http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000394.shtmlVery interesting analysis of "electability" in 2004 by Ruy Teixeira of Emerging Democratic Majority:
snippets:
But, in the aftermath of the Wisconsin primary, the Kerry-doubters have shifted their line of attack to something with a bit more bite: hard evidence (in their view) that Kerry is less electable than the other viable Democratic candidate, John Edwards.
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1. Edwards may have beaten Kerry among independents in Wisconsin, as well as South Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee. But Kerry beat Edwards among independents in Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona, Delaware, Missouri and Virginia.
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4. General election independent voters, unlike independents in the Wisconsin primary, are likely to be quite sensitive to the national security issue and the credentials of the Democratic candidate to be commander-in-chief. Kerry has a huge advantage here over Edwards and it baffles DR that some observers are glossing this over. The ability of Kerry to highlight real combat experience and campaign with war veterans adds a great deal to the Democrats' ability to appear tough enough to defend the nation's security. Not to mention the implicit comparison with Bush's cushy, politically-connected, non-combat gig in the National Guard, a comparison which is unflattering for Bush, no mater what happens with the AWOL story. Independents who don't like Bush, particularly working class independents, are going to be looking for a way to feel safe about voting Democratic in this election. Kerry has a leg up over Edwards in his ability to provide the assurance.
5. Edwards may have done well among independents in Wisconsin, but, judging from the publicly-released exit poll data, it appears to have been mostly among upscale independents. The Democrat in the general election will have to do well among working class independents as well (not to mention keeping working class Democrats in the fold). Kerry actually has a good track record of support from working class, especially traditional blue collar, voters in Massachusetts. As Michael Crowley points out in an excellent article in the new issue of The New Republic, Kerry has repeatedly shown he can connect with those kinds of voters, where his military and combat experience and friendships with veterans loom large, even when other politicians and elites typecast him as aloof and out-of-touch.
6. In the latest CBS News poll, Kerry wins among all voters by 5 points, but among independent voters by 10 points. But isn't it true that voters don't like Kerry and don't cotton to him personally?
In the latest Time/CNN poll, by 68 percent to 28 percent, the public says that "likeable" applies to Bush, which is good....but not quite as good as the 69 percent to 18 percent by which public says that Kerry is likeable.
more at link
Thoughts?