Super Tuesday Delegate math: A Primer

[Perky]

EVERYONE should keep this in mind before overly prognosticating future results five John Edwards withdrawal from the race,

The rules for apportionment of Delegates are based on percentage of vote at the Congressional District level


1. If you do not get 15% in CD you get nothing (both candidate will meet this threshold each and every time)
2. If you get between 15% and 40% you get a pro-rata portion (that is going to be very rare in a two person race)
3. If two candidates get over 40% they split the delegates evenly (This is going to happen nearly all the time)
4. If you get more than 59% you get bonus Delegates. (my suspicion is that Obama has a leg up here in Urban areas and (as evidenced by SC) areas of the deep south)

Not all districts have the same number of delegates within the state. Apparently the DNC allots according to Dem votes in the last presidential election. The state then allots to the Congressional Districts based on how blue the district went in the last election. It thus stands to reason that urban districts are going to have slightly greater quantities with in a state when compared to non-urban. So if both Obama and Clinton get over 40%, he would stand to get the extra delegate if the total quantity of delegates is an odd number.... Otherwise they are likely to split the delegates nearly every time.


In a schema like this it seems inevitable that we are going to wind up nearly tied on voted Delegates and the real battle to decide the nomination is going to come down to Four things:

A. Super Delegates
B. The seating of the Michigan Delegation
C. The seating of the Florida Delegation
D. The Edwards Delegates


In the case of Florida and Michigan. they are currently unseated. Given the methodology of our madness, the number needed for nomination is Total Delegates (less FL/MI) divide by 2 + 1.

It is entirely possible that Obama could win a majority if you do not count Michigan and FLorida. It is entirely possible that Clinton could win a majority if they are seated.

The thing that irks me about this is that State election boards post results according to county and you can drill into the precinct level...but you don't know what Congressional district any given precinct falls into. So in the sase of Michigan and Florida actual delegate counts per candidate are only raw estimates.

That is the nightmare scenario. In that instance, Obama would have control over the rules committee.

Unless someone falters badly, .....That is what it is going to come down to.

Here are links to the best data I have found on delegates per state


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D.phtml


Questions/Comments?

[lurky]

1. Could you explain what you mean about the rules

committee? Thanks!

I am hoping that someone wins enough of a majority that MI and FL are not factors. It's looking less and less likely, though. If MI and FL make the difference, it could be really damaging to whoever wins out. :(

[Perky]

2. The candidate with the most delegates would get to decide who sits on the rules committee

[lurky]

3. Ahhh, so they decide who decides who gets to vote.

:think:

In that situation, do you think HRC would fight? She could hurt him badly if she did that. What a terrible way to win for either of them.

[george_maniakes]

4. I think if its looking like those delegates will be deciders...

have a REAL primary in florida and michigan where both candidates are participating.

[lurky]

5. Do over? I could get behind that.

Sounds like the fairest solution for everyone. How practical is it?

[Perky]

7. $5 million for a primary

kind of tough to do

[Perky]

I was wrong it ws $8 Million

for FLorida. The DNC would pay that. They need what money they have for GOTV effors

[Perky]

8. I was wrong it ws $8 Million

for FLorida. The DNC would pay that. They need what money they have for GOTV effors

[kelligesq]

6. Ahem - JOHN EDWARDS IS BACK IN - VOTE EDWARDS FEB 5

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4337743&mesg_id=4337871

[Perky]

9. He has suspended his campaign correct?

He withdrew right?