EDM/DR: Is Edwards More Electable Than Kerry?

[ModerateMiddle]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000394.shtml

Very interesting analysis of "electability" in 2004 by Ruy Teixeira of Emerging Democratic Majority:

snippets:

But, in the aftermath of the Wisconsin primary, the Kerry-doubters have shifted their line of attack to something with a bit more bite: hard evidence (in their view) that Kerry is less electable than the other viable Democratic candidate, John Edwards.

snip

1. Edwards may have beaten Kerry among independents in Wisconsin, as well as South Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee. But Kerry beat Edwards among independents in Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona, Delaware, Missouri and Virginia.

snip

4. General election independent voters, unlike independents in the Wisconsin primary, are likely to be quite sensitive to the national security issue and the credentials of the Democratic candidate to be commander-in-chief. Kerry has a huge advantage here over Edwards and it baffles DR that some observers are glossing this over. The ability of Kerry to highlight real combat experience and campaign with war veterans adds a great deal to the Democrats' ability to appear tough enough to defend the nation's security. Not to mention the implicit comparison with Bush's cushy, politically-connected, non-combat gig in the National Guard, a comparison which is unflattering for Bush, no mater what happens with the AWOL story. Independents who don't like Bush, particularly working class independents, are going to be looking for a way to feel safe about voting Democratic in this election. Kerry has a leg up over Edwards in his ability to provide the assurance.

5. Edwards may have done well among independents in Wisconsin, but, judging from the publicly-released exit poll data, it appears to have been mostly among upscale independents. The Democrat in the general election will have to do well among working class independents as well (not to mention keeping working class Democrats in the fold). Kerry actually has a good track record of support from working class, especially traditional blue collar, voters in Massachusetts. As Michael Crowley points out in an excellent article in the new issue of The New Republic, Kerry has repeatedly shown he can connect with those kinds of voters, where his military and combat experience and friendships with veterans loom large, even when other politicians and elites typecast him as aloof and out-of-touch.

6. In the latest CBS News poll, Kerry wins among all voters by 5 points, but among independent voters by 10 points. But isn't it true that voters don't like Kerry and don't cotton to him personally?

In the latest Time/CNN poll, by 68 percent to 28 percent, the public says that "likeable" applies to Bush, which is good....but not quite as good as the 69 percent to 18 percent by which public says that Kerry is likeable.

more at link

Thoughts?

[ModerateMiddle]

1. kick

:kick:

[Skwmom]

2. This alone will sink Edwards

She speaks to you through me," the lawyer went on in his closing argument. "And I have to tell you right now -- I didn't plan to talk about this -- right now I feel her. I feel her presence. She's inside me, and she's talking to you."

http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2004/01/john_edwards_is.html

[SangamonTaylor]

7. that's a rovian attack

Unless you know what you are describing, and how heart wrenching that case actually was, please refrain from using that quote.

Please, show some class. Read up on what actually happened in that case and don't just use a quote out of context. I recommend reading the book Four Trials. After reading the story of Ms. Campbell, you will feel bad for using that quote to try and smear a great Democratic candidate.

[edzontar]

3. I like Tweedle-Dee much better than Tweedle-Dum!!!!

He is way sexier!!!!

He's the one on the left, right?

[corporatewhore]

6. Tweedledee is the most liberal electable candidate

[bigtree]

4. Experience counts - One term Senator. Trial laywer. Son of a mill worker.

We can differ with votes that Sen. Kerry has cast, but I would reckon that if we threw out the ones we disagreed with him on, the one's left would blow John Edward's accomplishments out of the arena.

I won't pretend to represent Sen. Edward's record. But as for John Kerry:

-Swift Boat officer, serving on a gunboat in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam. He received a Silver Star, Bronze Star with Combat V, and three awards of the Purple Heart for his service in combat.

-spokesperson for the Vietnam Veterans Against the War; testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he asked the question of his fellow citizens, "How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?"

-As a top prosecutor in Middlesex County, Kerry took on organized crime and put the Number Two mob boss in New England behind bars. He modernized the District Attorney's office, creating an innovative rape crisis crime unit.

-In 1984, after winning election as Lieutenant Governor in 1982, Kerry ran and was elected to serve in the United States Senate. Now serving his fourth term.

Legislative Accomplishments of John Kerry:

-Cosponsored Gramm-Rudman-Hollings bipartisan deficit reduction Act. Kerry was one of the earliest Democrats to sign on to the effort to address the growing budget deficit.

-Secured assistance for families of Agent Orange victims: Kerry cosponsored and worked to pass the Agent Orange Benefits Act to extend health care benefits to children of Vietnam Veterans who suffer from spina bifida. <1995 VA-HUD Approp>

-Passed international anti-money laundering law: John Kerry proposed and passed anti-money laundering amendment that forced negotiations with foreign banks to keep records of US currency transactions of $10,000 & up and established penalties for countries engaged in money laundering. <1988: S Amdt 3697, HR 5210, #374, passed 85-3>

-Introduced bill to significantly increase commitment to fighting HIV/AIDS: Kerry introduced, along with Senator Bill Frist (R-TN), the U.S. Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, TB, and Malaria Act. The bill would increase the U.S. governments funding of international HIV/AIDS efforts from approximately $1.7 billion in 2003 to $1.9 billion in 2004. This effort led to the unanimous passage in May 2003 the United States Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, TB, and Malaria Act of 2003. AIDS activists characterized Kerry as one of Congress top leaders on HIV/AIDS policy.

-Passed law addressing nurse shortage: Kerry introduced and passed the Nurse Reinvestment Act, to address the current shortage of Nurses in the medical profession.

-Expanded early childhood development efforts: Kerry introduced legislation to expand state and local early childhood development efforts, including education, child care and health care for children between birth and six years old. At the end of 2000, a version of this bipartisan legislation was signed into law. .

-Strengthened protection of seals, dolphin, whales and other marine mammals: Kerry sponsored legislation that extended and strengthened laws protecting Marine Mammals from commercial fishing.

-Introduced plan that expanded childrens health insurance coverage: Kerry and Kennedy drafted an innovative plan to help states expand health care coverage for children in the 104th Congress. Their plan served as the framework for the Childrens Health Insurance Program in 1997

[PurityOfEssence]

5. I dispute point four in a big way

For conservatives looking for an alternative, it will be easier to vote for Edwards than Kerry. Regardless of the war record, Kerry is a Massachusetts Liberal and part of the New England stuffy elite, so he will be harder for many to accept. This is a big issue, and it needs to be thought through; the demonizing of intellectuals and Northeast lefties has resilient influence in much of the rest of the country, and that's the battleground for this election.

I'll say it again: Edwards can get all the votes Kerry can and many more. Although some crossover veterans may not join Edwards when they would Kerry, all other demographics I can think of are more friendly for Edwards: Southerners, rural voters, and traditional non-voters. Lest we forget, Edwards is a Methodist, just like Junior, and he's had a long, happy marriage with a charming family story, replete with heart-rending tragedy.

Just as Junior is the patron saint of the circuitry challenged, John Edwards is the beaming hope of the downtrodden. Although he didn't quite come from a ditch, and he did have a strong family behind him, he came from the uneducated working class, and that's very important.

It's hard to factor in things like the Missouri vote; that was right after New Hampshire, and Edwards was locked in a complex fight for survival with Clark that had been staked out elsewhere. With that in mind, his showing in Missouri was rather impressive.

Let's not forget that Kerry was the presumptive front-runner before the Dean phenomenon, so in absence of much publicity, Kerry had the edge.