New York WNBC/Marist Clinton 54, Obama 38 Clinton +16

[suston96]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

See Rasmussen there also: Clinton 51, Obama 30 Clinton +21

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I think Obama would take hitting 40 in her home state.

[Renew Deal]

4. If he keeps it under 60-40, it's a hell of an accomplishment.

And it might be a huge problem for Hillary.

[neutron]

7. Thanks for the Update

Since we pulled cable, we can't get even local TV.

[Alexander]

2. Looks like Obama will get the Illinois delegate bonus. Clinton might not...

get the same bonus in New York.

[The Delegates]

3. If the Ny and Illinois polls are accurate

If Clinton wins New York 54-38


And Obama wins Illinois 55-24

Adjusting to 100% (split the extra %s evenly)

Clinton wins NY 58-42

Obama wins Illinois 66-34


Obama comes out of those 2 states with 198 delegates
Clinton comes out of those 2 states with 187 delegates


Whoever gets closest to their opponent in their opponents home state has a huge advantage.

[NJSecularist]

5. Well, the problem with your theory is that both polls won't be accurate

Seeing as none of those polls are even close to 100% decided, let alone 95%...

[The Delegates]

6. If the split remains similar

Then the fact is that Obama will come out of those 2 states ahead. If he finishes down 10-20 delegates in Cali...

No matter what this thing is gonna be close to being tied after Tuesday.