Why it makes sense for Howard Dean to endorse John Edwards

[ShaneGR]

There are two things we must first consider. First, Dean has made it clear that he's not going to be going anywhere and he intends to keep fighting within the Democratic Party to change it. Second, under a Kerry administration he would have about ZERO chance of doing that. McAuliffe stays, and while things will be MUCH better under Kerry than Bush, the current upper-leadership will invariably stay on for years to come.

So Dean stands nothing to gain from endorsing Kerry. And if he sits on the sidelines and watches Kerry wrap up the nomination, he'll be severely weakened over the next four years. So he stands to gain nothing if doesn't endorse anyone.

In steps John Edwards. The Golden Boy of the Dem Party. Mr. 5 yr. Senator who managed to get into 2nd in the race for the Democratic Party's Nomination for President of the United States. Meteoric rise. Pure ambition. As Howard Fineman said recently when speaking about Edwards, "If meteors were cars, his was a Maserati."

Polling indicates that Edwards is anywhere from 5 to 20 (Sometimes higher) points behind Kerry in most of the Super Tuesday. This is mainly owing to Kerry's relentless media attention, and a "Win" attitude. The vast majority of voters on Super Tuesday know very little about either candidate at this point. They know there are two main candidates left and Kerry has been winning. As Wisconsin showed, if Edwards gets exposure and buys advertising, he does well. But there's a money problem. And it needs fixed quick, or else.

With a Dean endorsement Edwards gains two very powerful things. First, and foremost, voters. Keep in mind that if Dean hadn't been in Wisconsin, it's unlikely that Kerry would have gotten a very good percentage of that vote. Second, and also important, is the money factor. While it's unlikely that a large percentage of Dean's list would donate to Edwards upon receiving an email from the Dean HQ, it is likely that somewhere around 10%-20% will. This would flood Edwards with somewhere between 2-5 million, depending on the size of the contributions and how often they asked.

Combine those two benefits for Edwards, and he would have a VERY good chance of staying in contention AFTER Super Tuesday and overtaking Kerry the following week when the states are mostly southern.

With Edwards in the White House, and on the campaign trail, Dean would have demonstrated his "pull" within the party, demonstrating that his supporters are not to be screwed with for fear of getting knocked off by a chosen candidate.

RealPolitik.

[BurtWorm]

1. If that really is Howard Dean's plan, he can count me out.

Edwards is my ultimate, ultimate last bottom of the barrel choice. He's an eyelash "better" than Bush in my estimation.

I'm voting for Dean in NY on 3/2. I could actively work, however, to make sure Edwards is not the nominee.

[dsc]

2. one big problem

Dean has gotten devoted support from two groups, gays and anti war voters. Neither group is thrilled with Edwards nor should they be. Edwards has a pretty bad record on gays prior to the 2001 Congress. He didn't even cosponsor ENDA or hate crimes. He also is more strong for the war than Kerry. I am not really in favor of either candidate at this point. I think Kerry's record on gays is better but most everything else about Edwards is. Not sure what a Dean endorsement would do about that.

[not systems]

3. Edwards kind of makes me ill.

His vote on the war and unrepentant justifications.

He is not much of a cultural liberal that I can see.

I don't think much of his looks.

He has almost nothing that I was attracted to Dean for.

I am going to support Kerry who has the possibility of remembering
what it meant to be the last man to die for a mistake.

Go Kerry!

[ochazuke]

4. Yeesh! Replies are harsh!

I wonder how well most DUers really know our candidtates, their history, their M.O., etc. Who would have predicted in 1992 that Clinton wouldn't learn to keep it in his pants, that he would 'hit the ground stumbling' until he gave us a Republican congress, and then only regained his popularity by being against that congress during the gov't shutdown and silly impeachment process. It could have been predicted, but you don't get the needed clues from the media unless you really look for it.

Anyway, Dean endorsing Edwards would be BIG. It's still a long-shot for Edwards, so if he gets the nomination, it'll only be because of such a groundswell of support that you know he'll crush bush in November.