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McCain is going to be the nominee because he's the only one who has a rat's ass of a chance

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calteacherguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 07:23 PM
Original message
McCain is going to be the nominee because he's the only one who has a rat's ass of a chance
Edited on Sat Jan-12-08 07:29 PM by calteacherguy
against any of our candidates.

Evidence for my assertion:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Republican presidential field appears to face a tough general election fight in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Saturday.

John McCain was the most favorably viewed of any GOP candidate, a poll found.

According to the survey, both of the Democratic front-runners, Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, hold mostly double-digit -- and statistically identical -- advantages over Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee, drawing greater than 50 percent support in each hypothetical matchup.

The Republican candidate who gives Clinton and Obama the closest race in the new poll is Arizona Sen. John McCain, who is essentially tied with both: He draws the support of 48 percent of those surveyed to Clinton's 50 percent and Obama's 49 percent.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/12/poll.matchups/index.html

Therefore the question becomes, who best to defeat him? The polls don't help us, because they show the race statistically tied between McCain and Clinton, or McCain and Obama.

To answer the question, "who best to defeat him?" we must consider the potential of our eventual nominee to broaden the base of the party, and bring in new voters. Obama wins in this category hands down. He has proven that he attracts more independents and even some Republicans than Clinton, and he is bringing more young people into the process who in Iowa proved that this time around, yes, they actually do and will vote.

We need a candiate who has been consistently against the war, to contrast with McCain's unabashed support of the war. We can't have a candidate, like Clinton, who can be portrayed as supporting the war and then flip-flopping.

We need a uniter, not a divider. Fair or not, Clinton has and will continue to be perceived as more partisan and divisive than McCain. Her negatives are just too high to overcome it. Obama has built his whole campaign on the hope and promise of uniting America behind a common vision.

Finally, Obama's youth would provide a great contrast to McCain's wrinkled visage. America wants change, and change will come from a new generation of Americans inspiring all generations of Americans.

For who best to defeat McCain, the advantage is clearly with Obama.

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GOPBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 07:25 PM
Response to Original message
1. McCain definitely gives them their best chance. So, I hope he loses. n/t
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Bonobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 07:25 PM
Response to Original message
2. 100% right. 100%.
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DesertRat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 07:25 PM
Response to Original message
3. McCain is a warmonger so we clearly need an anti-war candidate. n/t
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Inspired Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
4. JEDNE....but wait....maybe he should! He beats McCain.
From CNN on

The poll also shows that Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona would do best against leading Democrats. He beats Clinton by 2 percentage points (50 percent to 48 percent), ties Obama (48 percent to 48 percent) and loses to Edwards by a smaller margin (8 points) than the other Republican candidates do.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/10/poll.head.to.head/

Yes, the poll is a month old but I believe that we had our clear winner determined by this CNN awhile ago.

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Warren DeMontague Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 07:31 PM
Response to Original message
5. Except the PTB have spent the last year trying to give the GOP base a hard-on over immigration.
Someone figured out that there aren't nearly as many "values voters" as Ralph Reed wants us to think, the hardcore "kill-the-gays, outlaw-the-pill" crowd is going to Fuckabee, the Libertarian/Fiscal wing of the GOP has gone missing, and out here in the west there are millions of red-faced pickup truck driving white guys who apparently just figured out that Mexicans have taken their highly lucrative, less-than-minimum wage produce picking jobs.

McCain may end up being the nominee, but he's got real problems just like the rest of 'em.
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 07:39 PM
Response to Original message
6. I think Huckabee is going to be the Rep nominee...
Those Evangelicals are highly organized and able to galvanize.

The use churches as a platform for leveraging Huckabee, and also for
organizing rides to the polls and GOTV efforts.

He'll take SC and I bet Fla. He'll be born-again AGAIN, after FL, and this
will carry him into Super Tuesday with an advantage.

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Sarah Ibarruri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 07:41 PM
Response to Original message
7. I agree, but he's an old sick man. A president has to be healthy and not too aged. nt
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hayu_lol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Hanging out there, like a red flag in front of an angry bull...
is the sign that reads: McCain was part of the Keating Five.

The man is throughly corrupt.
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Sarah Ibarruri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. Oh no doubt! But McCain has a history of sacrificing even his own.....
The freak also has no self-respect. Look what Bush did to appeal to the racist vote: said his daughter was black (she was Bangladeshi, and so F what), and saying he had had a daughter with a black woman (so F what). All these things appealed to the racist Republicans, and that's how he defeated McCain After all that, McCain was soon hugging and crying for Bush and loving him up. If someone so much as mentioned my daughter's name, I'd call him a sociopathic sh*thead in public. McCain is a piece of garbage that will ________ Bush's ___________ to gain his favor and get elected president. No self-respect at all and no respect for his own family.

Here's a really interesting post explaining all that:

"What Bush did to McCain in the 2000 S. C. primary"


FACT SHEET:

Bush Waged Nasty Smear Campaign Against McCain in 2000
Bush Supporters Called McCain “The Fag Candidate.” In South Carolina, Bush supporters circulated church fliers that labeled McCain “the fag candidate.” Columnist Frank Rich noted that the fliers were distributed “even as Bush subtly reinforced that message by indicating he wouldn’t hire openly gay people for his administration.”

McCain Slurs Included Illegitimate Children, Homosexuality And A Drug-Addict Wife.
Among the rumors circulated against McCain in 2000 in South Carolina was that his adopted Bangladeshi daughter was actually black, that McCain was both gay and cheated on his wife, and that his wife Cindy was a drug addict.”

Bush Campaign Used Code Words to Question McCain’s Temper.
“A smear campaign of the ugliest sort is now coursing through the contest for the presidency in 2000. Using the code word "temper," a group of Senate Republicans, and at least some outriders of the George W. Bush campaign, are spreading the word that John McCain is unstable. The subtext, also suggested in this whispering campaign, is that he returned from 5 1/2 years as a POW in North Vietnam with a loose screw. And it is bruited about that he shouldn't be entrusted with nuclear weapons.”

Bush Supporters Questioned McCain’s Sanity.
“Some of George W. Bush's supporters have questioned Republican presidential candidate John McCain's fitness for the White House, suggesting that his five years as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam drove him insane at the time.”

Bush Supporters Spread Racist Rumors About McCain’s Daughter.
Bush supporters in South Carolina made race-baiting phone calls saying that McCain had a “black child.” The McCains’ daughter, Bridget, was adopted from Mother Teresa’s orphanage in Bangladesh. In August 2000, columnist Maureen Dowd wrote that the McCains “are still seething about Bush supporters in South Carolina spreading word of their dark-skinned adopted daughter.”

Rove Suggests Former POW McCain Committed Treason and Fathered Child With Black Prostitute.
In 2000, McCain operatives in SC accused Rove of spreading rumors against McCain, such as “suggestions that McCain had committed treason while a prisoner of war, and had fathered a child by a black prostitute,” according to the New Yorker.

After Rove Denied Role In McCain Whisper Campaign, Reporters Concluded He Was Behind It.
A December 1999 Dallas Morning News linked Rove to a series of campaign dirty tricks, including his College Republican efforts, allegedly starting a whisper campaign about Ann Richard being too gay-friendly, spreading stories about Jim Hightower’s involvement in a kickback scheme and leaking the educational history of Lena Guerrero. The article also outlined current dirty tricks and whisper campaigns against McCain in South Carolina, including that “McCain may be unstable as a result of being tortured while a prisoner of war in North Vietnam.” (DMN, 12/2/99) After the article was published, Rove blasted Slater in the Manchester, NH airport, “nose to nose” according to one witness, with Rove claiming Slater had “harmed his reputation,” Slater later noted. But according to one witness, “What was interesting then is that everyone on the campaign charter concluded that Rove was responsible for rumors about McCain.”

Rove Was In Close Touch With McConnell, McCain-Feingold’s Chief Opponent.
Senior White House adviser Karl Rove was in close contact with Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) during McConnell’s effort to fight the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Bill in the U.S. Senate. According to Newsweek, though Rove and Bush have publicly kept their distance from McConnell on the issue, “sources tell Newsweek that Rove is, in fact, in close touch with McConnell as GOP experts study the bill for hidden land mines.”

Bush Campaign Accused of Using Push Polls Against McCain.
College of Charleston student Suzette Latsko said she received a telephone call from a woman who identified herself as an employee of Voter/Consumer Research, and that the caller misrepresented McCain’s positions and asked if Latsko knew McCain had been reprimanded for interfering with federal regulators in the savings and loan scandal. Voter/Consumer Research is listed as a polling contractor on Bush’s Federal Election Commission filings; the Bush campaign has paid Voter/Consumer Research $93,000 through December 31, 1999. Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer denied the call was a push poll, but said it was important that the Republican Party remember McCain’s role in the S&L crisis.

Bush Campaign Acknowledged Making Phone Calls.
Tucker Eskew, Bush’s South Carolina spokesman, acknowledged the Bush campaign made such calls, but claimed they were not “push polls.” Eskew added, “Show me a baseless comment in those questions.”

Bush Used Fringe Veterans Group to Attack McCain as “Manchurian Candidate.”
“In the case of Ted Sampley, the same guy who did Bush's dirty work in going after Sen. John McCain in the 2000 Republican primaries is doing the job against Kerry this year. Sampley dared compare McCain, who spent five years as a Vietnam POW, with ‘the Manchurian Candidate.’”

Sampley Called McCain a “Coward” and a Traitor.
“Sampley… accused McCain of being a weak-minded coward who had escaped death by collaborating with the enemy. Sampley claimed that McCain had first been compromised by the Vietnamese, then recruited by the Soviets.”

http://www.bartcopnation.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=522
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
9. McCain will be hard to beat
Especially if Bush moves forward with this Iraq pact and manages to keep the lid on the country next year. Most regular people aren't all that upset with him for betraying John Kerry, they still see him as the straight shooter. I think he'll be their candidate too. He's got a record fighting corporate corruption, supporting campaign finance reform, the environment, education. He'll be hard to beat unless he has a macaca moment at a debate.
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patrice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 08:10 PM
Response to Original message
10. I've lived with Red staters all of my life. They would look at McCain and Obama
and see patriotism and strength tested under brutal conditions, wisdom derived from experience compared to a nice young man who hasn't yet demonstrated that there is very much there, besides a good voice and skill at preaching.
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femmocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 08:18 PM
Response to Original message
11. I have predicted McCain all along. It's his "turn" and...
he didn't spend 7 years wiping *'s butt for nuthin'.
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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 08:18 PM
Response to Original message
12. He was practically revivified by the media, in my eyes. Anyone else would have been DOA
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 08:19 PM
Response to Original message
13. I'm not so sure he'll be the nominee...
And even if he is, he's selling himself as Bush II on Iraq, and that'll kill him.
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Meldread Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 08:31 PM
Response to Original message
15. I agree with you and Katzenkavalier.
As Katzenkavalier said he's selling himself as Bush II on the War in Iraq. He's basically saying, "Vote for me, I'll continue doing everything Bush is doing!" Obama is the best candidate to contrast McCain.
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neoblues Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 08:41 PM
Response to Original message
16. If it is McCain...
whoever elects him'd better pick a healthy, considerably younger running mate (VP) for when McCain keels over due to either a massive coronary (relax Mr. McCain, that's coronary, not coronation) or stroke. He's just already so old and the office will turn him to something akin to a mummy in a month.

Any guesses who might be McCain's Vice-Presidential choice? I suspect he can't suppress his gag reflex at the rest of the Republican contenders (much as most of us probably feel toward that whole bunch). Still, it's gotta be on the minds of any Repubs considering McCain.
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old guy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 08:49 PM
Response to Original message
17. I think McCain will be the nominee, but by default
The whole repub field is so pathetic that he almost looks good. Once people start to really focus on him, I believe his warts will start to show and he carries a lot of * baggage that Indies will find hard to overlook. Just saying.
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OmahaBlueDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 08:52 PM
Response to Original message
18. "Rush to Quality" Syndrome
The Republican primaries are like watching a sinking stck market. When the stock market starts to tank, high-flyers get dumped and people start buying stocks in things like Gillette and Johnson & Johnson; they're solid, they've been around, they're not glamorous, but they're reliable.

Huckabee is beloved of social conservatives, but appears unelectable in a nationwide race (I have my doubts on this, but it's conventional wisdom at this point). Romney and 9u11ani won't bring social conservatives (read: evangelicals) to the polls. Thompson is toast. That leaves 'ol reliable Johnny.
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mrmx9 Donating Member (210 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 10:13 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. These polls won't be meaningful until we have our final two!
I don't think you can read too much into these polls now - especially if McCain or Huckabee get the nomination and the Dems pick Clinton.

People on this forum may sneer at Huckabee but he has a folksy style, talks a lot of populist rhetoric and may well come across better in debates (i.e. many Americans may think he more like them) if its a match up with him and Hillary. The Republicans weren't backing Huckabee - until they noticed he existed. indeed many people being polled now nationally still don't know who he is!
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OmahaBlueDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 11:27 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. I think Dems are fools not to take Huck seriously
Edited on Sat Jan-12-08 11:29 PM by OmahaBlueDog
1) You're right, he has a folksy style and a life story similar to Bill Clinton's
2) Evangelicals are driving the bus in the Republican Party -- that was the Iowa Caucus lesson. Huckabee should do exceptionally well in the South (except Florida, which is a Northern state south of I-4, for all practical purposes), and in the "Heartland" (Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, SoDak, NoDak)
3) Evangelicals show up and vote. Politically, they are the best organized group in the nation, bar none. They've learned everything they know from fighting Roe v. Wade for 35 years.

OTOH, my sense is that America currently feels once bitten/twice shy about evangelical Presidents. Also, Huck scares the corporatists just about as much as John Edwards does, but for different reasons.

This op-ed piece puts it better than I do:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/huckabees_rebellion.html
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