Important: Please read re: Super Tuesday

[The Delegates]

I'm really getting sick and tired of stupid comments like, "He can win AL, AK and OK, but they won't add up to one NY."

The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.

Do you understand?

The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.

Let me say it again

The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.

Say it with me

The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.

What does this mean?

This means that the importance of this late Obama momentum isn't whether he wins all of these states he's making surges in, but how close he comes.

Ignoring Superdelegates, the current count is Obama 63-Hillary 48.

Let's say Obama wins Illinois 55-24

Let's say Hillary wins California 45-41.

Assuming the congressional districts represent the overall count (since delegates are awarded by district)...

Obama would get 236 delegates from those 2 states

Clinton would get 204 delegates from those 2 states.

I think at large delegates will get divided between the 2 leaders if no one else breaks 15% (correct me if I'm wrong). So let's adjust those polls to reflect 100%.

Obama wins Illinois 66-34.
Clinton wins California 52-48.

Obama gets 279 delegates from those 2 states
Clinton gets 230

Winning a smaller state by a big margin is more important than winning a large state by a tight margin.

Clinton will win New York. But guess what? What matters is how much she wins New York by. If it is 10% or less, that's a huge Obama victory.

New York has 232 delegates. Let's say hypothetically Clinton wins 55-45.

Clinton gets 128 delegates
Obama gets 104 delegates

Adding to the Illinois and Calfornia totals

Obama 383
Clinton 358

So, what matters is NOT how many states Clinton wins. Everyone knows she'll "win" the majority of states. What matters is how close Obama closes the gap and how overwhelming his victories are in the state he wins.

Despite the fact Clinton "won" 2 states in my hypothetical to Obama's 1, Obama still leads.

If Obama keeps it close and is within 100 delegates of Hillary, I fully expect endorsements to flow and Superdelegates to defect to Obama. Right now a lot of people are supporting Hillary because they feel she is the safe bet. They don't think Obama is for real. If he can come so close to the Clinton machine, the momentum is going to be huge for him. I won't say Gore or Edwards will endorse, but if Obama is close, I think it is a strong possibility.

If Obama somehow comes out of Super Tuesday tied or ahead, or down by the less than 50, the Clinton campaign is in serious trouble.

I'm thinking Clinton and Obama will both receive between 800-900 delegates on ST.

Every time you see a comment like the one I mentioned early on, please kick this thread

[Hawkeye-X]

1. K&R - I'm in a ST state

and my mom and I are going to vote!

[Hissyspit]

2. 'Tis true. The primaries are not winner-take-all.

Isn't Obama actually ahead in delegates right now? (Don't quote me.)

[goldcanyonaz]

3. Will do!

[Uben]

4. Why ignore super delegates

They count, and count big time for Hillary. It is easy to pick and choose states delegates and say "what if?", but ignoring super delegates is like ignoring 10 states!

[The Delegates]

5. Superdelegates

Superdelegates are notoriously fickle in their support. They are, to quote Elton John, candles in the wind. They'll go wherever the winds of momentum are blowing.

Also keep in mind only 288 Superdelegates have endorsed a candidate out of 796 total Superdelegates. If Obama is close, tied, or ahead, where do you think the majority of them will go?

[Bullet1987]

6. Bookmarked...great thread!!

[The Delegates]

7. I want to add that

This is a very basic look at it.

There are intricacies that are impossible to determine ahead of time. Delegates are awarded based on congressional districts so if Obama wins 100% of one huge district but loses every other district 55-45, Obama might not get more delegates even if that 100% victory let him "win" the state.

This is just applying a blanket % across the whole state assuming the district breakdowns are similar.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D-Alloc.phtml

During the primaries, caucuses, and conventions delegates are "won" by candidates as follows:

* District Delegates are proportionally allocated according to the vote in each Congressional (or other) District.
* At-Large Delegates are proportionally allocated according to the statewide vote. (Fine point: If a presidential candidate is no longer a candidate at the time of selection of the at-large delegates, that candidate receives NO at-large delegates . In most jurisdictions, the delegates are selected some time after the primary.)
* Pledged PLEO Delegates are proportionally allocated according to the statewide vote.
* Unpledged PLEO Delegates vote their conscience.

[Bullet1987]

10. CA will be key...because if Obama can keep it close in a loss or come out with a win

he remains strong assuming Clinton takes New York and New Jersey and Obama takes Illinois. The Delegates will level out I believe in the bigger states due to a CA split. That's when the smaller states and Obama's Interior Strategy comes into play.

[fenriswolf]

8. don't forget the super delegates

this race will be close enough that the super delegates will decide. the dem party will be pissed big time. either way we will not be happy with our decision. As divisive this campaign has gotten one group is gonna feel as if this election was stolen from them.

All this even before the GE, how exciting.

[The Delegates]

9. I mentioned this a few posts up

Superdelegates are notoriously fickle in their support. They are, to quote Elton John, candles in the wind. They'll go wherever the winds of momentum are blowing.

Also keep in mind only 288 Superdelegates have endorsed a candidate out of 796 total Superdelegates. If Obama is close, tied, or ahead, where do you think the majority of them will go?

Because of that, I don't feel it is important to include them quite yet.

[TexasObserver]

11. Thank you. Nothing cures ignorance like knowledge.

I've stayed away from stating the things you've addressed very well in this thread, mainly because explaining such facts is a thankless job here. There will not likely be a big winner Tuesday for the reasons you state.

Contrary to what many here believe, California could end up split almost 50-50. On a nationwide basis, they could split down the middle. And no matter what happens, the super delegates are free agents. They can say they will back one candidate, but it's written in water vapor, and can disappear as quickly.

Unfortunately, partisans never want to face the reality that this could go on all the way to the convention. It's always possible one of the two could have a big Super Tuesday and by doing so, build momentum that will be tough to stop.

[The Delegates]

12. I actually see no way this DOESN'T go to convention

The 2/9-2/19 Primaries should split pretty evenly as well.

March 4th is big. The latest Texas poll had Obama within 6. No recent ones for Ohio, but I expect it to be close there (there will be heavy campaigning).


I really don't see any way anyone gets a majority+1 before the convention unless all the Superdelegates come together to throw their support behind one of the candidates.

[TexasObserver]

13. I believe if it comes down to the convention, super delegates ...

break for Obama.

No point is trying to lay out why I think that occurs, but suffice it to say that Obama holds the possibility of infusing into the party a whole new generation of voters. It's time for the party to choose for the future.

[The Delegates]

14. kick

It's good!

[The Delegates]

15. kick

[The Delegates]

16. Using these most recent GA, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MO, and UT polls...

The ones http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4362126 and http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4362191&mesg_id=4362191

The delegate count after those states would be:

GA - 87

Obama 53
Clinton 34

CA - 370

Obama 193
Clinton 177

NJ - 107

Clinton 49
Obama 48

MO - 72
Clinton 37
Obama 35

UT - 23

Obama 14
Clinton 9


Obama 343
Clinton 306


Factor in the IL and NY polls (Obama 55-24, Clinton 54-38)

IL
Obama 100
Clinton 53

NY
Clinton 135
Obama 97


Totals?

Obama 540
Clinton 495


If this is the case after those states, Clinton is virtually finished.

[krkaufman]

17. The main advantage of "winning" a primary is the media spin.

So a LOT depends on how the media spins the Super Tuesday results.

[The Delegates]

18. Sorry, but no

Even if the media spins spins spins...if Obama is close, tied, or ahead in delegates, he'll continue fighting on. He'll get endorsements. He'll get superdelegates. He'll make sure that the upcoming states know who really won. You think he's gonna sit on that 32 mill? No, he's going to use it to spin spin spin right back.

And the feeling I'm getting from reading stories is that the media understands this is a delegate race.

[krkaufman]

23. I hope that I am wrong, but history has demonstrated otherwise.

Note that Obama doesn't have to "win" a lot of states for the spin to go his way; if he "exceeds expectations" then the spin may be positive for him. Of course, setting expectations has been to the Clintons' advantage thus far; take, for example, Hillary's huge, underdog victory in New Hampshire -- where she won by 3 points in a state she was leading by double-digits barely two weeks before. Somehow the NH win was spun as a major victory for Hillary, as opposed to demonstrating her vulnerability in escaping with a narrow win.

[The Delegates]

24. This is the first time under proportional representation...

That there has been a race this close. I think people realize it's about the delegates.

[krkaufman]

25. I expect those paying close attention may, but most just know what they hear ...

... on the nightly news... polling, campaign donations, and who's won the primaries.

[The Delegates]

27. But I think when all is said and done...

Due to the sheer volume of states holding primaries, the most widely reported # will be the delegate #.

[The Delegates]

19. With all these polls being posted

I figured I'd bump this, particularly so the Hillary supporters who are getting off on posting polls that show Hillary with single digit leads in states like NJ can understand that that would be a victory for Obama.

As I said before, a big part of Super Tuesday is going to be who wins their home state by a larger margin.

[VolcanoJen]

20. Obama down by less than 50 is the key.

Same would be true if Clinton found herself down by less than 50.

Going into WA, WI and then in March looking at OH and TX, well, it's the same story with proportional delegates. If either Clinton or Obama can come out of Super Tuesday with a 75 or 100 point pledged delegate lead, it will be nearly impossible to catch up in the remaining states.

[The Delegates]

21. I actually disagree

Hillary down by 50 would all but seal the deal for Obama.

Obama down by 50 would be seen as a victory for Obama.

It's about perception. Right now, Obama still has to clear that viability hurdle. If he comes so close to the Clinton machine (or ties it or is slightly ahead), a large % of the 500 super delegates who haven't endorsed yet will flock to Obama.

Edwards will probably endorse Obama in that case as well (since I think he's waiting for a clear frontrunner to emerge since he wants to unite the party).

Clinton down by 50 after she held a commanding lead and was inevitable would be a major defeat for her. The Obama Surge would continue if this were the case. People would be like, "You know, this Obama guy is for real."

The only Clinton victory would be one where Clinton has a 100+ delegate lead after ST (not counting supers).

An Obama victory would be slightly behind, tied, or ahead.

[The Delegates]

22. More polls, more kicks

KICK

[LadyVT]

26. Thanks! But remember...

the superdelegates are likely to decide this.

[The Delegates]

28. Another day, another nonsense bunch of posts, another kick

The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.