Flashback, Oct. 20, 2003- Iowa: Gephardt 27%, Dean 22%, Kerry 15%

[JCMach1]

http://qconline.com/archives/qco/display.php?id=171883

Polls mean very little at this point. If you are in double digits, you still have a chance in Iowa.


Were people freaking out then over the inevitable Gephardt?

The race is far from over.

The spread looks similar though. I suspect that Hillary is getting the same type of soft support that Gephardt did in the early polls. Obama may be this year's Dean in Iowa (peaked too early). Who then is the clean-up candidate Edwards? Richardson?

[silverojo]

1. And I'm hoping history repeats itself

I'd like to see this year's third-place candidate (Edwards) make it to the top. :patriot:

[durrrty libby]

8. His goose is nearly cooked.

[napi21]

2. I wish the media wouldn't have killed Dean! What a great Prez

he would have been!

[emilyg]

4. Agree.

[lojasmo]

11. Agree.

[XemaSab]

3. The simple lesson: the race is far from over!

K&R! :hi:

[Josh]

5. One key difference -

I want to preface this by saying I'm not American and I don't have a preferred candidate. :)

One difference I think that it is fair to note is that while Gephardt was leading in some Iowa polls, he had little strength anywhere else, save for his home state of Missouri. Hillary Clinton appears to be leading in pretty much every state *other* than Iowa (and Illinois). The differnece is important because if she loses in Iowa, she can still recover because of her support everywhere else. The same couldn't be said of Gephardt.

Cheers.

[Yukari Yakumo]

6. There are only two states where there is a clear leader and it is not HRC...

The first is Illinois, but that poll is ancient by political standards. The ARG poll in July placed HRC a mere four points behind Obama.

The second is New Mexico, Richardson's home state, but that poll is practically prehistoric. Richardson had a 10 point lead over HRC in April, but that lead could have easily evaporated by now.

[Bake]

16. The real race is just STARTING.

Not a single vote cast yet. This is just the pre-game warmup.

Bake

[MADem]

7. It is way too soon to tell. That's wy CIVILITY at this stage is appreciated.

I'd love to know why people like their candidates, rather than why they want to shit on other candidates. I'd love to see more "compare and contrast" exercises, where an issue is chosen, and the supporters of each candidate discuss, WITHOUT rancor, their candidate's stance on that particular matter.

I'm still no closer to making a decision. I do tend to feel sorry for candidates when people get unfairly shitty about them, but that's not a good way to make a decision--the "Underdog" effect...!

Be interesting to know how many candidates, over the years, who won Iowa actually went on to be Prez...

[JCMach1]

9. DU has never been exactly noted for PRIMARY civility...

it gets rough around here...

[MADem]

13. I know. I don't care for it.

I get scarce when it gets too annoying. It's just too childish for me.

[lojasmo]

10. Obama should get a shell organization to compare Clinton to Osama. EOM

[geek tragedy]

12. Edwards is a clear downhill trajectory.

He's been losing support since January.

Not gonna be him.

[LuvMyPorsche]

14. lol

How things change... and this cycle we've all started WAYYY to early.

[zulchzulu]

15. Gephardt has been a really great president

:sarcasm: