Illinois Primary: Obama up 60-24 over HRC

[book_worm]

No real surprise since this is Obama's homestate.

www.rasmussenreports.com

[MADem]

He'd better get a decisve win there. I mean, really--he reps them. NT

[book_worm]

2. He's doing better in IL than some NY polls indicate that HRC will do there.

so does that go the same for your candidate?

[Barack_America]

3. Exactly what I was just looking at.

It's true and it matters not only symbolically, but in terms of delegate advantage as well.

If Obama can keep Hillary below 60% in many NY districts, they will essentially split those delegates. And if Obama can keep his numbers above 60% in Illinois...that could just decide the nomination right there.

[MADem]

4. I beg your pardon?

I make a simple comment, and you "ascribe" motive to it.

I'm not watching the polls, simply commenting on the observations of others.

There are a lot of hyper-fucking-sensitive people up in here.

[Lochloosa]

12. hyper-fucking-sensitive people ?

I hadn't noticed.

[book_worm]

13. "I mean really--he represents them" so that does go for your candidate too, right?

[Sir Jeffrey]

1. If he gets above 59% he gets bonus delegates IIRC nt

[NJSecularist]

5. If he can get 130 of the 185 delegates

Then he will effectively eliminate any delegate difference from Hillary's win in New York.

He needs to win Illinois by a HUGE margin.

[Bitwit1234]

6. Heck she beats him by more than that in New York..

[NJSecularist]

7. What polls have you been looking at?

The latest poll shows Hillary is beating Obama 54-38 in NY.

60-24 = 36
54-38= 16

Obama's margin is almost double hers.

[davsand]

8. I wonder what part of the state that sample came out of.

In the Senate Primary Obama did VERY well in metro areas and not so well downstate. There were isolated counties that he carried, but mostly his support in that primary was Chicago, the collar counties and university voters. That changed in the General, of course, but I'm wondering if that will be a pattern in this primary as well.

Over all, I think Illinois is one of those states that the rural areas tend to vote conservative (read as Republican, mostly, and conservative Dems when you can find any.) I do know that there have been several counties downstate that have endorsed Obama already--maybe that will play a role, I dunno.

If word of mouth or anecdotal means anything to you all, I will tell you that I have spoken to a lot of people who are backing Obama and very few that support Hillary. I have to confess, however, that Senator Obama has been generous with is time here in my area since his election. That carries a lot of weight with people no matter who it is.

FWIW, I know a lady from NY who adores Senator Clinton. She reports that she has had multiple contacts with the Clinton offices and they are allays helpful and supportive. I suspect she will be a Clinton voter in that NY Primary...

Regards!


Laura

[mopinko]

9. one point to be made here, also-

obama has done exactly zero campaigning here. they have a couple of offices, but mostly people come in and call other states.
instead of leaning on local parties to campaign for him, they are coming to him, asking is it ok to slap his picture on their mail pieces. the only way to get a bumpersticker is on the website.
so, those numbers are just pure love.

[book_worm]

15. that's true.

[Monty__]

10. My vote in IL will still go to Edwards

I don't think Obama wins by 36% in IL though

[featherman]

11. Obama needs better than 60-40 in IL IMO

I think he'll get it but let's wait and see. One to keep and eye on on Tuesday

[book_worm]

14. kick

[THUNDER HANDS]

16. it's also Clinton's home state too

lest anyone forget the Chicago Cubs hat she donned before her Yankees one.

[book_worm]

17. I forgot that, HRC was born in IL and grew up there.