Rasmussen National Poll: Clinton 36%, Obama 27%, Edwards 14%

[TeamJordan23]

This is the first time Obama has been within single digits of the frontrunner since September 22.

Obama has quite the surge going right now. Leading in Iowa now and closing the gap in NH and nationally it seems.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Evergreen Emerald]

1. I wonder if there is a correlation between the positive press he is getting

and the increase in numbers. Media Matters did a study that showed that most of Obama's press coverage is positive, while most of Clinton's press coverage is negative. I hope we are not letting the press pick our candidate again.

[jefferson_dem]

3. No question about it. Positive press helps.

Of course, *positive press* may simply reflect a *positive campaign* ... :bounce:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Did John Kerry And Al Gore Run Negative Campaigns?

DSB

[Evergreen Emerald]

5. I know that going into Iowa Gephardt ran a negative campaign

against Dean and it hurt him, and helped Kerry and helped Dean. I wonder if that is why Edwards suddenly changed tactics after the last debate when he was booed for his negative comments.

[AtomicKitten]

2. Obama is closing the gap nationally.

Gobama!

http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/02/09/W_OBAMA_wideweb__470x287,0.jpg

[Colobo]

6. What a beautiful family.

[SaveElmer]

7. Corporate crap...

Pushing their anointed one...

National polls mean shit anyway... I have never met an Obama supporter...

[Colobo]

9. Gobama!

[sam sarrha]

8. scarry when edwards is the only one with an anti-coporate fascist platform

[1corona4u]

10. I went through all of the polls on this site...

last night, and there were some real surprises in it. In most cases, I see Hillary as winning in most cases.

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

They updated it today, so I am going to go back through it and see what has changed...

Edited to clarify; for the GE. As in who would win the WH.

[JDPriestly]

12. Did not see SurveyUSA polls pitting Edwards against Republican contenders.

Here is what Rasmussen shows:

Clinton (42%) Giuliani (46%) GIULIANI up 4% *
Edwards (44%) Giuliani (45%) GIULIANI up 1% =

Clinton (46%) Huckabee (43%) Clinton up 3% =
Edwards (50%)Huckabee (33%) Edwards up 17% ***

Clinton (45%) McCain (47%) MCCAIN up 2% =
Edwards (47%) McCain (38%) Edwards up 9% *

Clinton (48%) Paul (38%) Clinton up 10% **
Edwards Paul No poll posted

Clinton (47%) Romney (42%) Clinton up 5% *
Edwards (50%) Romney (34%) Edwards up 16% ***

Clinton (50%) Tancredo (37%) Clinton up 13% **
Edwards Tancredo No poll posted

Clinton (46%) Thompson (44%) Clinton up 2% =
Edwards (48%) Thompson (39%) Edwards up 9% *

I have coded the results in this way. = sign means that difference is within a margin of error of 3% or less. * means difference is 4-9% ** means difference is 10-14% *** means difference is 15% and above.

http:/www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

As you can quickly see, in the 5 polls taken for Edwards, Edwards outpolls two of the most likely Republican candidates, Huckabee and Romney, by 15% and above. Edwards outpolls Thompson and McCain by 4-9% (9%). Edwards loses to Giuliani, but within the 3% margin of error (1%) against Giuliani. Edwards wins against every Republican candidate except Giuliani and loses by only 1% against him. THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR EDWARDS.

Clinton loses to Giuliani by 4% which is outside a 3% margin of error and to McCain by 2% which is within a 3% margin of error. Clinton wins within the 3% margin of error against Huckabee, and Thompson (2%), but wins outside the 3% margin of error at 5% against Romney. The only Republicans that Hillary beats by more than 5-9% are Paul (10%) and Tancredo (13%), and they are longshots to say the least. The pollster did not even bother to poll for Edwards against those two. So Hillary loses by a small margin to two candidates, beats two others within a 3% margin of error, beats one likely candidate by a little more than the 3% margin of error and wins big only against Paul and Tancredo, who are likely losers in the Republican primary contest.

THIS DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR HILLARY. Unless she pulls ahead a lot before November 2008, it will be a close race, a race she could easily lose. These results are consistent with past Rasmussen polls pitting these candidate against Republicans over the past months.

A lot of people criticize the Rasmussen polls, but these are only the polls I find that pit Edwards against the Republicans. (I'm not that great with these things. You may find more.)

A segment of DU does not understand why I am so negative about Hillary. I do not want to lose in 2008. As these polls show, Edwards can win. There is a very good chance that Hillary cannot. Just look at these polls and think it over. Polls aren't everything, but close to everything rides on the November 2008 election. We don't need a candidate who starts out behind. We need a candidate who is ahead at the starting gate. Hillary is way behind Edwards in these polls, and these are the polls that count at this point.

I apologize in advance if I haven't calculated this right. Just correct my figures if I am wrong. Thanks.

[Hardrada]

11. National polls mean little at this point.

Wait until after the Third Sunday in Advent.