Will Richardson tell his Iowa supporters to vote for Hillary?

[Herman Munster]

If he wants to be Veep, the best present he could give Hillary is to have his voters in Iowa that don't reach the 15% threshold vote for her in the second round.

He's polling around 10% in Iowa. The boost could be enough to give her Iowa.

[Lerkfish]

1. or..not.

are you saying that he should? His policies don't really align that well with Clinton's, IMHO.

[Herman Munster]

4. well it's obvious his campaign is going nowhere

He's been defending her in debates. It's the logical move if he's interested in VP or a high level position in her administration.

[Lerkfish]

6. a quid pro quo sort of thing?

I would be disappointed if he ditched his own policies for hers, but that's just me. I realize that would be politics as usual.

[paulk]

10. you're correct, outside of his Iraq position their policies

don't "really align real well".

Richardson is generally to the right of Clinton.

His supporters will probably go to Biden, who is also to the right of Clinton.

[skipos]

2. Will Kucinich tell his Iowa supporters to vote for Edwards (as he did in 2004)?

Granted, Kucinich will have one tenth the votes of Richardson by my estimates, but it will be interesting to see.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. Kucinich voters are closer to Kerry ideologically

I think they had a choice. Same as Gephardt's people. However, I know they were told not to go to Dean.

[karynnj]

12. I agree that both Kerry and Dean were closer ideologically

Is it possible that maybe Kuchinich thought that if Dean and Kerry were both lower than Gephardt, who with Dean was suppose to win and Edwards, it could lead to both Dean and Kerry being out after NH - then if it was Gephardt, Edwards and Kuchinich - he would be the only not pro-war choice.

Did anyone ever analyze what happened between round one and round two in Iowa 2004 - Did the Kuchininch people go to Edwards? Iowa people - do any of you know? (The interesting thing is that even with these numbers state wide - it looks like there may be some locations where Hillary at 19% won't make the 15% cut - unless there is a large undecided.

[Debi]

25. Yes, it was a pact the two campaigns made prior to the caucuses

If Kucinich was non-viable then his supporters went to Edwards and vice-versa. Obviously there were more Kucinich non-viables than Edwards and it catapulted Edwards into second place.

[lisa58]

5. I doubt it...

...Hillary's got a lot of money and can run a campaign in every state, she doesn't need his support. He has to have a good showing in Iowa just to raise more money.

I don't think any of the dem candidates are ready to bail - after Iowa and New Hampshire is a different story.

[IA_Seth]

9. It's not about bailing..

In the caucus system if a candidate's supporters do not make up 15% of their precinct they either re-align with a viable candidate (one that has reached the 15%), or remain undecided (which I guess I don't see the point of, but I am sure there is one - like supporting a candidate during the county/district/state conventions)

The supporters of candidates that don't reach the 15% threshold are not forced to go to a major candidate however, and I can see someone like Biden or Richardson actually picking up the less popular candidate's supporters.

[karynnj]

14. If they don't get 15% initially,

is there a way if enough people flock to them for round 2 for them to get back in - or is it like musical chairs that once you're out, you're out?

[IA_Seth]

16. They can stay in,

assuming of course that during the 2nd round they are able to pull supporters from other groups to get to 15%. Here is a quote from a fellow Iowa DUer that explains the process some:

"The presumption that if a candidate is non-viable after the first round that some how they are 'knocked off' and only the viable candidates divvy up the remaining voters is WRONG.

Non-viable candidate supporters can join with either viable groups or non-viable groups to make them viable (the only thing they cannot do is to remain w/the non-viable candidate...well they can but then they won't count).

Also, a supporter of a viable candidate can join with a non-viable group to make them viable (say - to keep a different non-viable candidate from becoming viable OR to keep a different viable candidate from getting a delegate..that's called strategy, so says the IDP)."

[liberalnurse]

7. That's the logical

sweet deal. Like Kucinich did for Edwards last time to hurt Dean.

[solara]

8. Well now, I still believe it aint over til it's over

None of us know how things are going to shake out in Iowa or New Hampshire..and personally I sorta resent feeling like I am being herded into one camp or another before the vote is even in. Miracles happen all the time and I still have faith that someone other than the "Big Three" will be standing tall after the first votes are in.

How non-existent was Bill Clinton's campaign before Iowa? Anyone remember?



INVESTIGATE IMPEACH INDICT IMPRECATE INCARCERATE :patriot:

[SteveM]

11. The Neocons were worried Hillary may choose Richardson, but...

when he came out strongly for U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, Richardson (according to one RW pundit) went out of favor with Hillary, despite the former's Western state advantage, foreign policy experience, and support of the Second Amendment. He is now too leftist.

[Stop Cornyn]

13. Once that'd've made sense. Now Richardson's running against the war. Endorsing Hawkish Hillary would

turn affect his supporters (except to cost him some credibility with them).

[calteacherguy]

15. Assuming he did for the sake of argument, why would his supporters do as told? nt

[IA_Seth]

17. The same reason DK's caucused for JE..

I thought it was crazy at the time, but Kucinich was able to have his supporters caucus for Edwards if he was not viable. They aren't ideologically close (they might talk the same, but they sure didnt at the time), yet it happened.

It's all a part of a candidate's strategy.

[Adelante]

18. Did any of Edwards' supporters caucus for Kucinich?

To make him viable in a district? I've wondered if it went two ways or just the one.

[IA_Seth]

22. As far as I am aware...

It went only one way.. The way it works is that by caucusing for Edwards, some of DK's supporters then made it to the higher-level conventions, where they could influence the party platform, etc.

From what I saw and was told, no JE supporters caucused for DK.

[Adelante]

23. Thanks, I was curious if you'd heard anything else in the state nt

[IA_Seth]

24. Sorry, one more thing...

By making it to successive conventions you can switch candidate affiliation, so some of the DK supporters that made it through could then try to form the 15%. I dont think they ever got there, but I could be mistaken (that seems like an eternity ago).

For example, I caucused for Wes Clark with 2 other people in my precinct. We didnt have 15% obviously. The 2 others went with Dean or Edwards or someone and I never saw them at any successive convention. I caucused for Gephardt on caucus night because it helped give him viability (splitting the delegates instead of handing them all to the other candidates) and I was able to get them to send me to the county convention as a delegate - where I again tried to caucus for Clark. Clark wasn't viable there either, and I ended up with Kerry at the county level and stayed with Kerry through the district and state conventions.

[Debi]

28. You're a stud

That's exactly correct!

Which is why some folks may move from a viable candidate to a non-viable one just to get them a delegate (and block an additional delegate going elsewhere). Then in March there may be the potential to resurrect a candidate and send delegates to the District Convention (and state and national).

Oh, and one thing I forgot but will not be very probable this round. 'undecided/other' can be viable if they get 15% of the count on caucus night. (Just ask Jimmy Carter who came in second in 1976!). If folks of the non-viable don't want to move to each other or to a viable candidate they can choose 'undecided/other' and as long as they reach the 15% threshold they will send a delegate to the county convention under that heading. :crazy:

[Debi]

27. Seth, I think it did happen in Iowa City n/t

[Debi]

26. I think it occured in some of the more liberal precincts (Johnson County)

But only one or two.

[Imagevision]

19. Richardson has already stated publicly that he wouldn't rule out the VP slot...

[Perky]

20. That is idiotic

It presumes that Richardson doe not wnat the votes for himself.

[Stop Cornyn]

21. No, and they wouldn't follow him if he did.

[Debi]

29. I disagree (about the follow him part)

When a candidate makes the request of their followers (to go with a different candidate if they are non-viable) some consessions have usually been made. The prevailing candidate may guarantee that the non-viable candidate's supporters be elected delegates to convention or a part of the non-viable candidate's platform may be moved into the viable candidate's speeches. Wanting to keep their candidate's positions alive - people will go where they are asked. (2004 Kucinich - Edwards).

[Cameron27]

30. It sounds like you're right,

but wow, there's a much more complicated strategic purpose behing all this than I ever realized.

Thanks Seth and Deb, I'm still trying to make some sense out of it.

[Debi]

31. It is for both the candidate and the caucus attendee

Where in other states folks have to decide who they'll vote for, we get to chose not one but two candidates to support at caucus. And our second choice isn't always who we like, it may be a choice to derail a candidate we don't like. (Dean and Gephardt non-viable supporters rarely went to Dean or Gephardt b/c of all the poison between the two candidates leading up to the caucus - obviously it hurt both campaigns.)

[Stop Cornyn]

32. I would agree under other circumstances, but the few Richardson supporters I know joined him because

of his "get the troops out now" stand. They are with Richardson because of that issue. These same people see Hillary as very hawkish and she's their last choice.

[cali]

33. but again look at Kucinich/Edwards 2004

they were inarguably further apart on Iraq than Richardson/Clinton are now.

[Stop Cornyn]

34. In the Iraq issue, Edwards, Kerry, and Gephardt sounded very much alike. Kucinich was a different

voice.

On domestic issues, Edwards had more similarities with Kucinich than any other viable candidate.

In the 2004 cycle, I was an Kucinich supporter who came to support Kerry some time in August or September of 2003. I recall liking Edwards' domestic agenda back then because it more closely resembled Kucinich's.

[cali]

36. baloney

Edwards voted for a real stinker of a bankruptcy bill, voted for Yucca Mountain, either voted for every bush driven security bill there was, or didn't vote at all on those issues. Kerry and Dean were both closer to Kucinich on domestic issues than Edwards.

[Stop Cornyn]

37. The bankruptcy bill Edwards voted for is NOTHING like the 2005 bill and nearly every Democrat voted

for the bill which Edwards also voted for. Your hatred of Edwards clouds your limited judgment.

[jefferson_dem]

35. He could deliver marching orders but will they follow them?

Caucusing is kind of a big deal. When you're talking about someone as polarizing as Hillary (sorry folks but that's the truth), many people may not want to "go there."

[Catchawave]

38. Only if she pays off his campaign expenses like Vilsack's......

Dodd just moved to Iowa, his daughter started kindergarten there today. Good grief!

Where is this going...? Can our Dems get any more bizzarro??