Ohio Poll: This time, seems like it’s all KERRY

[eaprez]

http://www.columbusdispatch.com/news-story.php?story=dispatch/2004/02/29/20040229-A1-01.html
PRESIDENTIAL POLL | THE OHIO DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
This time, seems like it’s all KERRY
Early this year, Ohio Democrats backed Dean and thought Bush was a shoo-in _ but a lot has changed
Sunday, February 29, 2004
Darrel Rowland
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
In January, Howard Dean was the favorite in Ohio, backed by 27 percent of those surveyed by The Dispatch. He has since suspended his campaign.

lthough his main rival is noted for last-minute comebacks, Sen. John Kerry’s lead in Ohio’s Democratic presidential primary appears insurmountable.

The Massachusetts senator has rolled up more than a 2-1 advantage over Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina in this crucial Super Tuesday state, a new Dispatch Poll shows.

Perhaps the most striking result of the mail survey of 3,793 Ohio Democrats is a newfound confidence that President Bush can be ousted from the White House.

In a similar Dispatch Poll at the beginning of the year, 70 percent of Buckeye State Democrats said Bush’s re-election was at least somewhat likely regardless of who won their party’s nomination. Now, after several weeks of Bush-bashing during the early primaries, only 47 percent say he will get a second term.

"I think the president can only fool people for so long. Too many things are going wrong," said poll participant Tom Wick, a retired teacher and lifelong Democrat from the Cincinnati suburb of Wyoming.

"When Bush first got elected, I first thought, well, at least the budget will get balanced and we won’t have too many government programs. Now we’ve got an unbalanced budget and a Department of Homeland Security."

New Concord resident Bonnie Thompson, 55, said even her staunch Republican husband, Paul, has not been impressed with Bush’s performance.

"I do think that the Democrats have a better chance this time than any time in my past recollection," said the retired portableload inspector for the State Highway Patrol. "People are very upset with how Bush has handled the last four years."

Thompson was typical of many poll respondents interviewed: She likes Edwards but expects Kerry to take the nomination.

If Edwards is to do better than expected in Ohio, he likely will have to make inroads among independents who obtain a Democratic ballot and crossover voters.

The mail poll, conducted Feb. 19 through Friday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Almost one out of every three Democrats who got a poll mailed it back, a high return rate.

Edwards has defied polls before. Less than two weeks ago, he came from far off the pace to finish a mere 6 percentage points behind Kerry in the Wisconsin primary. Edwards also was back in the pack until the final days before winding up a surprising second in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 19.

However, Edwards was able to focus his campaign on both of those races because they were the only contests in the nation on those days. In contrast, Super Tuesday consists of a 10-state, coast-to-coast battlefield.

Ohio Democrats still want Edwards on the ticket this year. He is far and away the leading favorite to become Kerry’s running mate, getting more support than six other vice presidential possibilities combined.

Despite several campaign stops by Edwards at Ohio black churches and his blaming unfair trade agreements for the state’s job losses, it is Kerry who is faring better among black respondents and those in union households than with white nonunion members.

Michael P. Wright, a 28-year-old plumber from Twinsburg, said he is "thrilled" about the chance of Kerry following in the footsteps of President Kennedy, another Navy veteran from Massachusetts.

"This will be the second time we have a JFK running for office," Wright said. "I like the guy. He seems to make the most sense."

Kerry’s service in Vietnam is an attraction for Ray W. Becker, 73, a Korean War veteran and former machine-shop foreman from Minerva.

"Bush, he never served. He was being paid (by the National Guard) for not even being there," Becker said.

He prefers Kerry over other Democrats because "he seems like he’s down to earth, wants to help the working class."

But Wick, the retired teacher, said Edwards is more electable, partly because as a trial lawyer he is able to think quickly on his feet and partly because of geography.

"Being from the South, it really helps," Wick said. "The last president we had was from the South. People view Kerry as this eastern, elitist guy. He comes off as part of the northeastern snobbery."

Judi Cincione, 70, of Grandview Heights, also plans to vote for Edwards.

"I like the fact that he defends the rights of the individual versus the large corporations," the former secretary said. "I’ve just heard his speeches and read a little about him. I think it’s sincere because he couldn’t have been the trial lawyer that he was without it. He really came out for the individual who was injured."

No other candidate comes within shouting distance of Kerry and Edwards in the poll. The results for the also-rans:

• U.S. Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Cleveland, 5 percent.

• Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (who topped the Dispatch Poll in January with 27 percent), 3 percent.

• Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark and Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, 2 percent each.

• Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Rev. Al Sharpton and perennial candidate Lyndon LaRouche Jr., less than 1 percent each.

The poll was prepared before Gephardt dropped out and Sharpton was disqualified for insufficient signatures.

Dispatch reporters Jon Craig, Alan Johnson, Lee Leonard and Jeffrey Sheban contributed to this story.