How Hillary Could Tank by Salon's Walter Shapiro

[flpoljunkie]

How Hillary Could Tank

From hubby Bill's uncharted role to the Karl Rove factor to her scattered hawkish votes, the top 10 reasons why Clinton could take a fatal dive in the '08 race.

By Walter Shapiro

Oct. 16, 2007 | It is a paradox of the presidential primary season: Democratic voters -- and, yes, reporters -- claim to crave a wide-open, spirited fight for the nomination, yet simultaneously are eager to pronounce the race over before a single vote has been cast. From Ed Muskie in 1972 to Howard Dean four years ago, history should have taught handicappers that betting the mortgage money on the odds-on favorite is a mug's game.

Hillary Clinton is the latest beneficiary of this premature rush to certainty. Clinton's meet-her-again-for-the-first-time rollout has softened her image, repositioned her as the Democrats' most experienced candidate, airbrushed away her years of ambivalence on the Iraq war and turned her 1994 healthcare reform debacle into a scars-to-prove-it asset. At the same time, her campaign has shown uncharacteristic flashes of boldness from small matters (putting together a "Sopranos" parody video in a week, featuring Bill and Hillary) to large (matching John Edwards with a full-coverage-for-everyone healthcare plan).

All this has led to the latest episode of I-is-for-Inevitability. Despite the growing (and, in some cases, the grudging) sense that the former first lady's nomination is preordained and the primaries mere formalities, Clinton still must avoid a dirt-road-in-rainy-season ration of potholes on the way to the Denver Convention. Here are 10 factors that could permanently postpone the Hillary-for-president balloon drop:

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2007/10/16/hillary_10/print.html

<>Hillary Clinton is unquestionably the most likely person to be both the Democratic nominee and the next president. But there are hardly any guarantees, despite a media consensus prematurely handing her the nomination. She once boasted that she's "in it to win it." Now it is up to the New York senator to prove it.

[Demeter]

1. Most Telling Are the Negatives

The number of people with unfavorable attitudes towards her seeking this office. That's a mighty big hurdle to overcome, when it comes down to the general election, as well as in the primaries. And Hillary is doing absolutely nothing to reduce those negatives. One could say that her actions to date have been increasing them.

[SaveElmer]

2. 53-44

Is in a normal range for a general election candidate...I guarantee you whoever the Dem candidate is, their negatives will rise to that level as well...

In fact according to Rasmussen they already have

[msongs]

7. "...doing absolutely nothing.."? my you are the all knowing nt

[FormerDittoHead]

3. Walter Shapiro = Republican hack.

:sarcasm:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/shapiro/bio.htm

Shapiro served in the Carter administration as a presidential speechwriter (1979) and as press secretary (1977-78) to Secretary of Labor Ray Marshall. In 1972

[flpoljunkie]

4. Also the man who said the candidate he'd most like to have a beer with in '04 was John Kerry

In a Washington Journal interview, Shapiro said how much he enjoyed speaking with John Kerry on the campaign trail in the summer of 2003. Shapiro wrote of this summer in his book, "One Car Caravan."

[karynnj]

17. He also spoke of how

Kerry was far better when the microphones and video cameras were turned off and he was simply talking late into the night answering all questions asked. He said that most other politicians were the opposite - with bright smiles and friendly on camera, less so off camera.

[Tellurian]

6. Shapiro helps Democrats lose elections..

If he supported Hillary, I'd be worried.

"Shapiro has regularly performed stand-up comedy at clubs in New York City and Washington. The New York Observer in a review of one of his early performances declared that "he holds the microphone like a dead fish."

[karynnj]

16. Hed actually wrote one of the better books

on the 2004 race. From things I read this year - other than one piece of mild snark at Kerry's expense in an otherwise good article, he has been a pretty level headed commentator. He is clearly not Republican. I find nothing here that either HRC or other candidates should have a major problem with. The entire thing essentially says, she is a big favorite and has avoided mistakes, but it isn't over till it's over. What in that is not true?

I hadn't known he was a Carter speechwriter.

[FormerDittoHead]

18. Please read my messages before you reply to them.

>He is clearly not Republican.

1) I used the universal :sarcasm: emoticon...

2) the content of my message, IMO clearly outlines his Democratic / liberal CV, but I was, again, using :sarcasm:

We're on the same page, but I'm SOOOooo TIRED of people here not getting my :sarcasm:

[Evergreen Emerald]

5. The press is pushing inevitable--not Clinton. And just like Dean

the press giveth--the press can taketh away.

There is nothing inevitable about Clinton's bid. And that is not, and should not, be the issue. The press is creating their own story: The fall of Clinton.

Watch.

[PatSeg]

8. Experience shows the media "builds ya up to tear your down"

It gives them more news coverage and higher ratings, plus I think they enjoy it.

[Demeter]

9. Sick, Isn't It? That's Not Reporting, Either, But Manipulation

Just like Bush and Cheney and thier so-called secret intelligence.

[PatSeg]

12. Yep, manipulation is the word

And I'm sure it feels very powerful to affect the outcome of a presidential election. They should just stick to Brittney and OJ.

[applegrove]

10. What else is he gonna say. All she can do is go down in the polls. Pretty

hard to get any higher. And he makes it like because Hillary has half the democratic voters behind her..it could go down. The fact that she is almost at half is a testiment to how well she is doing.

[rinsd]

11. The press is bored. They want a closer race.

[Perry Logan]

13. For some reason, Democrats love to predict their own defeat--no matter how well things are going.

I think most liberals are afraid of being overconfident. If things are looking good, we will bloody well go out and MAKE UP STUFF to worry about. This wastes mental energy and is bad for morale--but whattaya gonna do?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Blah Blah Blah

Can she lose? Sure...

But right now if this was the NFL Hillary would be the Colts, Pats, or Cowboys, and her opponents would be the Dolphins, Jets or Rams...

If this was the NBA Hillary would be the Mavericks, Spurs, or Suns and her opponents would be the Hawks, Knicks, or Seventy Sixers...

That's how I handicap this race...

[cuke]

15. If that's all HRC has to worry about, then she has little to worry about

At best, you're hoping for lightning to strike. You even nearly repeat yourself (ie "bad things happen" vs "suprising things happen" (which are, unsurprisingly, BAD)). Others ("Some other candidate gets his act together") only reveal just how dismal a view you have for the other candidates chances.

I've gotten the distinct impression that you did not offer this OP as encouragement to us Hillary supporters, yet I find this thread (and your despair) one of the most encouraging things I've read on DU.

[Rhythm and Blue]

19. She seems to be doing a great job of holding aggro. n/t