Illinois Voters Favor Kerry Over Bush, Says Chicago Tribune Poll

[Feanorcurufinwe]

The momentum propelling John Kerry in his race for the Democratic presidential nomination has reached Illinois, where the latest Chicago Tribune poll shows the senator would handily defeat President Bush if the general election were held today.

While voters were polarized heavily along party lines, 52 percent of poll respondents favored Kerry versus 39 percent for Bush. But the poll also indicated signs of a gender gap for Bush, with women voters favoring Kerry by a 24-percentage point advantage.

<snip>

The poll is based on 600 telephone interviews conducted February 11-14 with registered Illinois voters likely to take part in the general election; the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Democratic primary looms: In a companion poll of Illinois Democrats, Kerry is the overwhelming favorite among 62 percent of voters, with Sen. John Edwards receiving the backing of 11 percent, and Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich trailing with the support of 6 percent and 1 percent of voters, respectively. As Kerry's status as a frontrunner has come into focus, Illinois Democrats are increasingly positive about their chances in November. Now, 68 percent of Democratic primary voters say they believe their field is "very strong," compared to only 39 percent a month ago. This Chicago Tribune poll is based on 609 telephone interviews conducted February 11-17 with voters likely to take part in the Illinois Democratic primary on March 17; the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040220/cgf043_1.html

[spooky3]

1. wonder how Wisconsin results would change this?

Don't know how much time Edwards has spent in IL recently, but I'll bet it's not much. His support depends on his ability to meet and greet personally.

[Nicholas_J]

61. True

And Edwards is completely skipping a fair number of states. Kerry has campaign presence in Utah, Idaho, and Hawaii, which are coming up this Tuesday, and which Edwards has ignored. He is again, focusing his attention on Upstate New York which are Kerry's strongest areas in polls taken two days after Wisconsin. Kerry polling 68 percent in upstate New York and the New York City Suburban area.Kerry recieved an extrememly large bounce in New York After Wisconsin Then he is focusing on Georgia, where the AFL-CIO is mobilizing 200.000 members to campaign for Kerry, and finally Ohio. Where Kucinich may not be a spoiler, but certainly will draw a lot more votes than he has elsewhere. Edwards is relying on the same cherry picking techniques for the super tuesday states, and this strategy will allow him to pick up enough delegates to pass Dean's second place delegate holdings, but without getting wins or extremly close seconds on March 2nd, the strategy of not campaigning in 7 out of 10 states will pretty much end the nomination process on March 2nd.

[mac2]

2. Chicago Tribune is a fascist paper....

The polls have all been wrong.

[David Dunham]

3. This poll is correct. I was just in IL and Dems there like Kerry a lot.

[greatauntoftriplets]

6. I live in Illinois and don't know anyone who likes Kerry.

On what do you base your opinion?

[David Dunham]

7. On speaking with Dems in Chicago, including Dailey people

[greatauntoftriplets]

8. Daley is a DINO.

I speak with dozens of people every day. None like Kerry.

[Frances]

10. Well, who do they like?

Nader? Bush?

[greatauntoftriplets]

13. Dean and Kucinich.

Jeez.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. When will you be publishing your poll results and what is the MOE?

[greatauntoftriplets]

15. You believe the fascist Tribune????

That reich-wing rag? I talk with real people here. Do YOU????

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. I missed the part of your answer where you explain your methodology

and MOE.

[greatauntoftriplets]

18. I talk to people in this state.

They tell me what they believe and who they are for.

What is your methodology and margin of error? Please elucidate. You ask me, but do not offer your own reasons, other than a link to the Chicago Tribune, a right-wing publication from WAAAYYY back. I know. I used to work there!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

19. So that makes the MOE what?

As far at the poll that is the subject of the thread:

The poll is based on 600 telephone interviews conducted February 11-14 with registered Illinois voters likely to take part in the general election; the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040220/cgf043_1.html

[greatauntoftriplets]

20. Where were the phone calls made? Downstate Illinois is quite conservative

Why do you believe the right-wing Tribune?

On edit: I am talking with real people who I know. I lie to pollsters who call me all the time. Why do you trust polls published in right-wing newspapers?

How many people in Illinois have you personally talked to?

And why do you feel the compulsion to attack anyone who disagrees with you?

And the Tribune always endorses the Republican for president. They WANT the Democrat to lose.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

23. I guess you'll have to buy the Sunday Trib for the rest of the details.

That is where the complete results will appear.

I'm sorry that my posting this poll has gotten you so upset.


Well, actually, I guess it would be more accurate to say that I find it amusing.

:hi:

[greatauntoftriplets]

25. I subscribe to the Tribune. Have done so for many years.

It is good for laughs. And sobs.

Did you know that the Tribune's weatherman is Tom Skilling? Brother to Jefrey Skilling of Enron?

BTW, what state do you live in? You are mysterious about it.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

30. Cool, you can report back to us on Sunday with the details.

[Spider Jerusalem]

31. A sure sign of a sinister right-wing conspiracy, that is.

I mean, the weatherman...hey, he was probably telling Chicagoans to expect more extreme weather than would actually occur just so they'd use more energy and jack up Enron's profits... </sarcasm>

[aldian159]

37. Not to mention Skilling

is one of the most respect weathermen in the nation. He must have surly helped out Jeff all those years.

You know how damn hard it is to be the weatherman here? Impossible.

[AngryAmish]

54. Skilling is not just a weatherman

He controls the weather. I am convinced of it. Prove me wrong.

[Cuban_Liberal]

56. The Chicago BOT certainly thinks he does.

I've seen prices on soybeans, corn and wheat drop and rise dramatically, as soon as he finishes his noon forecast. Scary, isn't it? :scared:

[AngryAmish]

59. Really?

I did not know that. Now I have been told that many of the larger trading outfits have private weather forecasting services. But for the smaller trader, or someone trying to time market psychology...

I guess you learn something everyday.

[Cuban_Liberal]

63. WGN TV.

Usually around 12:20 p.m., CST. :)

[LouisFC]

40. Downstate Illinois Checking In

I did a lot of canvassing for Clark in downstate Illinois and while this is a very conservative area, there was a strong ABB feeling.

I like Kerry best of who is left, but will be voting for Clark if the spread remains this large and Kerry doesn't need my vote.

[Cuban_Liberal]

42. Downstate here, too.

:hi:

[LouisFC]

43. Back at ya!

:hi:

I'm in Madison County and I think Edwards is going to have a rough slog here because of the Tort Reform issue. It was the number one question people had when I was canvassing for Clark. What is your feeling?

[Cuban_Liberal]

44. Edwards will do well mid-state, where I am.

People are generally conservative here, and most Democrats here seem very 'torn': on the one hand, they see Kerry's 'electability', but don't much LIKE him, while they like Edwards much more, but worry about whether he's 'electable.

I think the IL race will tighten up a lot between now and the 16th.:)

[LouisFC]

45. Agreed.

I also think the race will tighten. Though I am hoping not too much as I really do want my chance to vote for Clark.

[Cuban_Liberal]

46. Since our primary is open, ...

...I expect Edwards to benefit from cross-over voting here, just as he did in WI, especially since Dr. Dean will not be actively campaigning here. Our area's campaign has been pleasantly surprised by a surprising influx of former Dean supporters.

[LouisFC]

47. open primary

I thought about this as well. We did have a pretty significant amount of moderate Republican support for Clark. Not sure what will happen to their votes now (am hoping they don't go back to Bush, but I fear they might)...

[Doomsayer13]

24. Ummmm

If it were a "reich-wing rag" wouldn't it show Bush beating all candidates in the feild?

[greatauntoftriplets]

27. Have you ever read the Tribune?

I used to work there, I know.

[Doomsayer13]

29. Yes I have read the trib

I lived in Chicago for most of my life. The Trib is conservative, I know that. But if they were going to skew a poll, I don't get the logic behind releasing a poll that shows John Kerry ahead of Bush instead of one with Bush ahead of the feild. It doesn't make any sense logically.

[aldian159]

36. how is Daley a DINO?

please, enlighten me.

[tritsofme]

14. *raises hand*

I like Kerry better than anybody whose left, and I too live in Illinois.

[mac2]

28. Illinois ...I like Kucinich

Our state elected a Progressive Democratic Governor. Why not Dennis?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

32. Why not?

[tritsofme]

33. Blago is beholden to Daley,

The reason we are winning big in IL and will continue to win big is because the IL GOP has imploded because its corruption has been brought up for everyone to see.

Maybe I'm just overly pessimistic, but I really don't think there has been a huge shift to the left in IL, I just think people are sick and tired of the GOP. I think IL voters are visciously independant, and if the pubs put out a real moderate that was a good person he would do good in our state.

As long as downstate and Dupage produce politicians that are better suited for Alabama, we will win. But I don't think someone like Kucinich could even win here.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

34. If people are sick of the GOP, that's good enough.

That's the GOOD thing about the two-party system that people forget sometimes.

[aldian159]

38. The GOP will be dead till at least 2008 here.

and probably later.

Blago will get re-elected in 2006 simply because he's not George Ryan and a GOP. Durbin will rout the GOP in 2008. The state GOP leader is Topinka, the damn treasurer. They're gone for the rest of the decade. And it's their own damn fault.

At no time in IL history has the state politically been so dominated by Chicago. Blago is Chicago, Durbin is Chicago, and the two chief Dems running for the Senate (Hull and O'Bama) are Chicago.

Tis a beautiful thing.

[davsand]

48. Durbin is NOT Chicago.

Durbin is from Belleville/East St. Louis area (St. Clair County) and has never been a "Chicago" guy. Durbin did later move to Springfield area--and represented them in the House for several terms. I'm sure he gets along fine with our neighbors up north--but he's a downstater all the way.

Laura

[Cuban_Liberal]

52. Correct.

Dick Durbin is Illinois' 'white knight in shining armor'. :)

[aldian159]

62. Really?

Then I apologize.

Thanks for the correction.

[Cuban_Liberal]

41. It's not a 'fascist paper'

It's moderately conservative, and is excellent, from a journaqlistic perspective. :eyes:

[otohara]

4. Yeah Women of Illinois

But the poll also indicated signs of a gender gap for Bush, with women voters favoring Kerry by a 24-percentage point advantage.

hope this good news regarding women holds in other states - Bush scares women, and rightly so.

[DaisyUCSB]

5. It's so annoying that they only poll Kerry v Bush, and not Edwards

Edwards should also be compared, shame on whoever published this

[tritsofme]

9. Illinois voter says "Duh"

nt

[lovedems]

11. Of course we do! It doesn't take us long to realize when we are getting

screwed by republicans! We have had years of experience!

We are a smart group in Illinois, I am proud of my state!

Edit: There isn't much talk of Kerry in my town per se, it is more of an ABB atmoshpere. They hate bu$h and are willing to vote for whoever is the dem candidate. Most of the people I talk to say things like "this is the first primary that I honestly don't care who wins the nomination, my vote this year is a vote against a bu$h" People here hate the chimp with a passion and that is what is driving them.

We also haven't been in a position to actually choose a candidate because we don't vote in our primary until March 16. I am sure the focus of discussing the dem candidates is just around the corner in my little part of the world.

[grytpype]

17. Dems gaining confidence? Repugs losing confidence?

The tide is turning in our direction at last.

And think of the hits that are going to land on Bush between now and November:

In the sad-but-true category: (1) No job creation, and (2) Iraq gets worse. And no, this is not me being trimphal about that. Bush has sown the wind. He has caused these problems, and it's not triumphalism or "gutter politics," or even "negative politics," to demand that he be held accountable.

In the justice-at-last category: (3) The WMD lies get more publicity. A majority of Americans think Bush either intentionally exaggerated the WMD or lied outright. (4) Indictments in the Plame Affair. Scooter Libby is going to be lead out of the White House in handcuffs. MAYBE EVEN CHENEY! People who never even heard of Plame are going to hear about it now. And there will be nowhere to hide.

Where is the good news for Bush? Only the eventual finding (or production of) Bin Laden, and the turnover of soverignty in Iraq. But will it be enough?

[hedda_foil]

21. It's the ham sandwich vote

[greatauntoftriplets]

22. Thanks hedda!

:hi:

[Doomsayer13]

26. Nice to see my home state on board

Now time to get working on California

[aldian159]

35. Good

However, this is IL. We define the old-style Democratic Party. Bush would lose if Jesus endorsed him: Daley would just endorse the Democrat, and that would be that.

[NNN0LHI]

39. No surprises here. Bush lost Illinois by a landslide in Illinois in 2000

I fully expect the same outcome in November.

Don

[davsand]

49. Bush wrote off Illinois in 2000.

From what I understand it is viewed as a "safe" Dem state by both the GOP and the DNC this time too.

I think that given the voting history of the state I understand why they view it this way, but I have to tell you all, I think Illinois could swing for ANY given candidate no matter the party--as long as the candidate strikes a chord.

Illinois GOP has been in a serious meltdown in the last couple elections, and the civil war rages on. The Moderates and the Conservatives in the Illinois GOP are fighting it out and just killing each other in the process.

IF that GOP cannibalism holds, Illinois will be great Dem turf (it's about damn time too--we've been under GOP domination for HOW long?) for a couple more elections.

Laura

[NNN0LHI]

50. Republicons may get strong again in IL after they all get out of jail? n/t

[Nicholas_J]

51. Polls taken since Wissonsin have shown a small bounce

For Edwards, but in the same states, Kerry has had almost twice the percentage points of bounce since he won Wisconsin. Several polls taken 48 hours after Wisconsin showed Edwards picking up around 4 points, but Kerry picking up anywhere from 8 to 18 depending on the state and the area within those state. Wisconsin is being given far more attention than it is due. When you look at the state Edwards won by so much, South Carolina, the large win was due in part to it being his own state, but in part to South Carolina getting rid of the loyalty oath to the Democrats during the primary, bringing out a lot of republicans and indepenents. Wisconsin always had an open primary. But Edwards simply hasnt done anything near as well among registered Democrats, and this is being reflected in polls in states where only registered Democrats are going to be allowed to vote in the primaries. The polls in Wisconsin only polled registered Democrats, and if you look at Edwards actual percentages of regstered Democrats in WIsconsin, those polls were not off, and Kerry's lead over Edwards in Wisconsin among Democrats was as large as all of the polls indicated. Wisconsin will give Edwards a bounce. But it also has given Kerry a bounce. Polls are no longer showing Kerry at 47, or 49 , or 53 percent. They are showing him at 60, 66, 67, 68, 70 percent in the upcoming states in polls taken between the 17th and the 19th.

In order for Edwards to pass Kerry in delegates on Super Tuesday, he will need to win every Super Tuesday State with 60 percent of the vote, because with 40 percent, Kerry will still be able to stay ahead of Edwards with a comforrtable lead. that is leaving out other candidates who are still on the ballot, like Dean, Kucinich, Sharpton. And if you look at the results of several states like Tennessee, Even though they dropped out people like Lieberman still received a few percent of the vote. ANd people like Lieberman and Dean still will, particularly in the Northeast and California, so Kerry will still maintain a lead over Edwards and since the party is basically backing Kerry and not Edwards, the majority of superdelegates will align with the party's decision along with supporting the frontrunner which is how the superdelegate thing has always worked. At the convention, or in the weeks before it, the superdelegates meet with the leadership of the party, and basically they party looks to see who is the frontrunner, and then basically tells the super-delegates to support the frontrunner. Remember all of the recent talk about those super-delegates who threw their support to Dean being people who will be facing political difficulties in the future, Well its true. The party runs based on loyalty to the party's decisions. Which is pretty much why no convention ever ended with a majority of superdelegates turning against the frontrunner and changing the ourcome of the nominations process. In the end, the superdelegates are expected to go along with the majority of the non-transferable delegates. One of the reasons for Dean scaling down his campaign was the desire of the 3 dozen or so congressional delegates that he picked up to switch their allegence without appearing to show traits of disloyalty. With Dean out, they can swithc to a candidate who is more likely to win, and do so a bit more graciously by stating, "though I supported Dean, you were always my second choice , John"(Whichever John that happens to be). I fully expected Edwards to rn for the presidency as early as November or 2000, when I saw him on C-SPAN for the first time) Kerry's momentum all around the country is just too strong, Edwards has had to basically carefully pick one or two states to try to do well in, but the way the primaries are running, he will have to choose to give up a strong focus on one of the two states in which a very large amount of delegates are to be won. He will either have to focus on New York or California in order to get something similar to Wisconsin. Edwards hhas only done well in places in which he has had a continual presence, and he will not be able to do that over the next ten days in the supertuesdfay states. Once Super Tuesday is finished, 60 percent of the states are finished and I think more than than in delegates. Edwards win in Wisconsin was a strategic effort to halt Kerry's momoentum, but he needed a win in Wisconsin to do that, not a strong second, not even a second in which he came as close as he did. Edwards has a small chance to bea Kerry, but everyone admits, it is very small.

[oasis]

53. If Edwards needs 60% of the votes on Super Tuesday, I don't expect

him to get any rest in the meantime.

[poskonig]

55. Illinois voter for Kerry here.

My mother also prefers Kerry over Edwards. Edwards seems kinda traditional with regard to values, she thinks, while Kerry would be more supportive of women's rights. I suspect other voters probably get the same impression from these candidates, which accounts for the respective gender gaps.

[AngryAmish]

57. Dem nominee is a lock in Illinois

The Illinois republican party is in total disarray, seeing how so many of their leaders are under indictment or in jail.

Also, Daley needs to get Fitgerald out of the US Attys Office, and the easiest way to do that is to get a new administration in Washington. The recent insurance and trucking scandals are getting way too close to home for Daley. There will be a HUGE Dem turnout in Chicago and Cook County, and with Repubs in disarray, IL is a democratic state.

[Cuban_Liberal]

58. Yes.

IL is rock-solid 'D', come fall.

[Nicholas_J]

60. A poll taken on the 19th shows Kerry

For the first time being the only democratic candidate who is now ale to beat Bush in Pennsylvania as well. This one is supposedly a reall shocker as no on thought anyone was going to be able to beat Bush in Pennsylvania.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10183.xml

The Hoover Knowledge Network Poll has Kerry now beating Bush in California with Kerry getting 52 percent and Bush getting 48. When Edwards is placed against Bush, Bush gets 52 percent, Edwards 48 percent, the exact reverse.

The latest Public Policy Institute Polls has even grimmer figures for Bush with Bush taking 37 percent and a Democratic Nominees taking 54 percent.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

In national polls:

Though Fox polls are suspect in my mind, for the first time they have

Kerry and Bush both at 45 percent, 9 percent not sure, 1 percent wouldnt vote,

Bush at 46 percent, Edwards at 41 Percent 11 percent not sure 2 percent wouldnt vote

Polls MoE is 3 percent


This polls was taken Feb 18-19, after Wisconsin.

This is the first time that Fox has even admitted in any poll that Bush was not in the lead against a Dem.


Tha latest Gallop Polls Taken Just before Wisconsin have Kerry now slaughtering Bush With Bush getting 43 percent, Kerry getting 55 percent, Neither 12 Percent, No opinion 1 percent


Edwards also is seen doing Bush in in this polls as well though with Edwards getting 54 percent. Bush 44. and the same figures for other and no opinion.

www.pollingreport.com



The latest
American Research Poll has Kerry beating Bush Kerry 48 percent Bush 46 percent

Bush against Edwards, Bush 48 percent, Edwards 45 percent

This poll was taken on February 17th -19th, after Wisconsin.

In this poll Kerry does better with Republicans, Democrats and Independents than Edwards. Bush picks up more Democrats in a race against Edwards than he would in a race against Edwards.Bush also picks up more indepenedents in a race against Edwards than Kerry.


http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/