WP/ABC News poll in which Clinton broke 50% is likely an outlier, expert pollster says

[antiimperialist]

Mark Blumenthal, a Political science graduate for the U. of Michigan, also known as "Mystery Pollster", and who has been analyzing political polls for 19 years, has made a thorough analysis of the Washington Post/ABC News poll in which Hillary Clinton appears with a 33% lead over Barack Obama, her nearest rival.
Blumenthal concluded that:

Of course, we do not yet know whether this poll is really a statistical outlier. Other polls have obviously been showing a more gradual increase in her support recently, and it is still theoretically possible that Clinton's support suddenly lurched up ten points last week. Senator Clinton had appeared on all of the Sunday morning talk shows on September 23, just four days before this poll went into the field. Earlier that week sho also rolled out her plan to reform health care, an issue that ABC/Post and other polls confirm as one her great perceived strengths. But a sudden upward surge of this magnitude does not seem very likely, if only because no other news event so far this year has caused anywhere near as much change in the Democratic race.

We should know soon enough. Unfortunately, the AP-IPSOS survey released yesterday does not help resolve this issue, as Clinton's Sunday talk show tour de force occurred in the middle of their field period and (I'm told) after they had completed most of the interviews on the main sample.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/abcpost_poll_surge_or_outlier.php

[wyldwolf]

1. well, of course it is. Other polls have her at 43-48%.

It's really the other findings in the poll that are fascinating.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Garbage in. Garbage out.

Of course, not only the head-to-head numbers are skewed. The whole thing is crapola.

[laureloak]

2. Of course 90% are still undecided.

[MonkeyFunk]

16. Is it up to 90% now?

Somebody else keeps posting that it's 70%.

Of course, in the polls themselves, the "undecided" response is under 10%. But anything to discount polls whose results you don't like.

[calteacherguy]

18. LOL. Yeah, right.

:rofl:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. Almost certainly an outlier to some degree. She's probably at 44%-48%

[Me.]

5. So What's The Thinking Here?

That people will play follow the leader based on the highest poll numbers? Is it a psychology thing, trying to coax others into thinking she has it down already and everybody should just fall in line?

[wyldwolf]

12. Outliers happen from time to time. Obama benefitted from one last summer

One Gallup suddenly showed Obama 2 or 3 points ahead of Clinton. The next Gallup poll had Obama down 10 or so points again. Of course, someone immediately said Gallup was rigging polls. :eyes:

[illinoisprogressive]

6. I found a unaffilated polling site that had clinton at 30.

I posted but, no one looked at it. It shows clinton at 30 and Obama at 21.
I have my doubts on polls alot because doug schoen who is partners with Mark Penn is working for Rassmuessen and other clintonistas are in strategic places. I don't trust any of them until it can be proved not to be influenced.

http://www.pollingreport.com/index.html

[wyldwolf]

7. You 'found' pollingreport? OK... you might want to sit down for this

1. Pollingreport posts the poll results of all national polls and everyone knows about it.
2. There is no current poll there that shows Clinton 30 and Obama 21 for the Democratic nomination.
3. The stat you've misquoted came from the ABC/WaPo poll.

[Colobo]

10. How are you, wyldie?

[wyldwolf]

15. I'm great!

Just came back the executive meeting of the PAC I belong to where we planned multi-neighborhood canvassing in November. Plus, we may have CSPAN cover our general meeting next week when Dr. Drew Westen speaks. You should hop on a plane and come check it out.

[Colobo]

17. Where do you live?

[wyldwolf]

20. North Atlanta

[antiimperialist]

9. That's a different question

The 30% figure for clinton and 21% for Obama refers to those who definitely (or so they say) will vote for X candidate

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Please Don't Confuse Her With Facts. It Will Only Make Her Upset

My parents taught me it's best to leave folks like that alone.

[Colobo]

8. Good to know.

[Ethelk2044]

11. someone has some common sense

[laureloak]

13. Does that mean they're "out and out liars?"

[weeve]

19. Big media ...

... who sponsor most of these polls, have been pimping Hillary as the "inevitable" nominee for almost two years now. Does anyone ever really wonder WHY ? Have we already forgotten what happened with these very media outlets in the wee hours of the 2004 election night ? And now we're supposed to meekly accept their current polling ?

Fool me once ...

[The Backlash Cometh]

21. Interesting. I'm glad someone is looking at the methodology.

Hillary should be thankful. It's the only way to substantiate the integrity of the numbers.