Sorry Zogby's California Poll is crap

[Herman Munster]

Romney is not going to win California and neither is Obama.

http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed7/idUSN0345866120080203

Romney leads McCain by 37 percent to 34 percent in California. The poll's margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.

"California could be Romney's last stand," Zogby said. "If he wins there, it may not be a whole new ballgame, but it can give those Republicans who oppose McCain hope they still have a chance to stop him."

[book_worm]

1. I was waiting for you to weigh in on this, and predictable as ever.

I think that it is possible that HRC will win CA, due to early voting, but I do think Obama has momentum.

[grantcart]

6. the best evidence that Hillary is losing CA is that her internal polls

were so bad that she stayed her for 3 days.

[John Q. Citizen]

18. Yep, that's a good indiction. No point in spending lots of time where you are running strong.

Better to spend time where you need to shore up support.

[Raine]

33. Also Bill is having

to do a series of rallys here on Sunday. I would think that is a sign that they are worried.

[Thrill]

2. LOL I was wondering where you were

Why is Hillary spending so much time in California?

[Herman Munster]

5. why has Obama abandoned the state for Idaho?

[book_worm]

15. I don't think he has abandoned it--he has high profile surrogates

but he also realizes that other states even smaller states add up in delegates and momentum. I think it is possible HRC will win CA but her overall delegate lead in the state won't be much, meanwhile becuz he is campaigning hard in even smaller states like Idaho, ND, KS, Utah, ect Obama will probably win those by large margins and overwhelm in delegates in them because HRC has ignored them. I think it's a smart strategy.

[MediaBabe]

20. Very well said!

:applause: :yourock:

[grantcart]

22. lol why is Hillary stuck here while Obama goes from

media market to media market to media market.

Oh and by the way Obama got twice as many people in the snow in Idaho than Hillary got in the sun in San Diego. Obama spent 3 hours in Idaho and will have visited 8 states during the same time she was here.

To prepare you for tomorrow before the superbowl you will have a chance to see one of the biggest crowds of the year fill Pauley Pavillion at UCLA for Michelle Obama.

[John Q. Citizen]

26. Because he is running stronger than expected and has the luxury of spending time with people

all across this great country. Unlike Hillary who is now playing catch-up to match expectations.

I like it. It's kind of a super Tuesday version of Dean's fifty state strategy. Get out there and rally people from all across the land.

Hillary can't really show her face in much of the heart land. They don't much like her in the Inter-mountain West. So she tends to stay on the coasts, where the reception is less chilly.

[David Zephyr]

13. It's a world first for him: no mention of race.

BrentTaylor, maybe we should bookmark the thread because it doesn't mention race in the OP. It's a Kodak moment. LOL! :hi:

[CreekDog]

3. Why is it crap?

[Herman Munster]

9. they are outliers

no other poll shows obama winning. no other polls shows romney winning.

[MadBadger]

14. Field Poll has Obama down two.

[CreekDog]

19. It doesn't show Obama winning, it shows a statistical tie

very similar to other polls. The recent field poll also shows a statistical tie, it is very respected in CA.

your opinion on the poll is worthless since you don't understand that poll or most others.

[NJSecularist]

21. But there is another poll that shows Romney only down two

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_republican_presidential_primary

It's a contested state, I don't see what's so ridiculous about Romney having a lead in the state.

[Herman Munster]

27. that poll showed romney down 4

4 is not 2.

[Big Blue Marble]

4. I'm thinking it looks pretty good for Obama.

Herman, you are here night and day. Do you ever sleep or are there more than one Herman Munsters? :)

[book_worm]

7. How about the respected independent Field poll which shows a dead heat in CA?

with Obama coming on strong.

[southern_dem]

10. It doesn't show Clinton blowing him out

so it's crap too. :sarcasm:

[John Q. Citizen]

31. Exactly!

[TwilightGardener]

8. Well, iff'n ya say so...

:crazy:

[denem]

11. Oh Hermie

I knew you'd say that. :)

[ErnestoG]

12. Oh yes, ANY poll that puts Hillary at parity or behind HAS to be wrong!

LAUGH!

[Herman Munster]

23. the point is that his polls are outliers

There have been multiple polls for example polling New Jersey in the exact same time frame as Zogby and none of them have Obama within 12, let alone 1. That poll is an outlier. Nobody can say at this point that is is wrong, but it's an outlier.

The same with the California poll. Every single poll has had Hillary in the lead but Zogby. It's an outlier.

Every poll has had McCain in the lead in California but Zogby. That's an outlier.

If I see 2 or 3 other polls showing the race in Obama's favor, I may give this poll more credit but until then it's a clear outlier.

My opinion is that Hillary has run a very aggressive early voting effort that will win California for her by at least 5 points, even with Obama surging down the stretch.

For what it's worth, there was a comment on one of the blogs tonight that Hillary's internal polls show her with a double digit lead in California. Take that for what it is worth but at this point it's all GOTV. Polls won't mean a thing in 2 days.

[ErnestoG]

36. the point is that you Hillars hate polls unless they show a gain for your candidate. Lame.

[loveangelc]

37. then why would she be spending so much time in CA?

[MadBadger]

16. You're not sorry.

[calteacherguy]

17. Zogby is the most accurate pollster there is, and the most recent field poll

I posted here a couple of hours ago shows the race statistcally tied.

I'm on the ground here, and I will tell you the majority of Democrats I contact are Obama supporters, and every single one of the independents I've talked to.

I've swung quite a few from undecided to leaning Obama. It is very fluid here and the tide is definitely in Obama's favor.

She's losing ground here.

[caligirl]

24. Your an insightful campaigner, others writing for blogs say the same thing.

[JorgeTheGood]

25. Kep in mind that Zogby

posted large numbers for Obama the night before the NH primary when he knew the polls had tightened to a near draw (2 points or closer) and admitted the next day (trying to explain away being off by a ton) that he intentionally didn't release the new data (for some bogus reason).

IOW -- Zogby is not to be trusted. He takes his marching orders from the msm and the gop. Of course he has Obama winning. Watch him change his tune midnight of the 4th so that his poll is dead on with the real numbers - whatever that is. Never fails with Z.

[MadBadger]

28. Everybody fucked up NH. He was spot on in Nevada, and has a good track record this time around.

[JorgeTheGood]

38. Of course he was spot on in NV

so was everyone else ... they had no choice after intentionally skewing NH for Obama

and Zogby admitted to doing it ... he had Hillary tied or winning and left up his Obama numbers.

He has lost all integrity.

[Azathoth]

29. Zogby takes his marching orders from the GOP?

:rofl:

[NJSecularist]

30. So basically what you are saying is that his polling data is right?

And sometimes he doesn't release his correct data?

[Quixote1818]

32. Thats how I took it. nt

[JorgeTheGood]

39. He's on record admitting it ...

deal with it.

[BootinUp]

34. Its not crap but there is 15% undecided so it is worthless. nt

[LadyVT]

35. Polls

pollster.com, people--a collection of polls, and some nice plot charts of the Super Tuesday states
It's all there

[still_one]

40. Nobody can predict California, and if you are trying to you are incorrect also /nt