Occam Bandage's honest analysis. - Democratic Underground

Occam Bandage

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Thu Jan-31-08 10:53 PM
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Occam Bandage's honest analysis.

Edited on Thu Jan-31-08 10:56 PM by Occam Bandage

First and foremost, the Democrats won. Howard Dean won. The DNC won. This debate was a world apart from the one last night. We were smarter, we were sharper, we had better answers, better questions, and better policies. Rather than worry about who was more ideologically "pure" on taxes and conservatism, we talked about who had the better plans.

Healthcare: A great twenty minutes, in which both candidates defended what are very strong, very policy-driven positions. Both scored points on the other; Clinton pounded home the "universal" aspect of her plan, while Obama recouped some of that ground by talking about enforcement. He didn't make that distinction quite clear enough from where I was sitting, though; I think Clinton edged him. Advantage Clinton.

Immigration: Obama tries to raise his support among Latinos; Clinton tries to appeal to the xenophobes. Obama starts off strong, but stumbles through a flip-flop attack and launches an ill-conceived sideswipe. Clinton fires back and fires back hard by reminding the audience that she was working on the issue before he even reached the Senate. Obama had this one in the bag, but ended by tossing her a hanger. A big advantage to Clinton on this one.

Electability: Both Obama and Clinton attempted to attack the Republicans. Clinton's responses were meandering and dull; Obama's were sharp and witty. He embarrassed Romney, and gave more than a few flashes of how he'd attack McCain. Clinton chose not to bare her teeth, and wisely--she doesn't want to pump up her negative image, especially after SC. Obama, on the other hand, chooses to show how he can fight. Both did the smart thing--but Obama helped his image, while Clinton was just avoiding damage to hers. I think Obama scored a few points.

Iraq: Obama frankly dominated this issue. He was on-point; Clinton evaded and dodged, going from confusing to frankly unbelievable. Obama draws clear distinctions between himself and the Republicans, and between himself and Clinton. Clinton doesn't say much of anything--but this is her weak issue, so she really can't. Advantage Obama, but he always wins this.

Taxes: Both present strong defenses of raising taxes. Thank God. I give both of them points.

Style: Obama namedropped TK like Republicans do Reagan. I think that's a good strategy, personally, given how his numbers shot up after TK's endorsement. Clinton gets a point for pounding on her ability to fight; Obama for pounding his ability to bring in new voters. Both are qualities that will serve us well November. More points to both. I've heard Clinton's "takes a Clinton to clean up after a Bush" line before, but it remains a clever nullifier of the "dynasty" claim, point to her for that.

Media/Bill: Obama gets a question on sex and violence, and knocks it out of the park--but it was an easy pitch. Obama stays with his theme of responsible progressivism, and it's served him very well so far. Clinton gets a question on Bill, and meanders about again. Her strategy on bad questions seriously seems to be to talk in empty circles until the audience can no longer follow the question-answer line. And I have to say, it is an admirable form of deflection, especially when she's trying to present herself as policy-minded. Obama got an easier question than Hillary, and so was able to give a better answer. Tough to grade this one.

Final call: Obama edges Clinton to win this debate. However, I think he needed more than an edge; he's going into Super Tuesday with the momentum but with a several-point deficit. Much as in the early days of the race, the junior Senator from Illinois needed to draw sharp distinctions between himself and the junior Senator from New York. As such, I think that while Obama scored a minor tactical victory tonight, Clinton scored a minor strategic victory.