Simple Question: Who Will Draw More Independents?

[Bonobo]

My argument is simple with regards to this issue. Obama draws more independents.
The strategy of inclusiveness, you know the one- the one that makes 50% of this board shudder with the fear that he will betray the left- Well that will serve him well in the GE although it is hurting him here in the Primaries.

Let me repeat that.

The very thing (the broad appeal that he is making to "unite" the country) that is hurting Obama in the primaries is what is going to give him the edge in the GE.

He is running for President, not for the Democrat Nomination and perhaps that strategy will fail him but it is the one that would kick the crap out of McCain and possibly transform this country. Because I don't think we are going to transform shit with a 4 year presidency that entrenches both sides again.

I will support Hillary. I will support her and I will get down on my knees and thank the Buddha that she won and that fuckhead will never be heard of again.

But right now, I gotta say, as a 41 year old man who has watched politics deeply for 20 years, that I think Obama could represent a new America that really would be different. A real chance for transformation since he would try to represent all of America.

You know how we have felt these 8 years? Like we have an ENEMY occupying our White House? Well we don't want to make the other side feel that way, do we?

Of course we do.

But it would be wrong. So we won't. Obama is a good person with many experiences that have shown him how to bring people together. That's what you want in a country that is in as deep shit as US in a world in as deep shit as US. A person that can spark an tidal wave of change -not someone that can shore up her supporters' side only.

No flames please. And yes, this is just my opinion. Obviously.

[TwilightGardener]

1. Interestingly, both Obama and Hillary supporters think their candidates

are the most likely to win, for different reasons: Hillary supporters actually appreciate her ruthless, calculating, and cutthroat political instincts--they see it as the only way to win against the "evil" Repubs, which is kind of what turns off those who DON'T support her. Obama's supporters think he'll win because he reaches out a hand to all Americans of all political persuasions and makes a direct appeal to them (without sacrificing his progressive values)--what Hillary's supporters think of as weak, an exposed soft underbelly that Repubs will tear into. In truth, Hillary will probably do better with Indies in the general than we might expect, and Obama is a calculating, Chicago-level street fighter, not a naive creampuff.

[The Magistrate]

4. An Excellent Analysis, Ma'am

[Bonobo]

6. I can't disagree with most of your analysis, but

I see no particular reason to think that Hillary will DRAW indies. More like McCain will lose some of his because of his war stance. However he will also gain indies because of his "Maverick-appeal". It will be a wash for him.

Obama on the other hand is drawing from a somewhat different pool I suspect.

[TwilightGardener]

11. Once there's only two candidates (assuming Bloomberg does not run

and that Nader is a non-factor), Hillary has a good chance, and many months, to make a case for Indies to vote for her. She isn't doing that now, at least not very well--she's been focused on winning the primaries against more-progressive opponents, and I don't think she anticipated being locked into this sort of struggle at this point in the race. But she has never failed to do a task if she knows it's something she needs to do to win. She and her team will figure out a strategy to win Indies and cross-over Repubs when the time comes--it's just a matter of how effective it will be. She will have to work at something that comes with ease to Obama--he's a natural, she's mechanical in this regard, but she won't cede Indies to McCain without a fight.

[Colobo]

2. Obama, easily.

[Texas_Kat]

3. McCain

[The Magistrate]

5. In His Dreams, Ma'am

"Less jobs! More wars!" is not going to draw much from the independent middle....

[Texas_Kat]

9. The general election won't be about that, though

Though it should.

[The Magistrate]

12. Those Are His Slogans, Ma'am, Distilled From His Speeches

Professionals will tie it to his tail and make it what the election is about....

[TexasObserver]

7. Probably Obama.

Both Obama and Clinton appear to be motivating a lot of people to vote in Democratic primaries. As a general proposition, he appears to be stronger with the indies and marginal Democrats. She is drawing strongly among white and Latina women over 45, and given the much higher turnout in the Democratic primaries of women over men, that is her electoral strength. That may translate to such indie voters.

Overall, I'd say Obama will draw more strongly among indies, marginal Democrats, and marginal Republicans.

[Bonobo]

8. Isn't this an important issue?

self kick 1

[Bonobo]

10. Is it because it isn't flamebait?

Self kick 2

(I will stop at 3, Mods!)

[Bonobo]

13. Last self-kick. I think it is a major issue.

[mikekohr]

14. OBAMA DRAWS INDEPENDENTS, Clinton's support is among party regulars

In nearly every contested caucus and primary Senator Clinton out polls Senator Obama among Democratic party regulars. Senator Obama's strength is among first-time voters, independents and cross-over Republicans. The Republican base will fall in line (as they are now behind Senator McCain). Our party regulars will get behind our nominee, regardless of whether that person is Senator Clinton or Senator Obama.

It will be the swath of the demographic that is Senator Obama's strength that will decide who wins the White House. This same demographic shows affinity for Senator McCain, as it has shown in the past for Ross Perot, and Ronald Reagan. It's support put RapMaster Ronnie over the top in 1980 and 1984 and it's support for Perot in 1992 and 1996 allowed Bill Clinton to slide past his Republican competition.

I live in a county that has been dominated by the Republican Party since 1832. Senator Obama is attracting support among people here, and across the nation, that have never shown desire to support any Democrat.

We will make big gains in the Senate and in the House this fall. But like it or not, to win the White House, and to lift the entire ticket even higher will require the ability to attract support among independents, moderates, and to be able to peel away that thin sliver of reasonable Republicans. Senator Obama has demonstrated that ability. Senator Clinton, not so much.

[Maribelle]

15. What on earth is the problem with wanting registered Democrats to choose the Democratic nominee?

For the life of me, I don't get it?