Clinton is far from 'inevitable'

[Omaha Steve]

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/10/05/clinton_is_far_from_inevitable/

By Scot Lehigh | October 5, 2007

PREPARING TO leave Iowa just before the 2004 caucuses, I picked up the national newsweeklies to read on the plane. One story in particular caught my eye: a cover piece on Howard Dean that, in exploring how he might match up against George W. Bush and speculating about possible VP choices, conveyed the unmistakable impression that the good doctor had the Democratic nomination pretty much wrapped up.

There's a lesson there at a time when some pundits and prognosticators (and even presidents) are starting to view Hillary Clinton as a formidable force on a glide path to the 2008 Democratic nod.

Certainly Clinton has good reason to be pleased with her recent progress. Her healthcare plan played to strong reviews, her latest fund-raising total bested Barack Obama's, and a new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows her not just with a large lead over her Democratic rivals, but also beating Republican front-runner Rudy Giuliani by eight points.

Further, the profusion of primary contests slated for Feb. 5 should impart a real advantage to a well-financed front-runner - as long as she emerges from the first few contests intact, that is.

But if Clinton is in an enviable position, she is far from inevitable.

Just ask Gary Hart.

FULL story at link.

[BobRossi]

1. If prayers are answered.

She is out of it by January.

[elizm]

5. On a wing and a prayer. nt

[Yael]

25. If only...

[MannyGoldstein]

2. Yeah, But What About Paul Tsongas And Howard Dean?

Kinda shoots down your Gary Hart example, hah!

:sarcasm:

[calteacherguy]

3. She's a completely different type of candidate than Howard Dean or Gary Hart.

Plus, the dynamic this year is very different. I don't feel these comparisons are valid.

The truth is, she's a hell of a lot closer to inevitable than she is far from it.

[saracat]

4. Like she is a lot closer to Rudy than she is different?

So it is inevitable we will have a Rudy sound alike for Prez regardless of party?

[calteacherguy]

6. I don't think you've visited both of these candidates websites. nt

[saracat]

10. Actually I have ! I don't like either candidate for Prez. They have some

minoe differences if you can believe either.

[calteacherguy]

12. minoe? Do you mean minor?

I'd hardly call the differences minor.

[saracat]

14. Minor.They are minor.

[calteacherguy]

21. No, they certainly are not. They are major philosophical and political differences. nt

[Joe the Revelator]

7. Contrast 2004

Aside from the schedule, which really doesn't change anything with Iowa and NH being first, how is this primary season any different?

[Carrieyazel]

24. But she's nowhere near inevitable in a general election.

That's why we have to hold on here and not annoit her. Her many vulnerabilites that could keep us out of the White House must be laid out.

[SaveElmer]

8. The only people I hear talking about ineviitablilty...

Are non Clinton supporters...

[illinoisprogressive]

9. Democrats do not like being told who to vote for or have their candidate picked for them

because the media picked Hillary as our candidate years ago, they expect us to fall in line with this and they make sure to remind us and keep her name before us with daily stories of how golden Hillary is.
However, unlike Republicans who do fall into line and voted for Bush because they were propagandized to, democrats tend to rebel.
Billing yourself as Inevitable is a dangerous thing in this party.

[robcon]

13. Who billed her as "inevitable?"

illinoisprogressive wrote "Billing yourself as Inevitable is a dangerous thing in this party."

I challenge you to find any reason, quote or link that makes you believe that Clinton is billing herself as inevitable.

I challenge you to find a Clinton supporter on DU who thinks the nomination is already decided.

Those 'beliefs' are the posts of anti-Clinton posters. The idea that she is inevitable is only posted in anti-Clinton posts. They are only and exclusively strawmen arguments set up by anti-Clinton posters just so they can be shot down by themselves and other anti-Clinton DUers.

Find one post by a pro-Clinton DUer that suggests the campaign is a slam dunk. Not one that celebrates an encouraging poll or another endorsement for Clinton - find just ONE POST that a pro-Clinton DUer claims that the nomination process is essentially over.

[emilyg]

15. Consider the source. That poster is always misinformed.

[Capn Sunshine]

16. well, since you've been out of town since February

I'll fill you in. As a member of the DCC of California, I attended the Democratic Party convention, which featured candidate group meetings. At the Hillary meeting for her supporters, it was laid out as a strategy: "Our strategy will be to portray to Democrats everywhere that that Hillary's candidacy is so strong , it's inevitable"

And don't swing a dead cat around here, you'll hit a Hillary supporter who thinks the race is decided.

Why you're indignant about it is the only mystery left.

[robcon]

18. Name one, just one.

You claim: "And don't swing a dead cat around here, you'll hit a Hillary supporter who thinks the race is decided. "

FIND JUST ONE WHO'S SAID OR IMPLIED THAT. Not one who "thinks" that, according to your mind-reading apparatus, but link to a post that SAYS that.

[jgraz]

11. Well, we're really going to have to work to "evit" her

I just worry that she'll coast through based on the split in the majority anti-Hillary vote.

[Flea]

17. What?????

The media has told me she has won already.

AND If Hillary doesn't win, who will protect us from the turrraist army of Iran? You just know they will invade America. History proves Iran is very aggressive nation and they are quite possibly behind 9/11.

:sarcasm:

[AZ Criminal JD]

19. The anti-Hillary crowd at DU is trying to re-write history

Hart and Dean never had the lead Clinton has had and they never had the lead for so long. Of course that crowd says polls are "made-up" and "paid for by corporate interests." Funny how when a poll shows Obama or Edwards doing well the poll is never suspect.

[emilyg]

20. And the polls don't show Edwards and Obama doing well.

That's what bothers them.

[Carrieyazel]

23. Yes, but do you really believe she's up by 33 points??? Not even close to that.

[Bullet1987]

26. It's highly unlikely she's up by a literal 33 points...

and the lead I'm sure she does have is like jello and can be easily melted.

[Carrieyazel]

22. Gary Hart doesn't fit this situation. He was never a frontrunner.

He was out of the 1988 race before it even began. (Back then, things didn't start until November/December, just before the first votes. And in 1984, he was the alternative candidate that nearly took the nomination away from Walter Mondale.