If Kerry doesn't clinch it on Super Tuesday, he's got a big problem

[PurityOfEssence]

The following set of primaries is comprised of Texas, Louisiana, Florida and Mississippi. (Okay, American Samoa votes the day before, but let's be serious...)

If Kerry can't conclusively put Edwards away on March 2nd, he's got the Deep South to contend with, and that could crush him. The "Massachusetts Liberal" issue is a very real thing, and people who don't think so are in serious denial.

Sadly, though, the momentum and schedule are a hell of a problem, and Edwards isn't even on the ballot in Rhode Island. Yeah, it's the smallest state, but it's something like number 40 in population, and it's a traditionally liberal stronghold and yet another contest. (I grew up there, and it almost went for McGovern at the time.)

At some point the continuing war chant of the number of primaries/caucuses won becomes overwhelming.

Edwards can beat Bush much more handily than Kerry.

[lancdem]

1. I'm not sure I agree Edwards can beat Bush more handily

than Kerry. I think Kerry can match up with Bush better on foreign policy than Edwards can while Edwards might be stronger on the economy and other domestic issues than Kerry. That's my opinion, BTW. :)

[GumboYaYa]

3. I haven't gotten the map out in a while, but from an electoral

perspective, it seems Edwards has a much better shot at an electoral vote landslide than Kerry.

[PurityOfEssence]

5. Try it this way:

Although you hit the two points of contrast, Edwards is by far more personable and has a broader appeal across demographics. Southerners who would rather be fricasseed than vote for some Massachusetts liberal will have no problem voting for Edwards, and doing so en masse. Rural voters have no particular reason to vote for voting for some citified egghead like Kerry, but will love Edwards, especially if they hear of the rural planks in his platform.

For sheer oomph and star quality, Edwards takes it with no reasonable dispute in sight. Many people vote simply on that, and that's huge.

Finally, think of the debate with Junior: Kerry will be dour rectitude, and although he may show Junior to be a flake and a dick, his patrician image will be off-putting to the bumpkin crowd. Edwards, on the other hand, trumps ALL OF BUSH'S STRONG SUITS: he's more personable, he's more likable and twinkly, he's more of a common guy, he's a real southerner and he comes from the working class. He will also obliterate Smirky because he's a much better debater than Kerry. The all-important moment of the toe-to-toe debate will be one where Kerry is all alone up there, without firefighters or veterans.

Edwards, on just the visceral "who's more likable" question wins hands down. Ask people, you'll see.

2. shhhhhh

haven't you read the script?

I'm only half kidding.

[Walt Starr]

4. Yep, I'm hoping Super Tuesday Dean voters

go for Edwards to stop Kerry.

[Finch]

6. I don’t think Kerry

Southernsrn done but if Edwards can pull off wins in GA, OH and on a wing and a prayer NY and possibly MD…he could well sweep “southern Tuesday” a week later… the media would love it and give a hell of a lot of time over the “EdwardsLazarusrus” story, this would lead to the question of what was wrong with Kerry for Dem voters and in turn this would boost Edwards as the only thing that can be directly seen as wrong with Kerry is the sense that he will come across as an effete north-eastern liberal… such a singling out of the cultural problems would only boost Edwards going into the southern states and in the end this could lead to a darn interesting race… I doubt even after an Edwards sweep on “Southern Tuesday” that Kerry would lose to Edwards… but it would be interesting… by the way either Edwards or Kerry preferably a Kerry/ Edwards ticket I’m happy… both have weaknesses but then again which candidate doesn’t…if one of the two is stronger overall then Id say it would be Kerry but I’m really hopping for a race now…then again I did vote for Edwards here in MO…