Historically, which has won more presidential contests -- "Change" or "Experience" candidates?

[ClarkUSA]

In a Washington Post poll released in October '92, then-Pres. Bush scored nearly 20 points higher on having the "right experience" for
the job compared with Bill Clinton. Al Gore had a nearly identical 20-point advantage over George W. Bush on the experience question
in an election eve survey by ABC. And we know how both of those elections turned out.

Change usually trumps experience even as the experience issue can be used to sway last minute undecideds. Gerald Ford got close in
'76 because of his ability to call into question Jimmy Carter's inexperience. Ditto with Nixon in '60 with JFK. But what do both Ford and
Nixon have in common? Change trumped experience at the very end.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21918110/page/2/


Yeah, yeah, yeah.... we all know how Bush II got selected, but keep to the point of this article -- which is "change" presidential candidates
tend to trump "experience" candidates.

[AlertLurker]

1. Which has made for better Presidents, I wonder?

The "change" from Clinton to Bush hasn't been so great...

[ClarkUSA]

4. That's not the qualitative point being made, is it?

I'd argue that the "change" from Bush II to Obama will not only be great but transformational domestically but on a world scale:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3748133&mesg_id=3748133

[DrFunkenstein]

2. Depends on The Cycle

I hate to be so cynical, but that probably says alot about America.

[1932]

3. Neither. For Democrats, "hope" has won, and for Republicans, "fear" has won.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. Change has won a distinct minority of elections

The "change" candidate will almost always be from the out party.

There's no sense in the candidate from the party currently holding the position ever being considered the change candidate.

The incumbent party has won many more presidential elections than the out party.

Since the current debate is within a party primary it has little to do with presidential election trends.

The Democratic nominee will be the change candidate in 2008. No way around it.