SaveElmer
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:27 AM
Original message |
| How predictive is the Iowa Result in New Hampshire...? |
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Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 11:32 AM by SaveElmer
Well...if you exclude years where an incumbent is running...in both parties...of the 10 contested races, the Iowa victor won New Hampshire only 3 times...
2004 IA - Kerry
NH - Kerry
2000 IA - Gore
NH - Gore
IA - Bush
NH - McCain
1996 IA - Dole
NH - Buchanan
1992 IA - Harkin
NH - Tsongas
1988 IA - Gephardt
NH - Dukakis
IA - Dole
NH - Bush
1984 IA - Mondale
NH - HART
1980 IA - Bush
NH - Reagan
1976 IA - Carter (actually uncommitted...but Carter #1 of named candidates)
NH - Carter
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| Renew Deal
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:31 AM
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| 1. 2000 and 2004 were peculiar years for Democrats. |
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Gore was unbeatable in 2000. Kerry was always #2 in NH (even if the polls didn't say it). Once Dean melted down, Kerry got the vote. Also, NH was held closer to Iowa than in the past. 2008 is going to be another strange year that breaks the rules. It's close to the holiday's. IA and NH are scheduled closer than ever. Colleges are out. More people are aware of the primary than ever.
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| SaveElmer
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:33 AM
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| 2. 2000 yes...Gore was a defacto incumbent... |
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I disagree on 2004 however...
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| Renew Deal
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:35 AM
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| 3. Why do you disagree on 2004? |
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The Kerry #2 thing or something else?
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| SaveElmer
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:38 AM
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| 4. There was no built in advantage for any candidate... |
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I mean there is a reason for a candidates victory in every primary...sometimes it is built in like Gore being a defacto incumbent...and why I did not include races where there was an incumbent...bu tusually just the flow of the campaign...
2004 was just the result of the vagaries of that years race...just pointing out the NH primary is not a reliable indicator of who will win...in fact 70%$ of the time the IA victor does not win the NH primary in contested races.
So IA won't be the end for any of the frontrunners IMO...
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| MethuenProgressive
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:41 AM
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Them were the days.
(we need a warm fuzzy flashback smilie)
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| NewYorkerfromMass
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:56 AM
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| 6. Iowa has always favored geographic neighbors/sons |
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but Kerry smashed through that in 2004. One of the many amazing things about Kerry's win.
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| Colobo
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:57 AM
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| 7. It will apply to Obama. |
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After tomorrow, the nomination will be his. :)
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Mon May 06th 2024, 05:51 PM
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