Mathematically, how does Edwards have a chance?

[littlejoe]

With Kerry at 700 delegates, and Edwards at less than 200 delegates, and the fact that there are no "winner take all states, and given that Edwards has to run the table with an average of 75 percent of the vote, coupled with the fact that he is woefully behind in California, Ohio and New york, can anyone explain to me how he has a chance?

[Padraig18]

1. Kerry could die.

He could have a scandal erupt and see his support fall lower than whale dung...

[MAlibdem]

4. ouch

that is sort of a bad reason to stay in, to hope the other guy keels over or some nasty secret about his past is revealed

[Debi]

14. But...

Would anybody notice?

[democratreformed]

2. Nope. I sure can't.

I got over thinking anything could happen during Wes Clark's campaign. What is inevitable WILL happen.

[leyton]

3. He has to close that 500 delegate margin.

It sounds obvious, but I think it's telling: Edwards has gained a lot of momentum from these second-place finishes like in Wisconsin and Iowa. But that's not going to help, because ultimately, he has to have more delegates than Kerry, meaning that over the rest of the primary season he has to at some point come up with 500 delegates out of nowhere.

[King of New Orleans]

5. It ain't easy

in fact, it's pretty darn hard, but let folks vote on March 2 for who they want to vote for, for whatever reason they want to vote for.

[POed_Ex_Repub]

6. I personally think he's running for VP

Win a swing state or two and suddenly you're opinion is popular at the convention. But that's just a theory.

[Bombtrack]

8. The nominee choses the vp

people don't run for vp. Edwards has no interest in just becoming vp for ego's sake. He's running for president because he thinks he has the best chance to beat Bush and the best ideas to make peoples lives better

[POed_Ex_Repub]

15. The nominee will choose the VP he thinks will best help his ticket

How about the guy who wins the swing states hmmmm? And Edwards may say he doesn't want the position, but that's because he's still in the race. NO candidate will say they aren't running to win it all, you don't win as many votes that way.

[Taeger]

39. 2nd place ...

Under some circumstances, the 2nd place finisher can FORCE the first place finisher to accept him as Veep.

The Democrats have been EXTRA good at directing most of their fire at Bush. There is no real bad blood (except Kerry/Dean) to prevent a combined ticket.

Edwards is a Southerner and could swing some red states into the blue corner. Honestly, at this point I think it's down to

* Kerry/Edwards
* Kerry/Clark
* Kerry/Richardson
* Kerry/Bayh

The polling numbers will probably decide which.

[tryanhas]

7. Yes.

Kerry is riding the wave of "ELECTABILITY."

Edwards is also "ELECTABLE," but people have bought into the MYTH that Kerry is.

All Edwards has to do is prove to people that he is more "ELECTABLE," than John Kerry, and Kerry will sink like a rock.

ALSO, THIS IS A QUICK PRIMARY SEASON so momentum is important.

If Edwards steals the momentum from Kerry, Edwards could become the same freight train that Kerry is right now.

IT'S NOT ABOUT MATHEMATICS, IT'S ABOUT MOMENTUM, and Kerry is losing it, no matter who endorses him.

[flpoljunkie]

11. You prove you are "Electable" by winning elections...something Edwards

has not done.

[tryanhas]

18. That's a lie.

You prove you are electable by HAVING THE SAME MEDIA THAT IS BANKROLLING YOUR CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT convince the voting public that you are electable LIKE KERRY IS DOING.

Plenty of people go to Kerry's rallies after he wins and go back home and tell people, "I CAN'T STAND HIM, I JUST VOTED FOR HIM BECAUSE I THOUGHT HE WOULD WIN."

I have heard plenty of those testimonies.

Like I said, just CONVINCE people that you are more electable, and they will drop Kerry, because he doesn't excite them, and they don't like him.

They just hate him less than they hate Bush...

[littlejoe]

22. Whatever.

[tryanhas]

28. Is that the only "FACTUAL" response that you can come up with?

The media is pumping up Kerry's "SUPPOSED/APPARENT ELECTABILITY" and it is well documented that they are bankrolling his run for the nomination.

Even companies that are in the bed with FOX NEWS, so like I said.

Just get the media which is bankrolling your campaign account to convince voters that you are electable, like Kerry is doing...

...duh.

[littlejoe]

36. You haven't given me any facts to respond to!

[littlejoe]

37. Just a couple of WILD scenarios!

[Old and In the Way]

41. Speaking of factual responses, I'd like to see one that supports

your multiple statements of pure conjecture. Where was the media in November? The only stories on Kerry were "What happened to John Kerry?". No, JK was the last person the Republican corporate media wanted to give political oxygen to. But the Democratic voter would have none of it. Kerry will be our nominee because mainstream Democrats see a man who has the resume, leadership skills, and experience to win in November. Your bloviating to the contrary, notwithstanding.

Here a some conjecture for you. Kerry wins NY, California, and Ohio next week. Want to dispute that?

[Debi]

20. So let's stop having elections

That way Edwards won't win any...let's just proclaim Kerry the nominee. Don't let everybody vote..that wouldn't be fair to John Kerry. :eyes:

[littlejoe]

21. It is Edwards who has lost the momentum.

If he were smarter, he would have made a few appearances in Idaho, Utah and Hawaii.

Had he done that, he would have made a respectable showing in those three states and had momentum going into Super Tuesday.

[tryanhas]

29. I agree with this statement, actually!!!

If he were smarter, he would have made a few appearances in Idaho, Utah and Hawaii.

I complained about the same thing at his blog.

In this HYPER-PRIMARY SEASON, momentum is the key.

If Edwards would have SWEPT those three states, he would have stolen a lot of Kerry's thunder and taken the "MOMENTUM" away from him.

I agree with that one statement, and I took the Edwards campaign to task for it, because I thought it was a tactical error.

[Debi]

32. Okay, maybe it was an error...

But he has the debate tonight to swing things back...and we were only talking about 61 delegates total (Didn't DK get some of those?) The did not all go to Kerry.

When lj says no state is all or nothing it means that Kerry can't get all the delegates either.

All Edwards (or DK or Sharpton) have to do is stay close second/third/fourth and Kerry cannot run away with the nomination.

[littlejoe]

38. But he isn't staying close. He's losing by more than 25 percent.

[John_H]

9. He has an 80 % chance of winning what he's duped the more

gullible Americans he doesn't want but was really running for from day one. The rest of us know what that is.

[jpgpenn]

10. you would need *Bush's FUZZY MATH for it to happen!

I'm sure he would be willing to help the senator any way he could!:toast:

[Debi]

12. Keeping Kerry below 2100!!

lj, as long as Edwards/Kucinich/Sharpton get some of the delegates and keep Kerry below the 2100 some he does not have the nomination locked up.

BROKERED CONVENTION - ALL NEW BALLGAME

Tell me, if we go to a brokered convention, how does Kerry woo the people who didn't support him in the beginning to jump on board?

Especially with people with your attitude doing the wooing????

[Padraig18]

16. Don't use logic.

That not fair. Just be silent and fall in line like you're told...:P

[Debi]

19. Cannot stop fists of rage......

:spank: :spank: :spank:

[littlejoe]

25. Don't worry. She isn't.

[littlejoe]

24. Show me your math!

[Miramar]

27. And with a brokered convention

Kucinich could win. Democrats/progressives really like him best. It could happen!!!

[Debi]

30. Great

to see someone supporting their candidate w/o beating someone else down!! You shine a nice light on DK.

[Nicholas_J]

45. Not really

A brokered convention prett much works like a super causus. With the unpledged superdelegates virtually always facing strong public opinion and stronger recomendations from the party leadership to throw in with the candidate with the highest total delegate count at the convention. In order for Edwards to win the required 2162 delegates at this point needecto be decleared winner, from today on he would have to convince wither all of the remaining superdelegates to support him and win 58 percent of the remaining pledged delegates. Or get none of the remaining super delegate and win 82 percent of the remaining pledged delegates. So he must win every remining primary with at least 58 percent or as much as 82 percent, or soething in between these figures. With the polls for the supoer tuesday states all showing large wins for Kerry, this is not likely to happen. Even pulling cloer to Kerry in the Super Tueday states will not so it. He must win them all and with them substantially. Which again, does not appear likely from the current polling information.

[eaprez]

13. Forgive Me If I'm Wrong....

...but wasn't Edwards woefully behind in Iowa and Minnesota or Wisconsin (I forget)...I don't put much stock in the polls at this point.

[Debi]

17. You mean..

The front-runner could stop being the front-runner? Don't tell Howard Dean that!

[eaprez]

23. Exactly!

[littlejoe]

26. You still haven't explained anything.

[Debi]

31. What

was I suppose to expalin?

Other than you don't seem to be here to discuss anything.

All you've done in at least three threads is bait and bite.

Not really a discussion - just a fight.

I'll spell things slowly for you...

B R O K E R E D C O N V E N T I O N.

K E E P K E R R Y U N D E R 2 1 0 0 D E L E G A T E S.

N E W B A L L G A M E.

[tryanhas]

33. I explained something...

...and you just said, "WHATEVER."

Obviously, you want someone to explain what you want to hear.

It's all about momentum in this ACCELERATED PRIMARY SEASON, so if Kerry screws up, or if Edwards steals the momentum from him, Edwards could instantaneously be the one winning states by huge margins.

If that doesn't satisfy you for an answer, then you never will be...

...next thread!

[Debi]

34. I didnt say WHATEVER

that was littlejoe.

Post #22

++++++++++++++

OOPs you weren't talking to me.:silly:

[littlejoe]

40. You haven't "explained" anything. You have only offered some

WILD, loosely thought out scenarios.

[Old and In the Way]

44. Pretty funny thread.

Lots of "hopes", "wishes", and "ifs".

The train left the station this week when Kerry won all 3 states. The only hope to stop Kerry before Super Tuesday was Edwards winning in Idaho, Hawaii, and Utah. That didn't happen.

Democrats know that Kerry is our best candidate to beat Bush.....I suspect that we'll begin to see even bigger winning margins next week because people identify with a winner.

[Taeger]

35. Kucinich and Sharpton

I think that the key would be Kucinich and Sharpton sniping votes from Kerry. Like someone said, Edwards doesn't have to "win" he needs to prevent Kerry from getting a majority of votes.

Realistically, I think the best that Edwards could do at this point is FORCE Kerry to choose him as Veep. Which BTW, isn't a bad ticket considering that Edwards is out of politics if he loses.

I'm just kinda dissapointed with Edwards since he has started talking about "fixing NAFTA" instead of ENDING NAFTA!!!!! Kerry was right, there is no substantial difference in their policies, only the way they present it.

When Indiana votes, I will vote for Kucinich in protest. Kerry is a shoe in for the nomination.

[Nicholas_J]

42. Given the differntial in electoral votes and the results of late polls

Not much of a chance for Edwards. Right now Kerry has about 34 percent of the delegates needed to win, Edwards about 11 percent.

Out ot the total number of available delegates, this gives Kerry about 17 percent of all available delegates, Edwards 5.5 percent.

Thats a large amount of delegates to try to catch up. In order to win the covention outright, that means winning 60 percent of all of the remaining delegates (you need 2162 to win the nomination) There are a total of 4335 delegates totally available, 801 are unpledged super-delegates. Leaving 3534 unpledges delegates in total.


1156 of the pledged delegates have already been awarded in the prior primaries and caucuses. This leaves 2378 unpledged delegates remaining. Edwards now has about 200 delegates in total ( Ithink he has about 201, but this doesnt include tuesdays delegates he earned, i think) Which means that in order to win the nomination, Edwards must win 1961 of the remaining delegates. He has very few super-delegates at this point, something like 16. Kerry has around 120.

Which means Edwards must either win all but 418 of the remaining pledged delegates. That means Edwards must win 82 percent of the remaining unpledged delegates to win with unpledged delegates alone. Or must convince the 580 odd remaining super delegates to support him and win 58 percent of the remaining pledged delegates in the primaries and caucuses in order to become the nominee.

Thoseare the extreme cases, and there could be a number of combinations that could occur, but in order to become the nominee Edwards must win a minimum of 58 percent of the unpledged delegates remining between now and the convention, or as many as 82 percent of them depending on hom many more remaining superdelegates he can pick up. Not impossible, but highly improbable, given the polls for super tuesday. Kerry's lead is comfortable, and Edwards could pull within two or three points of him in all of the super tuesday primaries and caucuses, and Kerry would still be comfortably ahead. Edwards could even win in a few states and Kerry would still be ahead. Edwards could even win big in one of the larger supertuesday states, and Kerry would still be in the lead, unless he took abolutelt no delegates in any of the supertuesday states, which is not likely.

I very much support Edwards, and would very much support him in a run against Bush. But the odds greatly favor Kerry, and even more so when the electabilty factor comes in. Kerry is polling nationally as the only candidate who could beat Bush, and in a number of states in which Bush narrowly won in 2000, Kerry is coming out beating Bush by a large margin in recent polls. Edwards does not beat Bush in those states, and beats Bush along with Kerry in California, and the only other state in which he does better than Kerry against Bush is in his own state of North Carolina, where he is seen as being able to beat Bush in the latest SUSA poll or rather, they are in a dead heat with Edwards beating bush by 3 points in a polls with a 3.9 percent margin of Error, but Bush fairly well beats Kerry in that State. But in other areas of the south, polls do not show Edwards beating Bush at all yet. Neither does Kerry, in the deep south, but Kerry is seen beating Bush in a number of border southern states like Maryland. Virginia, and possibly Florida. THe best democratic strategy will be to trounce Bush in the democratic states, and the states meraning Democrat, and take him down in a number of the industrialized Northern Republican states where there has been a great deal of job loss, and indications that Kerry is pulling very close behind Bush.


DOn't get me wrong.I would strngly support Edwards as the nominee. But the reality of him beating Bush in Republican states outside his regional base is slim (in fact I just collected on a bet that I made in 2000 that Edwards would run for president in 2004, while I was watching him in Congress criticizing the Florida Election results that year).Our very best bet would be Kerry as president and Edwards as VP, as a Kerry win in November would assure Edwards a two term presidency after Two terms of Kerry.

First, Edwards states he is a Washinton outsider, but he is a Senator, which doesnt make that quite so. In fact his only politicval experience is as a Washington insider, this being his first political office. Kerry has some executive experience, having served as Lt Governor of a rather large state, as well as having served as a prosecutor (this also falls under the localities executive arm of government). A frew years as VP in as an executice would greatly inprove his electability over any republican to run against him later.

Also, there is not all that much that separates Edwards political platform from Kerry's, even their stances on trade, regardless of the nuances of the voting record there. Outside of that, all Edwards is running on as a difference is the statement that he is not a Washington Insider, which doesnt ring all that soundly coming from a senator. Not untrue if you want to nuance it by talking about this being his first term, but in fact, not true.

[dweller]

43. Rev. William Preston answers

Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'
You gotta have somethin'
If you wanna be with me
Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'
You gotta have somethin'
If you wanna be with me

I'm not tryin' to be your hero
'Cause that zero is too cold for me, Brrr
I'm not tryin' to be your highness
'Cause that minus is too low to see, yeah

Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'
And I'm not stuffin'
Believe you me
Don't you remember I told ya
I'm a soldier in the war on poverty, yeah
Yes, I am

Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'
You gotta have somethin'
If you wanna be with me
Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'
You gotta have somethin'
If you wanna be with me

You gotta have somethin'
If you wanna be with me
You gotta bring me somethin' Johnny
If you wanna be with me

<horns fade>

dp