I just posted a thread in GD showing that the CNN exit polls correctly predicted New Hampshire.

[Skinner]

I apologize for posting in two places. But I think this is important enough to put in both GD forums. Here is a link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2639218

[displacedtexan]

1. Thanks!

I would've missed it.

[Joe the Revelator]

2. Just out of curiosity, why didn't we go out of our way to show the outliers in '04

There were exit polls back then that said that Kerry lost.

I don't think the vote was rigged, but also don't think we shouldn't look into it.

[KaryninMiami]

4. Actually, the exit polls showed a Kerry win- that's how we know the machines were tampered with

There's tons of credible research about this from an array of sources. Do a Google search- you'll see for yourself to show that the exit polls in 2004 showed a Kerry win. They also showed a landslide in 2006 for the Dems to takeover Congress but they won by a very margin. Last night may or may not have been rigged- it's too soon to tell, although Skinner just posted the CNN Exit polls so if they are correct, there might not be any issue here - but we all need to be very wary when there's a huge discrepancy- especially if it's only in one of the races as it appeared in NH. There's way too much evidence of fraud in prior elections to let anything slip by without our carefully checking all of the facts (source codes would be good too but alas, these are "private" and not made available by the partisan machine makers).

2004


Officially, President Bush won November's election by 2.5%, yet exit polls showed Kerry winning by 3%<1>. According to a report to be released today by a group of university statisticians, the odds of a discrepancy this large between the national exit poll and election results happening by accident are close to 1 in a million.

In other words, by random chance alone, it could not have happened. But it did.

Two alternatives remain. Either something was wrong with the exit polling, or something was wrong with the vote count.

Exit polls have been used to verify the integrity of elections in the Ukraine, in Latin America, in Germany, and elsewhere. Yet in November 2004, the U.S. exit poll discrepancy was much more than normal exit poll error (and similar to that of the invalid Ukraine election.
http://verifiedvotingfoundation.org/article.php?id=5689

--------------------
On the afternoon of Election Day 2004, the world was abuzz with the news: Exit polls indicated that John Kerry would win the election and become the next president of the United States. That proved not to be the case.

According to the official count-that is the number of votes tallied, not necessarily the number of votes cast-George W. Bush beat Kerry by a margin of three million votes. The exit polls however had predicted a margin of victory for Kerry of five million votes. In every "battleground" state across the nation the final tally swung clearly beyond the exit poll's margin of error to favor the president.

How can one explain this eight-million-vote discrepancy between the Election Day exit polls and the official count? Either the exit poll data was wrong or the official count was wrong.
http://www.electionintegrity.org/book

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen

[Joe the Revelator]

5. Most of the exit polls yesterday showed an Obama win, just like Kerry in '04...

CNN is the outlier, because its the only major exit poll that showed a Hillary victory.

[robbedvoter]

8. They all showed them close, and 57% women were not in the sample....

Facialexpressionsgate did it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. No

Only one group does the exit polls and they disseminate the results to cooperating media outlets...

[robbedvoter]

10. Kerry was leading with men, women - all categories, So it was aliens....

Don't compare primaries with general elections when it comes to election fraud. Hillary doesn't own machines. And those numbers in the exit polls were much closer that the Kerry/Bush

[OnTheOtherHand]

22. "credible research" that can't pass peer review?

With due respect, what qualifies any of these people to talk about exit polls? Or more to the point, why can't they convince the political scientists? Are we all In On It?

Drives me nuts.

OK, let's see.... Oh, there's nothing here to rebut. "Either the exit poll data was wrong or the official count was wrong." Basically right. Or, better, "The exit poll data were wrong and/or the official count was wrong."

My opinion: The official count didn't match voter intent, but the exit polls were even further off.

You say that the exit polls are "how we know the machines were tampered with." :shrug:

[unc70]

33. I have peer-reviewed articles on data validation

Not a political scientist; computers, social science, security, data analysis and validation. My peer-reviewed articles were long ago.

I don't know what happened yesterday. We won't find out unless we soberly look at all the data without prejudice and see where that leads us.

[OnTheOtherHand]

34. ?

I'm not arguing against data validation, as I hope goes without saying. I'm responding to the claim that the exit polls demonstrate that the machines miscounted in 2004; I disagree with that.

I support, and work for, routine vote count audits of optical scanners. (Hand counts are fine wherever they are viable, although I think those should be audited too.) In the meantime, by all means let's do whatever we can to assess the available evidence.

[unc70]

35. I think you can't conclude anything from the exit polls

Either in 2004 or yesterday in NH.

If one had the raw data from the exit polling, you could do a lot of checking against precinct-level ballot and voter data and might learn something that would hold up to scrutiny. My concern is that until we are able to do an end-to-end audit, we don't know where the differences originate and what might be causing them. There could be a problem almost anywhere in the voting systems, the polling, or our understanding of the voters.

Until there is a complete audit, we just don't know. Think how you would feel if we some day found a problem like one I helped find years ago. Some research data when analyzed surprised everyone enough to merit a closer look. Eventually, we discovered that the scanner on rare occassions misread the marks. It was overly sensitive to the alignment of the marked boxes on the sheets, but the main problem was that the stepping motors feeding the sheets interferred with the power going to the electronic circuits, all because of an inadequate power supply and poor design. The resulting errors in the scanned data were infrequent, but followed a couple of patterns.

Because of things I have seen, I try to keep an open mind.

[OnTheOtherHand]

38. excellent -- I think we agree

I have just enough experience with op-scan (not voting) that I am prepared to contemplate a wide range of possibilities. I think a lot of the fraud hypotheses are hyped, but I also think we should have robust audits so we don't have to speculate (about either fraud or just plain cock-up, which we know for sure has happened with the scanners).

[unc70]

39. I concur; we seem to be in agreement - puzzled and curious.

And I see PoliSci in your profile. More quant psych and clinical trials/health effects here.

[OnTheOtherHand]

40. I first came here trying to help Febble

so you and I are practically related. (Also, we've both been flamed by galloglas, and I think we both know WillYourVoteBCounted, although I haven't met her in the flesh.)

[Zynx]

26. There were many polls coming in that showed Kerry would lose.

[MuseRider]

3. Well how about that!

They actually DO work don't they. At least they do work when you are not manipulating and cheating. Will wonders never cease!

Do you think we might be able to resurrect the old tried and true method for the general?

Tis a miracle I tell ya.

[DeepModem Mom]

6. Thanks, Skinner! nt

[robbedvoter]

7. Thank you. It's essential. Election fraud shouldn't be trivialized like this.

Republicans own the machines. General Election issue.

[rudy23]

11. Primaries ARE a general election issue. You don't think Republicans have a stake in who they face

in the general election?

[KittyWampus]

15. It's an underlying point though- it's too hard to know for sure when electronic machines

record and tabulate votes.

If exit polls had been different and showed Obama winning, there's still be no recourse.

[progressivebydesign]

20. Thank you. I was saddened at how many 'stolen vote' threads posted last night. n/t

[Cameron27]

9. Very interesting,

nice work Skinner.

[KittyWampus]

13. Note- someone just posted Pre-Iowa Polls with Hillary at 39% and that's what she won with.

someone please tell me if that's incorrect.

[Joe Chi Minh]

17. An insider, eh? Well, well. Which was it?

[SIMPLYB1980]

14. K&R!

[William769]

16. Thanks Skinner.

[femrap]

18. K and R

Thanks.

[barbtries]

19. that's why i recommended

both threads. it is important.

[redqueen]

21. Thank you for trying.

It seems there are those who are STILL determined to try to make hay with "it was RIGGED!" type posts.

Le sigh.

[HughMoran]

23. Thanks Skinner

This is needed at this time...

[Maven]

24. Thanks again.

K/R

[Cameron27]

25. Another kick

[HughMoran]

27. kick

for sanity...

[William769]

28. Kick.

And will continue to kick to keep the stupid ass threads going to the bottom.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

29. The pens they gave the people who took the exit polls might have been rigged somehow

:shrug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. BUMP

~

[killbotfactory]

31. There wasn't vote fraud

There was no "bradley effect"

Women just saw a strong, competent woman candidate for president, overwhelmingly voted for her, and made history.

[HughMoran]

32. kick

[Samantha]

36. Chris Matthews said one-half hour before the polls closed

he was handed a piece of paper that said Obama would win by a blow-out. He said this today. What do you think the discrepancy is between the two networks if one company does the exit polling for all networks? It just doesn't make sense.

[Samantha]

37. Just caught the rerun of Hardball

and Matthews said the exit polling showed Obama ahead by 8 points. Again, I ask, why do CNN and MSNBC have different exit polling if one company services both?