A question about MIchigan and Florida

[Perky]

Iowa: January 3

New Hampshire: January 8

Michigan: January 15

Nevada: January 19

South Carolina: Jan. 26

Florida: January 29

Tsunami Tuesday: Feb 5


If I can get every one to accept the hypothetical that it is not unreasonable to assume that no one candidate is going to win Iowa and New Hampshire and that Nevada, while importantprobably is not decisive and interesting strategic decision emerges.

AS I understand it Michigan has devolved into a beuaty contest becuse they lost their delgates when they moved up and most of the candidates have pledged not to campaign there.
Given that the pledge was more about not offending kely Iowan and New Hampshire voters and given the likelihood that those two early contests will not be decisive.


Does anyone see a mad rush to Michigan by Obama CLinton and Edwards? THere are no delegates in play.....but there is momentum to be gained by winning the Beauty contest... Right?

But who is on the Ballot? I think I read that Hillary will be. But I could be wrong. Are all the candidates on the Michigan Ballot?


Likewise if Sout Carolina does not give us a presumptive nominee.... Florida would be a huge momentum builder going into Tsunami Tuesday. Are the candidates going to play a game of "chicken" and start campaigning in those Beuaty contest states with an eye towards the next primary?

[flvegan]

1. Florida's delegates won't count.

The DNC stripped us of them when our primary moved forward.

[Perky]

3. I know it not about delegates... it is about momentum.

[flvegan]

4. Well, I can tell you this...I haven't seen a single ad here.

And they've sworn off campaigning here, so I doubt it.

[Freddie Stubbs]

2. All candidates are on the FL ballot, only Hillary and Kucinich are on the MI ballot

[Perky]

5. When is the Michigan Deadline?

If it is just HIllary and Dennis... It will probably be ignored.

Unless Obama and Edwards tell their people to vote for Dennis....Ouch.

[Freddie Stubbs]

6. It has already passed

[rinsd]

8. Dodd is on the MI ballot too.

[ieoeja]

7. After New Hampshire the winners will concentrate on South Carolina.

They will not ignore Nevada. But it will be less important than South Carolina due to the number of delegates.

The first tier candidate who did worst in Iowa and New Hampshire will probably put more effort into Nevada in an attempt to get some momentum going. Sort of like kicking that last minute field goal in the first half so you don't go into the locker room at halftime down 28-0.


After South Carolina the candidates have little over a week to spread out over dozens of Feb 5th states. They simply can not afford a minute of their time to waste in Florida. This is one of the facts Floridians seem to have grossly overlooked (RNC and DNC rules obviously being the biggest fact they chose to ignore).

[rinsd]

9. There will be no mad rush to MI. Candidates are barred from campaigning there.

Same with FL.

[Perky]

13. They are not actually barred THey have pledged not to campaign there

but that is really about not pissing off voters in IA and NH.....The question is if IA and NH have gone by the way side, are all pledges off?

[JNelson6563]

10. I'd wager MI & FLA delegates are admitted

They will be admitted to convention because our nominee will allow it. In MI the candidates are Dodd, Clinton, Kucinich and Graval. Oh and "uncommitted" who almost everyone I know is vcting for.

:toast:

Julie

[MaineDem]

11. I agree with you. They will eventually be seated

The Dem nominee will not want a fight at the convention.

I hope Uncommitted wins in Michigan! :)

[JNelson6563]

12. The nominee will need MI to win

Our status as a blue state is not very safe. This is known to the strategists, they won't risk alienating the base in MI, FLA either.

I have no idea how things look in the UP or the south end of the mitten but in the north Uncommitted is very popular. Thankfully I will also have influece at our District convention where we elect our District's national delegates.

Cheers :toast:

Julie