ruggerson
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Wed Jan-02-08 08:48 PM
Original message |
I think Obama is going to win Iowa by a sizable margin |
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Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 08:49 PM by ruggerson
I don't think it's going to even be close.
I think the three way tie meme is just media/horserace fluff.
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1corona4u
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Wed Jan-02-08 08:50 PM
Response to Original message |
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Edwards Obama ????
That much, I'm sure of.
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mckeown1128
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Wed Jan-02-08 08:52 PM
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2. I don't think he will... |
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I would love it if he came in first but I think it will be
Edwards Clinton Obama
within a few points of eachother...
Obama, like all before him, will fail to convince the young vote to come out. I wish he could...but I think it is impossible, even for someone as great as he.
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ronnykmarshall
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Wed Jan-02-08 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
4. That why the whole causus system is very odd. |
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I can't imagine people in my area going out to causus. These queens don't even get out of bed before the crack of noon.
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tigereye
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
15. the idea of caucus is so cool, though |
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like an old fashioned town meeting, with people having to reach some kind of consensus about their candidate....
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ronnykmarshall
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
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That's why I'm so envious of the people of Iowa. They get to see up close all the candidates and meet them. It's a wonderful event.
It's too bad that we can't even get over 50% of registered voters to actually VOTE.
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ruggerson
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
18. I'm not so sure it should be the same state each time |
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I don't think Iowa is very representative of the entire nation. I know Iowans take their job very seriously, but there are different concerns in different states.
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mckeown1128
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Thu Jan-03-08 04:04 AM
Response to Reply #15 |
38. I understand there is a lot of intimidation |
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at the caucus's though. People have the right to a secret ballot. People shouldn't have to expose who they are voting for to there neighbors and coworkers.
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jefferson_dem
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Wed Jan-02-08 08:54 PM
Response to Original message |
3. I'm predicting that, with record turnout, the final tally will be like this - - |
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Obama - 33 Edwards - 28 Clinton - 26 The rest - 13
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ruggerson
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Wed Jan-02-08 08:55 PM
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5. That could be a pretty strong prediction |
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I wouldn't be surprised to see the margin be more like 6-7 points between first and second.
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annie1
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:00 PM
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8. i think youi're right. s--t. Hillary's gonna have her ass handed to her. *sigh*. |
fightindonkey
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:58 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
33. And Barack Will Have His Ass Handed To Him In NH |
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LOL! Poor Obama fangurls.
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Nedsdag
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:06 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
13. I like that prediction. |
MalloyLiberal
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Wed Jan-02-08 08:57 PM
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6. Won't be voting in the General Election then, or will vote third party |
ruggerson
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:03 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
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I don't support Obama (as some may know :) ) for the nomination, but will be a BIG supporter of his should he win the nomination and be our candidate.
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Renew Deal
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Wed Jan-02-08 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
20. You weren't for a Dem in the GE either way. |
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Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 10:42 PM by Bleachers7
That's plainly obvious.
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MalloyLiberal
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Thu Jan-03-08 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #20 |
36. Funny cause I voted for Kerry in 2004 but nice try |
Gloria
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Thu Jan-03-08 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
37. I'm feeling the same, MalloyLiberal.....very disgusted with the |
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"top" 2 (Hillary and Obama)
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Sparkly
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Wed Jan-02-08 08:58 PM
Response to Original message |
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I think his lead depends on a great number of first-time caucus-goers, doesn't it? Yet he could get a boost from Kucinich's mini-endorsement.
And Edwards is a clear favorite 2nd choice -- there could be a big percentage right there, from the under-15% people.
Clinton's supporters in polls might be the most reliable to turn out.
It's anybody's guess!!
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ChiciB1
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:01 PM
Response to Original message |
9. I Think You Are Very Wrong... Just My Intuition Telling Me... Not Based |
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on polls or whatever, just think it's not going to be that way!
We shall see!
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Rageneau
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:01 PM
Response to Original message |
10. As Twain said: "Differences of opinion is what makes horse races." |
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I believe a different horse will win this race; a philly.
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Perky
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:03 PM
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12. I agree.....Obama takes it with 39% Edwards 2nd around 33% |
abburdlen
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:09 PM
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14. I think you are right |
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My wild guess at this point is Obama: 35 Edwards: 28 Clinton: 26
I just wonder when we start hearing talk of which candidate will be the anti-Obama choice.
(note, I'm firmly in the undecided camp but Obama is my distant second choice)
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Bullet1987
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Wed Jan-02-08 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #14 |
16. I don't think it will be the Youth vote...but Independents |
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and first-time caucus goers that come out and sail Obama to the win. I also don't think any of the 2nd tier break through the 15%.
Obama: 37% Edwards: 32% Clinton: 29%
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DaLittle Kitty
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Wed Jan-02-08 10:31 PM
Response to Original message |
19. Obama Says Nothing and Will Stand... For Nothing! |
Catherine Vincent
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Wed Jan-02-08 10:39 PM
Response to Original message |
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Obama supporters probably had an Obamagasm after reading what you just posted. ;-)
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annie1
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Wed Jan-02-08 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
23. lol. i love all the obamanisms. lol. at least those are amusing. :D |
MzShellG
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:24 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
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I like that term. Thanks. :)
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Catherine Vincent
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:54 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
ruggerson
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
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I hope he doesn't, but I got my reality glasses on.
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youthere
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Wed Jan-02-08 10:42 PM
Response to Original message |
22. He very well could... |
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but as much as I like the sound of that, I believe Edwards will win Iowa. Obama second, and maybe just maybe my dark horse Biden third.
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IndianaJones
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Wed Jan-02-08 10:47 PM
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24. I disagree. We'll know tomorrow around this time. nt. |
0007
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:07 PM
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25. I know he will! Absolutely certain, no doubt about it! |
FrenchieCat
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:10 PM
Response to Original message |
26. I'm not sure that he will, but if he does, |
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it will because of the new caucus goers and the independents. If that's the case, it will illustrate the fact that this man can calvanize enough new voters for the general election to actually win in a landslide.....against popular beliefs sold here on DU under the guise of "there's still racism out there, he will lose the GE". I'd love to shut them folks up for sure! :)
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AtomicKitten
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #26 |
30. After Katrina, I would love America to prove the naysayers wrong. |
calteacherguy
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:46 PM
Response to Original message |
29. Edwards has a good chance, and so does Clinton. |
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Anything could happen. We'll just have to wait and see.
I do hope Obama's supporters turnout in large numbers. I've got a hunch...
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fightindonkey
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Wed Jan-02-08 11:57 PM
Response to Original message |
32. Iowa: Lowest Voter Turnout, Older Voters, Iowa Never Elected A Woman To Higher Office |
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Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 11:59 PM by fightindonkey
Edwards or Clinton will be high. Obama, I don't see him getting the top. Hillary will win NH.
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DFW
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Thu Jan-03-08 12:05 AM
Response to Original message |
34. Obama may well win Iowa, but what will he have won? |
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It's a beauty contest that will be won by a small number of voters in a rural Midwestern State. Iowa has a lot of highly educated and motivated progressives, more than an outsider might think at first opinion, but Tom Harkin is, I find, less typical of Iowa than Chuck Grassley.
How will Obama do against the others in NY/PA/CA/TX/IL etc etc?
I wish ALL the Democratic candidates would conserve their resources for contests that land them delegates in Denver. I also wish that Iowa were a primary like the others.
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annie1
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Thu Jan-03-08 04:21 AM
Response to Reply #34 |
40. He'll take IL, he can close the gap in CA, he'll lose NY, TX and NM, and prob. PA, .... |
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Edited on Thu Jan-03-08 04:24 AM by annie1
but he'll win GA, SC, and now that FLorida and MI are out for the dems, no one can have those. http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/georgia.html
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L84TEA
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Thu Jan-03-08 12:09 AM
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it is gonna be
Edwards Hillary Biden ' ' '
obama...
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Egnever
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Thu Jan-03-08 04:09 AM
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39. I would like it if you were right |
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My gut tells me its not going to happen though.
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readmoreoften
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Thu Jan-03-08 04:51 AM
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41. Good lord I hope you're wrong, rug. I think it's going to be Edwards. /nt |
Andromeda
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Thu Jan-03-08 05:04 AM
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42. It's possible, but anything's possible.. |
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so I'm not even going to guess. My candidate is Hillary but I'll be happy if Edwards wins. If he does he's going to have to raise a lot more money if he wants remain competitive.
Iowa's not really a make or break state because it doesn't necessarily choose the person who will win the nomination. Tom Harkin won Iowa when Bill Clinton was running for president. Bill didn't even caucus in Iowa but he went on to win N.H.
Howard Dean was expected to win handily but he bombed and came in third instead. Other candidates like Gephardt won Iowa in 1988 and there have been some others.
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Nimrod2005
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Thu Jan-03-08 07:47 AM
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43. I am predicting Obama 33%, Edwards 29%, and the HRC 18% |
boston bean
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Thu Jan-03-08 07:48 AM
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sampsonblk
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Thu Jan-03-08 08:00 AM
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Obama's two-in-the-bush strategy sounds good. But I've seen it fail enough times not to put any faith in it. Not yet anyway.
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