A wrinkle in Iowa
This race is now very much engaged in Iowa and if for all purpose a tie, however there is still a wrinkle in this tie, in the person of John Edwards. It should be very clear that at this point John Edwards is training in the neighborhood of 80% of his fire at Hillary and this may be a tip off to something that could change the race.
This is because those familiar with the Iowa Caucus rules know that a candidate needs 15% support in every caucus to get any votes in the caucus. This rule led in 2004 to the Kucinich and Edwards deal, which was a promise that wherever the other candidate was not viable their supporters would Caucus for the other. The margin if it stays in the same neighborhood as it is now could mean that whoever cuts the best "deal" would end up winning, an Edwards-Obama deal would at this point very likely beat Clinton and who ever their campaign struck a deal with. In short since Edwards is trending, however slightly down, this could mean an Obama victory in Iowa, which clearly sets up the rest of the scenario
Prediction, Obama 33% Clinton 30% Edwards 22% Richardson 7% Biden 4% Dodd 2% Kucinich 2%
On to New Hampshire
Assuming Obama is able to win in Iowa, New Hampshire becomes a very likely target for a next victory. It is here where history should be as great a cue as polling. The current polling is bad, but it is also does mirror the trends of nationally. When the race is not engaged on T.V. and when it is quiet. Senator Clinton does better, when the race is engaged, like Iowa, The Clinton Campaign does worse. All of the current polling in New Hampshire has been conducted, while Clinton was on T.V. and Obama was not on T.V. This important difference makes this Obama’s low point in the state of New Hampshire . Senator Clinton is at roughly 40 and Senator Obama is at roughly 20. However once the race is engaged, it is entirely likely the margin will shrink to ten with Obama gaining support to around 30, while Clinton will remain at roughly 40%. Assuming an Obama-Clinton-Edwards finish in Iowa, the odds are very good that, the rest of the field combined will be held to around 20% or less. History has shown that with the exception of Massachusetts’s candidates, New Hampshire Democrats are likely to give a boast to the Anti-Establishment candidate over the Establishment Candidate. For example Bill Bradley almost won the New Hampshire primary. This despite the fact hew was being far more badly beaten in National Polls and Establishment support than Clinton is beating Obama now. Look for the gap to narrow to around ten points by Iowa and be erased after an Obama victory in Iowa. Obama will win New Hampshire
Prediction
Obama 42% Clinton 38% Edwards 10% Richardson 5%, Dodd 2% Biden 2% Kucinich 1%
South Carolina and Nevada
At this point it is a two-person since those candidates remaining if any are not likely to reach the 15% of the vote necessary to qualify for delegates.
South Carolina is already showing the signs of being an engaged state over a non engaged state, while the most recent poll has a nine point Clinton lead this is much smaller than her leads nationally and is therefore is very hopeful sign. After two wins by Obama in New Hampshire and Iowa and based on this most recent polling, it is very likely that Senator Obama would be able to win South Carolina.
Prediction Obama 55% Clinton 45%
Nevada
This state is probably the hardest to get a read on because there is simply no history. On the hand Senator Clinton is completely and totally owning amongst electeds in the State, on the other hand it is a Caucus that in general will benefit Senator Obama. Senator Clinton’s poll leads are also sizable. I would give the edge to Senator Clinton but by a small margin
Clinton 53% Obama 47%
More at:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/10/7/143523/992
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