How Housing Turmoil Could Hurt Republicans in '08

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The Wall Street Journal

How Housing Turmoil Could Hurt Republicans in '08
High Foreclosure Rates In Some Swing States Likely to Play a Role
By CHRISTOPHER COOPER
October 15, 2007; Page A6

The housing crunch is most severe in some of the most hotly contested political battleground states, a trend that could spell trouble for Republicans next year. Six of the 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates in the country last month are considered by leaders of both parties to be swing states. They include the two biggest prizes of the past two presidential campaigns: Florida, which came in No. 2 on the list, with one foreclosure filing for every 248 households in September; and Ohio, No. 7, with one foreclosure for every 319 households, according to a survey by RealtyTrac Inc., a California property-research company.

Ohio's industrial neighbor Michigan ranked No. 4 in foreclosure rates. Three Western battleground states -- Nevada (No. 1), Arizona (No. 5) and Colorado (No. 8) -- also make the list. President Bush carried all but one of those states in 2000 and 2004. The exception: Michigan, where he lost both times, but campaigned intensively.

The rash of foreclosures in the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt is almost certain to gain velocity, housing experts said. If housing issues become prominent in those states in campaigning for next year's elections, it is likely to hurt Republicans, because they control the White House, and the party's presidential candidates have been more hesitant than Democrats to address the issue.

"For better or worse, as the incumbent party, Republicans own the economy," ISI Group Inc., a stock brokerage that specializes in policy research, said in a recent report. "Therefore, falling home prices, particularly if they lead to broader economic woes, will hurt Republican prospects for maintaining the White House and picking up seats in Congress."

In the Republican presidential candidates' first debate focused on economic issues last week, none raised housing concerns. One reason for Republican silence may be that, for all the headlines about a housing crunch, the issue doesn't rank high in national polls. In an early September Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, when people were asked to name two items that should be "the top priorities for President Bush to address," 7% cited "the home-mortgage and housing markets."

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URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119240803669258742.html (subscription)

[silverojo]

1. Here's why it'll hurt Republicans:

People want friggin' JOBS so they can pay their MORTGAGES! :mad: