http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/29/politics/campaign/29HOUS.htmlDemocrats Scale Back Ambitions for House
By CARL HULSE
Published: February 29, 2004
ASHINGTON, Feb. 28 — Strategists, independent analysts and House members of both parties say that after a decade out of power, Democrats are unlikely to reclaim control of the House in November.
Many Democrats now concede that their immediate goal is far less ambitious: to narrow the divide so they have a better chance of recapturing the House in 2006.
"Do I think we are going to take it back? No," said Representative Rahm Emanuel, Democrat of Illinois. "But I think we are setting it up not to slide backward, but to move forward."
Democrats said they were heartened that President Bush had found himself on the defensive recently, and predicted that the record deficit compiled under Republican control could play to their benefit. But Democrats and others cited significant factors working against them, including recruiting failures, fund-raising difficulties and redistricting.
One major reason Democrats are pessimistic about taking back the House can be found in Texas. In redrawing the boundaries of Congressional districts last year in favor of Republicans, the Texas Legislature built a fire wall against potential losses elsewhere in the country. The formerly Democratic-dominated House delegation from Texas is now evenly divided, with 16 members of each party, and Republicans say they hope to end up with a minimum of 20 seats. That number, they say, would better reflect the state's political bent.