If Obama Wins By 15+ Points

[THUNDER HANDS]

How does that effect the delegate counts in South Carolina? How much do you have to win by in order to get a substantial number of delegates over your opponent? Is there a magic number you have to hit, like 50% or 45% or something?

I know when Obama won Iowa by 9 points over Hillary, he only got 2 more delegates than her. And when she won New Hampshire by 3 points he got the same number of delegates (IIRC) and when she won Nevada by 6 points he actually got one more (or one less, I'm still not sure).

So if Obama wins big (considering he's the only one of the three who has the potential to) how will that impact the delegate count in that state?

If he wins by 15, would he get five or six more delegates? Or only one or two? Anyone know?

[thoughtcrime1984]

1. I believe delegates come from each precinct

He could win every precinct but one by one vote, lose the other by a 1,000 votes, thus losing the state's popular vote, but could win nearly all of the delgates. Please, someone correct me if that is wrong....

[suston96]

2. I understand that in all three states the delegates have not been allocated .....

....and all we have now are estimates. As to South Carolina, try this:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/SC.html

Details of the Nominating Process

Democrats
January 26, 2008 Proportional primary (Open) 54 delegates at stake

Based on the results of the Jan. 26 primary, 45 of the state's 54 delegates are allocated proportionally to presidential candidates. Of those, 29 are allocated based on the vote in each of the state's six Congressional districts, and 16 are allocated based on the statewide vote. At the state convention on May 3, the remaining eight unpledged delegates are selected.

[kevsand]

4. Nearly all states follow that model in Democratic primaries.

It almost always involves that same mix of proportionally selected delegates and a smaller number of uncommitted at-large delegates (the so called "super-delegates," usually elected officials and other party leaders).

Some states, particularly those with caucuses, actually select delegates in each precinct to attend county or district caucuses, where delegates to a state convention are selected. Delegates to the national convention are then selected by the state convention.

In Illinois, and as far as I know in SC and most other states with actual primary elections, the delegates to the national convention are elected directly from within each congressional district. It was this division by congressional district that gave Obama the apparent majority of delegates in Nevada.

[aquart]

5. But Nevada is a caucus state.

Why are you using it as an example of a primary voting state?

[kevsand]

8. I'm not.

I'm using it to illustrate the effect of assigning delegates by congresional district.

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. Obama will be damn lucky to win, period

If he wins by 3% it will be a Hillary victory.

[Joe the Revelator]

6. Bullshit on all counts

A wins a win, as long as you walk away with more delegates then your opponents.

[aquart]

7. Zogby has him at 41% with Hillary at 26% with 14% undecided.

Even if all the undecided go to Hillary, Obama still wins. But all the undecided never break entirely for one candidate.