Gotta admit.. the past 6 days have been a lot of fun for Obama supporters....

[scheming daemons]

Hillary needed Feb 5th to be here yesterday.... by Tuesday, the momentum will have pushed Obama past her.

[joshcryer]

1. Unlikely.

Hopefully he'll drop out after Super Tuesday gives him a 500 delegate deficit.

[scheming daemons]

4. I'll bet you a paycheck that the difference in delegates...

..after tuesday is greater than 200.

Remember... there are NO winner-take-all states on Tuesday. The delegate split on that night will be something like 52-48. It's pretty much a mathematical certainty.

[joshcryer]

7. How much is your paycheck?

I usually keep bets to $50 or so. :P

Also, 500 might be a bit too presumptive, given money is being involved here. ;)

[scheming daemons]

9. Much larger than $50.....

lol....

I've been pretty successful, despite our current WH occupant.

Right now the delegates are 63 for Obama, 48 for Hillary.

I'm predicting that after Tuesday, it will be:

Obama 896
Clinton 893

Give or take 100 delegates either direction.

It is almost mathematically impossible for EITHER candidate to have a 500-delegate lead after tuesday. The lead, for whichever candidate, will be less than 200.

...and the longer this race goes on, the better for Obama... because it cuts into the "air of inevitability" that Hillary had.


You want to be $50, I'm ok with that.... but with this caveat: The loser of the bet donates $50 to the other person's candidate.
;-)

[joshcryer]

11. Ahh, I'm chickenshit.

You shouldn't have shown me the math. I probably would've done it myself, but there's no way she gets 1100 votes! :)

Should still be fun nevertheless.

[Big Blue Marble]

15. Drop out when he is collecting a million dollars a day.

Have you seen his crowds? Have you seen the surge in the polls?

He will do very well on Tuesday. She may win more delegates not nearly enough to win.

This will be going on lots longer than Tuesday.

[andyrowe]

2. Don't get me too excited.

The news for us has been unbelievably great this week.

[Seeker30]

3. Fun for ya for her to get 50% of the votes in FL?

Oh, but it didnt count :rofl:

[dkf]

5. Even my politically clueless best friend knew it didn't count

He wanted to know how the primaries worked, how delegates were allocated etc.

The only thing he knew was that Florida didn't have any delegates. He had no idea why, but he knew that much.

[scheming daemons]

6. Yeah....

Obama has "won" 5 of the past 6 news cycles.

Florida didn't give Hillary a single delegate.... and after tuesday, it will be something like 800-850 total delegates for each of them.

Wednesday morning, you are going to wake up and realize that this thing is just getting started... they'll be almost dead even in delegates.

[joshcryer]

8. Do you know how many delegates are in contention?

[scheming daemons]

10. About 1600 or so.....

....and none of the 22 states are winner-take-all. They will each get some delegates in each state.

Hillary might win California, but she'll only get about 230 of the 430 or so delegates.

[joshcryer]

12. Gotcha. I can see the 200 spread in this case, then.

Though there are some states where she continues to poll above 50%.

[GoldieAZ49]

14. 2025 delegates available

and there are many superdelegates up for grabs still...the endorsement campaign!

Here is a site with all the numbers and lots of info

2008 Democratic Convention Watch

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegates-who-havent-endorsed.html

[Big Blue Marble]

13. It is one of those times that makes politics so exciting.

I felt the shift on Friday before the SC primary.

It had been building during the week with the Bad News Bill and stuff.

Then intuitively I felt the mo change to Obama. People were starting to really get it.

GoBama


Yes we can!!!

[GoldieAZ49]

16. It is an exciting time for our country!!!

I have loved every minute of it, the ups and the downs

what a ride this year is going to be!!!

[Big Blue Marble]

17. I love it too.

You are right. It is such an wonderful time for our country.

At last, we are coming out of the dark ages of Bush world.

It has been a place, we were not sure we would ever escape.

And look at him the other night. He did not seem nearly as scary as he used to be.


And an exciting time for political junkies. What a ride we have this last month.

Can you believe that four weeks ago tonight was the Iowa caucuses?

An unbelievable lot of politics have happened since then with lots more to go.

[GoldieAZ49]

18. I hope this year is one for the history books

on every level that we can see right now, and for the change it brings about that we can only dimly imagine at this point!

[Big Blue Marble]

19. Just knowing that it is either a African American or woman

is going to head our ticket just astounds me and that person is very likely to be president is fantastic.

Of course I want that person to be Obama. :bounce:

That is history itself. The way he has run his campaign. The way he has been
able to take the process to her. She was the inevitable candidate. It has been amazing to watch.

If he wins the nomination, there is no doubt they will be talking about this election 50 years from now.

And we are taking part. How exciting is that?

[cooolandrew]

20. If Barack can turn this around so well, imagine what he can do for the world.WTG BARACK.

If he can change the minds of 300 million peole he change tranlate that to 6 billion people worldwide.

[my3boyz]

21. It feels good now but

I'm always waiting for the other shoe to drop. Things can change at the drop of the hat when dealiing with politics. A week seems like an eternity since this election started.............