Okay-there are basically two weeks left in Iowa

[underpants]

by December 19th everyone will be getting ready for a long Chirstmas weekend.

Anyone still out pounding on doors will frankly look desperate or having tragically misplaced priorities. Then you have a short week before the New Year and then one last all out until the caucuses.

Two weeks.

Hold on.


Oh and by the way :hide: Hillary might not win this thing afterall. I think everyone in DC and the media had just about decided it for her but Obama and Edwards seem to caught the better wind of that. We'll see.

The seas are about to get rough.

[Virginia Dare]

1. What if it ends up a statistical dead heat?

I don't have anything against the people of Iowa, but it would be nice if some of the rest of us had a small say in who becomes the nominee.

[underpants]

2. Well we do

I know it is IOWA IOWA IOWA but remember McCain WON Iowa AND New hampshire.


That being said , I agree there is way too much put on this one state and we are going to choke on corn for another 10 years just for this one election.

Statistical dead heat?? Wow then I guess we will just have to tune in again maybe this time they will have a cage match or best two-ouf-of-three falls or something like that.

[goodgd_yall]

3. Iowa isn't going to be a make and break state

It will just make things a little more interesting (assuming HRC and Giulianib don't win). There will be much speculation about the future outcome in the other primaries. But Iowa will end up being an anomalie.

[suston96]

4. Hillary might not win...?

Really? And what does that mean?

"Hillary, Rudy May Know Life After Death

By Dick Morris

It now seems possible, and some would say probable, that both front-runners for their party nominations will be wiped out in the early caucuses and primaries. It may well be that neither Hillary Clinton nor Rudy Giuliani win anything before the Florida primary on Jan. 29.

Hillary is now behind in Iowa and her lead in New Hampshire has dwindled from an average of 19 percent in five polls in October to a 13 percent average in five polls in the first half of November to only 9 percent in four polls at the end of the month. In the last two polls, she holds only a 7-point lead (source: www.realclearpolitics.com). If Hillary loses Iowa, it is easy to see her sinking in New Hampshire five days later.

Giuliani may fare no better. Clearly he is on his way to a humiliating defeat in Iowa where he inexplicably chose not to spend time or resources. He looks to finish third but a late surge by John McCain could knock him into fourth.

*******

But recover they both likely will. Remember how Gary Hart beat Mondale in New Hampshire in 1984 and Mondale came back to win? And how Paul Tsongas beat Clinton there in 1992 and Clinton eventually won? And how McCain defeated Bush in New Hampshire in 2000 but how Bush came back to win? Different year. New candidates. Same deal."



Dick Morris does not like, maybe hates Hillary Clinton.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/hillary_rudy_may_know_life_aft.html

[goodgd_yall]

5. Sure, she'll recover

as will Giuliani (I think). I'm more certain of Hillary doing well in most states than Giuliani, but early defeats are not going to sink HRC.

[Occam Bandage]

6. HRC losing Iowa is necessary for her losing the nomination, but not sufficient.

Edwards losing Iowa is necessary and sufficient for him to lose the nomination. Obama losing Iowa is necessary and probably sufficient for a complete loss.

HRC losing Iowa and NH is probably necessary, but not sufficient, for her to lose. Obama losing IA and NH will be sufficient for a loss.

If it's not settled by Super Tuesday, I honestly would have no idea what's going to happen.