How many Democrats will participate in the Iowa caucus?

[MethuenProgressive]

What's the ratio between registered Democrats and caucus partipants?

[calteacherguy]

1. 6-10% of elible voters.

The Myth of the Rational Iowa Voter
Paul Waldman | October 3, 2007 | web only

<snip>

If this is a typical election, somewhere between 6 and 10 percent of voting-eligible Iowans will bother to show up to a caucus. Yes, you read that right. Those vaunted Iowa voters are so concerned about the issues, so involved in the political process, so serious about their solemn deliberative responsibilities as guardians of the first-in-the-nation contest, that nine out of ten can't manage to haul their butts down to the junior high on caucus night. One might protest that caucusing is hard -- it requires hours of time and a complicated sequence of standing in corners, raising hands, and trading votes (here is an explanation of the ridiculousness). But so what? If ten presidential candidates personally came to your house to beg for your vote, wouldn't you set aside an evening when decision time finally came?

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_myth_of_the_rational_iowa_voter

[Lucinda]

2. Yep....I think that's close...I remember hearing 8-10 %

[calteacherguy]

3. I just found the specifics and edited my post. nt

[Lucinda]

7. Wow....I thought 8 % was small...6 % is an amazing number. I wonder

how it will turn out this cycle? Obama and Hillary are both supposedly bringing in a lot of new caucus goers. Guess we'll know pretty soon!

[MethuenProgressive]

5. Maybe 95K to 124K in '04 - So theres... how many registered Dems?

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/iowa_2_under_age_25.php
Now consider the actual vote history data. The Iowa Democratic Party reports that 124,000 Iowans participated in the 2004 Democatic caucus, but at least three campaigns have confirmed for me that on the vaunted Voter Activation Network (VAN) list maintained by the Party, only about 95,000 voters are identified as 2004 caucus participants. What happened to the roughly one participant in four that seems to be missing?
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[cyclezealot]

6. whats worse yet.

at least among the Republicans, and probably the Democrats too. The candidates bestowe gifts, even money on many of them to get them to vote. The Republicans last time around paid committed caucus goers 35 dollars to vote. If it were a primary, would that not be illegal? Reason to end the crap about Iowa and New Hampshire's right to go first.

[TeamJordan23]

4. I have a feeling it is going to be higher that previous years.

But just don't know by how much. Maybe 15%.

[hayu_lol]

8. Someone correct me if I'm wrong on this...

but I understand that they can make their minds to caucus and just walk in, get their names checked on a list and participate.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. The last poll breakdown of affiliation of likely Dem caucus goers was about 84%-16%

84-registered Dems
16-unaffiliated voters planning to caucus Dem

Of course, that break-out is no more reliable than the poll.

90% registered Dems is probably reasonable.