You heard it here... (Iowa predictions)

[Infinite Hope]

You heard it here, however surprising my predictions may be...

The Democratic caucuses will end with this top 3:
1)Edwards
2)Obama
3)Clinton

Republicans will have this top 3:
1)Huckabee
2)Paul
3)Romney

[FogerRox]

1. But what if

1)Edwards
2)Obama
3)Biden
4)Clinton

And dont forget Dodds big bump< Doods actions are just the stuff that attract the hard core DEM, one that goes to caucus's.

[VolcanoJen]

29. I see it kinda like that...

... with Biden in the mix.

I'm thinking...

1)Obama
2)Edwards
3)Biden
4)Clinton

Iowa is fascinating! At any rate I think the Top Two will be thisclose.

[youthere]

2. Sorry..but I don't believe the top three will be the top three in Iowa.

Iowans don't like the media choosing their candidates for them.

[Debi]

3. But Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were ahead nationally

what the hell is wrong with you Iowans?

[youthere]

4. It's all the jell-O shots at caucus.

[1corona4u]

7. AHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHhahahahahah

what flavor?

[Debi]

38. Hey, youthere, I wanted to link corona to the jell-o shot thread

but can't find it - do you remember how that started?

[youthere]

40. I think it started here...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=152x19235

[Debi]

44. Thank you, seems my ability to search for stuff is on vaca as well! n/t

[1corona4u]

6. LOL...

:-)

[Debi]

39. Hey, I'm in Montana right now - I can badmouth those backwoods hicks

(at least for the next week) :7

[CoffeeCat]

46. How can you badmouth us on the computer?

You know we don't have electricity here, so we won't see your
insults.

Maybe you could cross stitch some insults on a pillow. As
long as you didn't use no big-dollar words or nothin!

;)

[Debi]

47. I SAID I WAS IN MONTANA

x( (Like anyone here know's how to read/write)

But they do have indoor plumbing :scared:

[Strelnikov_]

5. Whoa, Huckster and Paul at 1/2

Thats gonna give the Reich oligarchs a case of the drizzles.

[Lasher]

11. Yeah, that would be quite a late surge for Paul.

He's currently polling 5.8%


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

[calteacherguy]

8. I agree Hillary will place third.

I'd like to see Obama come out on top, but it very well could be Edwards.

[0007]

9. I think ya may be on to something. nt

[loveangelc]

10. I actually think Clinton could win...and Im not even a supporter. nt

[Stop Cornyn]

16. I agree. I think she has better than a 25% chance of winning Iowa, which means it over.

[Double T]

12. Could very well be the outcome.............

we will see. Edwards seems to be coming on strong in the stretch.

[Stop Cornyn]

13. Iowa D: Edwards, Obama, Hillary. Iowa R: Huckabee, Romney. McCain. NH D: Obama, Edwards, Hillary.

NH R: Romney, McCain, Paul

[Quixote1818]

50. I think you have it right. Though Hillary may do OK in NH because it's

close to NY.

I don't believe Paul will do very well in Iowa. Not sure why the OP has him doing so well. He will do a little better than Kucinich.

[unapatriciated]

14. I hope your right

I still think Kucinich is the best choice but since they didn't include him, I'd like to see Edwards take it.

[Fried Bread]

15. Obama 44%, Edwards 27%, Hillary 15%, Biden 9%, Remainder 5%

[napi21]

17. I'll give you MY prediction.

1. Edwards
2. Biden
3. Obama
4. Clinton

We'll see. Not very long to wait!

[TwilightGardener]

18. According to a RealClearPolitics poll, Mittens is back in the lead in Iowa.

[saltpoint]

19. Wow, the Republicans just completely suck this time around, don't they?

All 8 Republicans are standing in a line waiting to suck a doorknob.

That's about as useful as they can muster, and sucking that doorknob isn't going to do them OR the doorknob any good.

At least Rudy is tanking by the hour.

[TwilightGardener]

20. LOL! They are indeed pathetic--every GOP candidate will have "surged"

and then crashed (and possibly will have surged again) by Super Tuesday. The flies just can't decide which steaming shitpile to settle on.

[saltpoint]

21. This is true. And I don't ordinarily feel much empathy for flies...

The Thompson campaign shot up for about 2 weeks, fizzled and popped. then plummeted earthward again. I think it's somewhere at the bottom of a dumpster in Knoxville.

When Ron Paul is drawing 6% -- the same percentage Giuliani's getting -- in Iowa, you know it's going to be a bad year for the GOP.

Which is just fine by me!

[1corona4u]

24. Yeah, that's a beautiful thing...

[saltpoint]

26. !

[1corona4u]

23. Really?

That's surprising...seriously.

[TwilightGardener]

27. Yep--

for likely caucus-goers, Huckabee barely edges Mittens, but for VERY likely caucus-goers (not sure how that's determined), Mittens edges Huckabilly.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_GOP_Iowa_caucus_poll.html

[Truth2Tell]

22. ok, Iowa

D) Edwards, Obama, Clinton
R) Romney, Huckabee, Paul

Edit to add: A suprise 5th place finish for Kucinich, who breaks 5%. :)

[snowbear]

25. My prediction for Iowa....

1.) No clue
2.) No clue
3.) No clue


~~~~~~~~

..

[Lucinda]

34. I see there is something else we agree on this week.

I am beyond clueless about Iowa. :D

[snowbear]

35. Well... you have to admit..

It's a guaranteed "fool proof" prediction!

[Lucinda]

36. And incredibly honest too!

It's a win-win for us. :D

[MadBadger]

28. After seeing the latest ABC/Wash Post Poll...

1.Obama
2.Edwards
3.Clinton
4.Biden


Republicans
1.Huckabee
2.Romney
3.Thompson
4.McCain

[ZinZen]

45. Just a hunch

but I get the feeling Biden will place in the top three. Maybe above Clinton.

[TwilightGardener]

30. My Iowa predictions: Mittens vs. Obama.

I think those two are actually going to be the party nominees. I'm not sure how I feel about that particular head-to-head matchup yet.

[tammywammy]

31. My D pick

Obama, Clinton, Biden

[loveangelc]

32. Clinton, Obama, Edwards

just as it's always been.

[CoffeeCat]

33. Iowa predictions...

1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton

My prediction is that Edwards and Obama will clearly take Iowa, each garnering
the majority of delegates, and running a very tight race against each other.

Hillary comes in third, but a very distant third.

My reasoning is due to two things:

First, Obama and Edwards are successfully running effective campaigns in Iowa. They
listen, allow questions, meet with small groups and are viewed as very open and honest.
Hillary's campaign has not been run this way. In addition, her planted questions and
problems with volunteer dirty tricks have not played well here. She won't inspire enough
people to get them to the caucuses.

Secondly, most second-tier Dem candidates will not be "viable." During the caucus, if a
candidate does not secure at least 15 percent support of the total number of caucus
goers--that candidate is deemed "not viable." Supporters of those non viable candidates
can hold out or they can join a "viable" candidate. Most caucus goers choose to
join another candidate group. Most likely--Biden, Richardson, Dodd, and Kucinich will
not be viable and those caucus goers will join other candidate groups. Since most of
those second-tier candidates trend progressive, my guess is that the overwhelming majority
go to Obama or Edwards. This will further widen their success in the caucuses, and
fuel a competition between Edwards and Obama, leaving Clinton trailing far behind.

That's my 2 cents.

[Quixote1818]

51. I think Edwards could break away much like Kerry did

and get around 35%. Obama around 27, Clinton 22, Richardson 8%, Biden 6%.

[JCMach1]

37. Edwards, Clinton, Obama

on the Repug side...


Huckabee
McCain
Romney
Paul

[Rambis]

41. Hope that is the outcome here

Go Edwards!

[cali]

42. I think you have the dems right and the repukes all wrong.

It's more like:

Romney
Thompson
Huckabee

People will have buyers remorse about Hucky before they buy.

[Infinite Hope]

43. One thing...

I've considered is that Hillary may be fourth behind Richardson. I think people should also be careful to discount Paul from entering the top three. He has a lot of money and a lot of interest in his campaign. Iowa is a state where second choices and/or default candidates prosper.

[William769]

48. Better buy a new crystal ball.

[Yukari Yakumo]

49. My reality-based predictions

Clinton 40%
Obama 35%
Edwards 25%

[Quixote1818]

52. Very unlikely

Clinton's second place votes come in WAY behind Edwards and Obama which is make and break in Iowa. It's a three way race but Hillary will pick up very little second place votes and almost certainly come in third place or no better than second. The Clinton's have crunched the numbers and they know she is in bad shape in Iowa.