A giude to Feb States and what might happen

[KennedyGuy]

this is from TPM..hardly a Pro-Hillary shill
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/chart_totality_of_polls_in_feb_1.php

Here it is: A handy guide to what all the most recent polls are saying in nearly all of the 22 states holding Democratic primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5th.

Taken together, all these polls — which we've assembled for you in chart form for your convenience — offer a clear snapshot of the Super Tuesday showdown as it is shaping up right now.

The overall picture these polls provide: The race is tightening up in practically all the key Feb. 5th states — mirroring what the national polls are showing.

It's true that of the states where polls are available, Hillary Clinton leads in all but three of them. And even in Colorado and Georgia, where Obama is ahead, his advantage is a narrow one. In short, the polls would seem to show that Hillary Clinton goes into Super Tuesday with a clear advantage.

Nonetheless, the chart shows that in recent weeks, and especially in the last few days, Obama has seriously narrowed the gaps in such key states as California, Massachusetts and Connecticut, with more polls coming in everyday. Furthermore, the withdrawal of John Edwards has thrown the race into yet more chaos — the combined Edwards/undecided number is around 20% across the board. If Obama can keep the momentum going by consolidating the undecideds and taking a majority of former Edwards supporters, this could get very close indeed.

If Hillary posts a strong showing on Super Tuesday, dominating across the board, then she'll likely stop Obama's momentum and seal the nomination soon afterwards. But if Obama cuts it close or even overtakes her in the day's delegate count, this race continues onward.

Take a look at our chart after the jump.

Late Update: We've also made a similar roundup for the Republicans

Alabama — Hillary Ahead, But Unclear: Recent polls have shown Hillary ahead by over ten points in a state that hasn't gotten much attention, but we'll find out soon enough whether Obama's big win in South Carolina gives him any boost with the state's African-American voters. There hasn't been very much data to go on, and previous polls put Obama ahead. Total Delegates: 52

Alaska — Unknown: There hasn't been any polling here, but on paper it looks like a decent state for Obama. It's a largely Republican state where Bill Clinton was rarely all that popular even with Democrats — the state's last Democratic governor, Tony Knowles would boast in ads for his 2004 Senate campaign that he sued the Clinton Administration over land-use issues. For his part, Knowles supports Obama. Total Delegates: 13

Arizona — Hillary Has Medium Lead: Recent polling has shown Hillary Clinton ahead here by about ten points, but she's under the 40% mark and with fairly high undecideds. Obama is supported by the state's popular governor Janet Napolitano, and Congressman Raul Grijalva just recently switched his support from Edwards to Obama. Total Delegates: 56

Arkansas — Hillary Has Wide Lead: There is no recent polling here, but it would seem to be a given that Hillary Clinton will handily win her former home state. Obama might be able to get a decent share in Little Rock, though, through African-American support. Total Delegates: 35

California — Hillary Ahead, But Tightening: Expect the country's largest state to also be the most heated contest on Super Tuesday. Hillary Clinton has the support of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, while Obama's newfound support from the Kennedy family could give him a leg up with Latinos and older voters. After having been ahead before by around 25 points, Hillary Clinton currently leads by only about ten points in most polls, and by only three in the most recent one. Hillary will probably take a good majority among Hispanic voters, while Obama is hoping to forge a coalition of black and white voters to take the day. Make no mistake: This will be the race to watch on Tuesday night. Total Delegates: 370

Colorado — Obama Has Small Lead: A recent poll put Barack Obama ahead by only two points in this caucus. Obama also just benefitted from the endorsement of former Denver Mayor Federico Peña, a supporter who might be able to help him break through among Hispanic voters. Total Delegates: 55

Connecticut — Race Has Narrowed To A Tie In One Poll: The big test here is whether the clout of the Kennedy family extends beyond Massachusetts and into other New England states. The campaigns stayed out of her throughout 2007, out of respect to native son Chris Dodd, meaning there was not any sort of intense campaign either for or against Hillary Clinton. Thus Hillary previously had a large lead here, but the new Rasmussen poll shows it to be a tied race. Total Delegates: 48

Delaware — Unknown: Term-limited Gov. Ruth Ann Minner supports Hillary, while both of the Democratic candidates in the primary to succeed her are for Obama. There hasn't been any recent polling, given the lack of interest in the state's very few delegates, so your guess is as good as ours. Total Delegates: 15

Georgia — Obama Has Small Lead: Recent polls have put Barack Obama ahead by about five points, up from deficits of around ten ponts over the Fall, due to heavy African-American support. He will likely dominate in Atlanta and college towns like Athens, while Hillary should run stronger in rural and suburban areas. Total Delegates: 87

Idaho — Unknown: There has been no major polling here, but Obama should probably run well in Boise, the closest thing this deep-red state has to a Democratic stronghold. Total Delegates: 18

Illinois — Obama Has Wide lead: Obama will probably rack up a huge majority in his home state — polls have shown him winning by more than two to one, carrying all three major racial demogrpahics — Whites, blacks and Hispanics — by strong margins. The Illinois legislature moved this primary up to Super Tuesday specifically to help the favorite son candidate, and it looks as if that will pay off. Total Delegates: 153

Kansas — Obama Is The Favorite: Although there has been no polling, Obama is considered the frontrunner here, as he has the backing of Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, the undisputed leader of this state's relatively small Democratic Party. Obama also recently made a high-profile stop here, to the former hometown of his maternal grandparents. Total Delegates: 32

Massachusetts — Hillary's Lead Is Slipping: Hillary Clinton had enormous leads in this state for quite a while, but the Kennedy family's political adoption of Barack Obama may well have changed things. The newest poll only put Hillary ahead by by six points, with clear momentum for Obama as Ted Kennedy campaigns more and more for him, and Edwards supporters go looking for a new candidate. Before the endorsement, other polls had shown Hillary ahead by as much as 37 points. If Obama wins this or even cuts it close, it will be a testament to the power of Ted Kennedy. Total Delegates: 93

Minnesota — Hillary Has Medium Lead: Obama is expected to run well in the Twin Cities, while Hillary should play nicely in the suburbs. The question then becomes where liberal voters from the Iron Range and the rural areas, who might have supported Edwards, end up going. Total Delegates: 72

Missouri — Hillary Has Medium Lead: Recent polling has put Hillary ahead but under 50%. Hillary is supported by Congressman Emanuel Cleaver, a former mayor of Kansas City, while Obama has the backing of Sen. Claire McCaskill — giving us the interesting situation of Obama being supported by the state's most prominent female politician, and Hillary being endorsed by one of the state's major black officials. Total Delegates: 72

New Jersey — Hillary Has Wide Lead: Hillary Clinton led by over 15 points in the most recent poll — but that was down from earlier leads of 30 points or more. The Democratic establishment in this state has lined up almost entirely behind Hillary Clinton, led by Gov. Jon Corzine and Sen. Bob Menendez. Barack Obama has the support of Newark Mayor Cory Booker, plus popular former Governor (and former Edwards supporter) Dick Codey. New Jersey is split between the New York and Philadelphia media markets, so advertising here is very expensive and fraught with risks for a Midwest candidate taking a crack at Hillary Clinton — thus she has consistently led in the polls by healthy margins. The cities should probably go to Obama and the suburbs to Hillary, giving her an overall win. Total Delegates: 107

New Mexico — Unknown: There has been no recent polling here. Both sides are heavily courting Bill Richardson for his endorsement. If Richardson does choose to endorse, the lucky recipient will have a strong leg up here. Total Delegates: 26

New York — Hillary Has Wide Lead: Hillary Clinton is hoping to mine her home state for a large majority of delegates, and polling has shown her well ahead. However, polling has turned out to be very erratic — Hillary is either ahead by as much as 30 points or as little as 12. Furthermore, the internals of some polls (notably Marist and Zogby) have shown Hillary with only a narrow lead in New York City. If Obama were to carry the city, he would get a lot of delegates for an out-of-state candidate. Hillary win overall, with landslide majorities in the suburbs and Upstate — the question is how many delegates her challenger will be able to poach. Total Delegates: 232

North Dakota — Obama Is The Frontrunner: There has been no recent polling here. However, North Dakota is a heavily Republican state with a handful of high-ranking Democratic officeholders, led by Sen. Kent Conrad — and he backs Obama. The Clintons were never especially popular here, either, so Obama is probably the favorite. Total Delegates: 13

Oklahoma — Hillary Has Wide Lead: Before John Edwards dropped out, he was running second here behind Hillary and ahead of Obama, who was at a distant third. The state will probably go to Hillary in a two-way race, given the state's overall demographics and tendency towards more conservative Democrats. Total Delegates: 38

Tennessee — Hillary Has Moderate Lead: A recent poll have put Hillary ahead here by 11 points, consistent with past polls. There's not much data to go on, but if this race becomes like other Southern primaries, with Obama doing poorly among whites and Hillary doing badly with blacks, then Hillary should probably win it in the end, given this particular state's overall demographics. Total Delegates: 68

Utah — Hillary Holds Large Lead: A poll from early January put Hillary Clinton well ahead of Obama. Unfortunately, there just isn't much information to work off of in this very heavily Republican state, but it will all come down to the vote in Salt Lake City, the state's Democratic stronghold. Obama has a trip scheduled there for this weekend. Total Delegates: 23

Snapshot Of Most Recent Poll In Each State

[cloudythescribbler]

1. I agree this is a reasonably objective analysis (I don't necessarily agree w/concs, but ...

in fact, all things considered, they show Obama doing quite well, against a universally known presumptive nominee. If Obama carries Illinois (huge margin), Colorado, N Dakota, KS, Alaska, Idaho, Delaware, Georgia and CT, and is extremely close (or narrowly wins) in Missouri and CA and Ala and NM amd AZ, while narrowing HRC's lead in most other states, such as NY, NJ, MA (where I live), MN, & TN (with HRC still having huge leads in Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Utah), he will have performed very well.

If Obama surges even MORE than the gradual overall trend, he might do even better, although if there is a last-minute Hillary surge then she still could have all-but-guaranteed the nomination on Super Tues.

Obviously, Tsunami Tuesday/Monster Tuesday, front-loading such a HUGE number of contests on Feb 5 OVERWHELMINGLY favors whoever started out the campaign as the best-known, 'presumptive nominee' and is all-but-prohibitive to even the best insurgents (which includes Obama, by these figures alone, at least as a CANDIDATE).

If Obama can survive Tsunami Tuesday as well as EITHER of my first two scenarios, he will still have a VERY good shot, against formidable original odds, at the nomination.

[KennedyGuy]

2. kick for a reality check

[NJSecularist]

4. A reality check for who?

Both sides?

[AlFromDem]

3. KennedyGuy, I think Hillary will win every state on Tuesday.

Polls undersample the female vote. Hillary will wrap this up on Tuesday and we can return to the sensible 90s.

[Reciprocity]

5. One thing to keep in mind is early voters.

In Ca. in particular over half the votes have been cast which leave less room for the momentum of either candidate.