Is Obama doing better than you think?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

Do the poll companies have all Democratic Party voters' cell phone numbers? Are they getting a true picture of what is going on? It would seem the media is doing a successful knife job on him 'oh look how he is losing' Judging by the good turnout for his rallies it makes one wonder if the polls are inaccurate?

[depakid]

1. Cell numbers are not included

One of MANY systemic biases built into cheap media polls.

[Colobo]

2. We will see...

[AtomicKitten]

3. Cell phones definitely put a monkey-wrench in polling.

It is entirely possible the "representative samples" are, in fact, not representative at all.

[zulchzulu]

4. Obama campaign has a solid organization in the first four states...

...with new offices in the February 5th 08 states now.

Watching the national polls at this point has about as much value as monitoring your toilet water level with a slide rule.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

5. I haven't seen all the local polls (email) within state Democratic Parties

only MD (way back in May) when Obama was leading.

http://www.mddems.com/presidentresults.php

I guess I should do some more research.

[Ethelk2044]

22. Have family members in MD. They are stating the same thing. He should take MD easily.

[emilyg]

7. Well then pray tell - why are Obama supporters so upset by the polls?

[ripple]

20. I can't speak for other Obama supporters,

but I'm personally tired of the media taking these poll numbers and making it seem as though the primaries have already occurred. Such tactics undermine voter confidence in the viability of other candidates and encourage people to get behind the 'winning' candidate, or worse, just to stay home.

[illinoisprogressive]

6. Clintonista and Penn partner, Doug Schoen, works for Rassmuessen

[BenDavid]

10. Oh, so every poll that shows hrc in the lead

is being manipulated to show HRC has the lead....Excuse me but what you going to do about the state polls can show HRC in the lead in Iowa, in New Hapshire, in South Carolina...Hell, in every state.....All the pollsters there cannot be fudging the numbers for HRC....I would say the numbers are true....and of course there is Peter Hart that does polling, and then you have James Carville and his group that run polls and I am sure he gives the correct polling numbers to HRC and her staff.....There is no fudging of numbers here....

Ben David

[Rosa Luxemburg]

12. I don't think numbers are being fudged

only perhaps lacking some data

[Imagevision]

8. The real question is, if Obama was doing better would the MSM report it???

[Rosa Luxemburg]

11. I guess not

[calteacherguy]

9. Not significantly so. nt

[Bullet1987]

13. Listen, no national poll should be taken too seriously...

and the media is completely taking this Clinton lead out of context. Ignoring the fact that if she loses in Iowa AND New Hampshire (and maybe South Carolina), her campaign is in deep sh*t. You can't take the polling of a state where the candidates have only been once...if at all...very seriously. Because name recognition is going to be the dominant factor. I also personally think polling practices currently in use are slightly outdated and don't take into account how powerful the grassroots have become within the past 4 years or so. Obama may shock some people when the caucuses start and that 33% lead shrinks dramatically.

[rinsd]

14. Here's an artifcle discussing cell phone users

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3571606

[Debi]

17. I don't trust any of those artifcules

fffff :P

Just kiddfing

[rinsd]

19. Oh you are bad!

[Debi]

21. Just trying to inject some lightness

into a mad-crazy DU GD-P :7

[Perry Logan]

15. He's doing better than I ever thought he would. Nice try, Obama.

[Debi]

16. I think Obama is doing well here in Iowa

That being said attendance at rallies don't equal caucus attendees. Several non-registered individuals, No-Party voters and registered republicans attend his rallies. No guarantee they will show up on Caucus night and register as Democrats to caucus for Obama.

He's doing it right, getting folks to sign commitment cards, getting people to sign up as precinct captains and then asking them to go recruit four friends to attend caucus. Personal investment (and I don't just mean $$)by the supporter almost guarantees an attendance at caucus for the candidate.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

18. interesting!

[Stop Cornyn]

23. I worry Obama's support may be more "deep in small pockets" and not "broad across many communities"

and I think the former type of support is why Dean did so much worse than predicted in Iowa.

I worry that Obama's support is the type that polls better than it caucuses.

[Debi]

24. Welcome to DU

:hi:

I think the Obama campaign organizers are aware of what happened with Dean and are doing more follow-up for more concrete support.

[Stop Cornyn]

25. Obama's support in Iowa (like Dean's was in '04) is plenty concrete. The problem isn't a lack of

concreteness.

The problem is that if candidate "A" has 100 supporters and 10 show up at 10 different rural caucuses, that can be a better model than if candidate "B" has 150 supporters and 50 show up at 3 different urban caucuses.

I am concerned for Obama that he has pockets of intense support that is geographically concentrated so his polling may overstate is caucus performance.

[FlaxieB]

26. One word: Media.