Obama supporters: I'm getting nervous

[abburdlen]

The news this week has been fantastic for Obama. The momentum in the polls is incredible, there have been some great endorsements donations are setting records and the debate last night isn't going to change the direction the race is going. Everything it seems is looking up for Obama.

Just like it did right after Iowa.

My fear is that the narrative is becoming "Obama is going to win on Super Tuesday" when the truth is the best case scenario is that he'll match Clinton delegate count next week.
He's doing great and in the end I think he'll prevail but let's not kid ourselves, he's still the fighting an uphill battle.

[Midlodemocrat]

1. Thank you for your concern.

Duly noted.

[Joe the Revelator]

2. I don't really think anyone, aside from us obsessive expect Obama to win on Tuesday

They just know that they like him and want to vote for him.


Plus close wins won't help Hillary anymore. She needs decisive wins to get some distance with delegates.

Just be wary of tears on her hallmark channel appearance. :)

[cooolandrew]

26. " Cos this train keeps on riding riding on through..."

[Barack_America]

3. Of course you're nervous, Super Tuesday is coming up.

Take a deep breath and have a drink.

[abburdlen]

29. I plan on it!

[Thrill]

4. No chance of that happening.....She is far and away still the front runner

And I'm sure Barack supporters like that

[zanne]

5. I live in NH. I know what you mean.

My personal opinion is that, when the polls showed him ten points ahead, alot of Obama supporters decided they didn't need to go out and vote; that it was in the bag. Of course, I could be wrong.

[lurky]

21. Especially young people/college students?

I could see that.

[zanne]

28. I don't know about that.

I was an Obama volunteer and at the Manchester headquarters, I was the only oldie there. The rest were college kids or barely graduated-from-college kids. (They were dynamos.) It gave the campaign a special kind of energy. I don't know about the voting, though. I know that Hillary got a huge chunk of the older woman's vote.

[lurky]

32. I was just speculating, so you could be right.

I'm sure both campaigns have people analyzing the data to find out what was happening.

How did you like volunteering? Sounds like you had fun (except for watching the returns).

[zanne]

33. I fell in love with volunteering.

I'd do it again in a heartbeat. I never thought I could do things like give talks to groups of people I didn't know, or use persuasion when I called people on the phone. It was an eye opener for me. And being a volunteer is sweet because you're treated like gold!

[jkshaw]

6. Too true

I can see voters not bothering to go out to what could certainly be very crowded polling places, thinking Obama was a done deal without them.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. This feels like it did prior to Iowa.

Clinton still held the lead in most polls, but Obama was gaining on her. People still thought Clinton would win, but the good buzz about Obama pushed him over the top. This in no way feels like New Hampshire, because Obama held the lead there and wasn't nearly as aggresive as he should have been. Obama is within striking distance of Hillary, with the numbers getting closer and closer each day. I think we're in for a great day Tuesday.

[grantcart]

27. check this out Obama is (in all but one case) out performing polls

4-7 point on average

[goldcanyonaz]

8. We're all nervous. It's only normal when we are so into a candidate and want them to win.

:hug:

[abburdlen]

19. Thanks!

I truly appreciate those that remember we're more alike than we are different.

Here's to a Democratic victory in November!
:toast:

[george_maniakes]

9. Never forget, obama is playing catch-up...no matter how many endorsements, or...

how many polls come out, clinton has a big head start...if he pulls it out, it will be months from now, so get comfy, cause victory is far far away.

[featherman]

10. From what I can tell the MSM is keeping to the

Clinton=lead, Obama=momentum but not enough to catch up meme for the moment.
And that's fine with me.

I'll be happy with a fairly close split even if Obama is down. It's all about delegates and stretching out the process while preventing Clinton from becoming the clear front runner in delegate count

[calteacherguy]

11. No worries, he's still the underdog.

What everyone is speculating on, media included, is if he'll be able to keep it close on Tuesday. Seriously, Hillary is still expected to come out with a few more delegates on Tuesday.

Relax...well, I mean do whatever you can to help...phonebank, canvas, donate, whatever. But, relax. :-)

[tandem5]

12. I'm afraid that hillary is the underdog now. nt

[my3boyz]

16. I don't want them

to think of Obama as the front runner. I want them to underestimate him. I want him to surprise the heck out of them as he did in Iowa.

[tandem5]

20. well then the media shouldn't push him so hard. nt

[DJ13]

13. Obama's campaign works to maximize delegates

No matter what the spin by the MSM and the Clinton camp, that is what it takes to win the nomination.

Nobody plays that game better than Obama's campaign.

[joshcryer]

14. Obama will win the nomination if the media keeps creating a horse race.

Basically the more people believe he is the "underdog" and the more people who "want to see him win," the more likely it is that he will take over and win.

It's basically drama, it makes good TV, it sells well.

The only question now is whether or not the MSM will do a flip-script soon and make Obama slack back a bit. If they start talking about what Obama is wearing, be worried. Until then be happy that all these endorsements are coming out and everyone, the elite especially, is deciding who the candidate will be.

[Adelante]

15. It's a race for delegates at this point

He needs to rack them up. Clinton will probably win the most states. But he has the money to go on. It's about the delegates. But you're right. He is the upstart and it's a tough battle all the way.

[ErnestoG]

17. You're wise to advise staying frosty.

I recall 2004 all too well, as a Deanie. Even though he didn't make it as far as Obama has, we thought we had all this sewn up and then WHAM, the vote came down and we were done.

Can't make that same mistake. Consider this a hand to hand fight all the way up hill.

[GoldieAZ49]

18. even if he is down Super Tuesday

but has closed the huge gap, in what a week? Is a WIN

It will be the superdelegates that decided, and Kennedy has a lot of power in that department

[cooolandrew]

22. Let's see the big picture no-one expected him to even get this far. This guy can move mountains.

[Alexander]

23. Just remember to get out the vote. Help your friends find their polling places.

I may have to help 5 of my friends find their places so that Obama will get 5 more votes in AZ, and I'm prepared to do that.

[loveangelc]

24. Since when has the narrative been "Obama is going to win Super Tuesday?"

I'm pretty sure that everyone assumes Clinton will win the NE and CA and some other states but Obama is just hoping to get the delegates. That seems to be the media storyline imo.

[grantcart]

31. Obama is going to win CA

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_democratic_presidential_primary

Its down to 3 points and Obama is coming on strong. That is why Hillary still hasn't left the state.

Obama picked up SEIU union today 600,000 and that is going to hit her Latino support hard.


Got the grateful dead in SF on Monday.


The only thing that could have been a problem is the debate and it was fine.


Even if Hillary manages to edge Obama in CA she will have to stay here and fight with Teddy while Obama is off to greener pastures.

[loveangelc]

34. I think he'd have a chance of winning CA if not for early voting....

[grantcart]

25. I visit a VA hospital in Loma Linda Ca every two weeks

and sell benefit plans to federal employees most of the ones I have seen in the last few weeks have been African American.

Over the last several visits I was kind of surprised at how laid back they were in their support of Obama and even handed in their feelings about Clinton.

Yesterday that was over they were pissed.

Talk about Fired Up and Ready to Go. The problem with polls is that they don't show the depth of support. Obama's base has changed. Not only did it pick up folks (like Edwards supporters like me) but people are getting seriously motivated. Off to canvasing tomorrow.

I am fired up and ready to celibrate one of the greatest political upsets in American political history on feb 5th.

[beachmom]

30. Obama is the underdog in this race. This is Hillary's to lose.

So, you know, you should keep that in mind as we go along. The odds are still a Hillary win. It would be an extraordinary upset if Obama secured the nomination.

[jenmito]

35. I've heard every single commentator/pundit say Clinton is still the favorite and it's still an

uphill battle for him to beat her Tuesday, but that he WILL do well enough to stay in the game. They also still ALL say they think Hillary will be the nominee, so I think Obama has the benefit of LOWERED expectations if anything. There's NO narrative that he's going to win Super Tuesday that I heard of, and I watch the news channels all day.