Poll: NJ primary now in play; Clinton's lead falls to six points

[ProSense]

February 1, 2008 - 11:57am

Poll: NJ primary now in play; Clinton's lead falls to six points

By Editor



Three days before the New Jersey primary, Hillary Clinton's lead has
gone from 34 points to just 6: Getty Images Photo

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Barack Obama in New Jersey has narrowed to 44%-38%, according to a private poll commissioned by one of the state’s most powerful Democratic leaders, George Norcross. The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on January 30-31, was distributed to some Norcross allies earlier this morning and obtained by PolitickerNJ.com.

Click here to view Stanley Greenberg's polling memo.

A Quinnipiac University poll released on January 23 had Clinton with a 17-point lead, 49%-32%. John Edwards was at 10% and Dennis Kucinich at 1%; both candidates have since dropped out of the race. In that survey, 25% of Clinton voters had indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to change their mind. In December, Clinton’s lead in New Jersey was 51%-17%.

The poll shows that likely primary voters view both candidates favorably – Obama at 64%-17%, and Clinton at 66%-19%.

"Edwards supporters are more open to Obama than Clinton in New Jersey. Among voters initially supporting Edwards, 26 percent shift their support to Obama, while only 12 percent shift to Clinton (34 percent of Edwards’ supporters say they will continue to support Edwards although he is no longer in the race and 28 percent remain undecided)," the poll memo said. "And among the 25 percent of voters who have no preference or indicate that they would vote for a candidate who is no longer campaigning, just 14 percent say there is “no chance” they would vote for Obama in the primary election. Among this same group, more than one-fifth (21 percent) say that there is 'no chance' they would support Clinton."

Clinton leads by just 4% in the New York media market, 43%-39%. In the Philadelphia media market, Clinton leads 47%-36%.

Obama has a 2-1 lead among African American voters, and
"has closed the gap with a coalition of broad support among men and younger voters."

Clinton and Obama both campaigned in New Jersey last month, and Bill Clinton was in Camden earlier this week.

Norcross has not personally endorsed any candidate, although he has key allies in both camps Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts and Rep. Rob Andrews are backing Clinton, and State Sen. John Adler is with Obama.

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[angie_love]

1. I'm so hopeful. so so so hopeful. n/t

[neutron]

11. Obama Won!

It's all over!

[Clintonite]

2. Hillary will not lose N.J. Quit dreaming!

[Thrill]

9. He doesn't need to win it. Its about the Delegates

He just needs to win the small states and have the big states like NY and NJ real close. He just needs to keep it less than double digits

[grantcart]

3. What is the credibility of greenberg

[calteacherguy]

4. Remember, it's all about delegates, not winning states.

While winning a state is great, it's not "winner take all." In other words it makes little difference if a candidate loses or wins by just a few percentage points. Obama is pulling close enough everywhere to keep it competitive, and he keeps closing in closer.

:thumbsup:

[NJSecularist]

5. This is officially a race

[Lucinda]

6. Rass and Survery USA both show Clinton with a 12 point lead.

[NJSecularist]

7. Obama is gaining momentum

Let's just say it will be a contested state.

[Colobo]

8. Gobama! Let's beat her!

[Cha]

10. And why not?

New Jersey is progressive:)

[PleadTheFirst]

12. As a NJ Kucinich/Edwards supporter ...

... this is EXACTLY why I can't heed the advice to "vote my heart" and write in Edwards.

In my youth I and my country had the luxury to vote for the candidate we would ideally want. But thanks to our screwed up primary system and the corrupt MSM controlling the message, I face Super Tuesday without that option. Our way of life is being systematically destroyed by the Repukes, and now isn't the time for hearts and flowers. It is a time to take a hard look at who can beat the Right Wing meat puppet in November. NOTHING ELSE MATTERS.

While I would be thrilled to see either a President Obama or President Hillary Clinton, the strategic choice is obvious to me with this simple logic:

One of these two attracts a significant number of independent and even moderate Republican votes, while the other has suffered decades of character assassination by the Right Wing propaganda machine - leaving many currently disenfranchised Republicans with such residual hatred that they would flock to the polls simply to vote against them.

For me, the choice is clear on Tuesday.