000 and 2004.
And it remains a fact that the party — even during two terms of Bill Clinton — has not broken 50 percent of the vote in a presidential election in more than 30 years, and it has done it only twice in the past 60 years. Plus, there’s plenty of precedent for a seemingly insurmountable lead (remember President Michael Dukakis from the summer of 1988?) to evaporate in the blink of an eye.
“No matter how the stars are aligned now, the stars keep moving,” said Mario Cuomo, the former New York governor and almost presidential candidate....
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