McClatchy-MSNBC: CA Hillary +9, AZ Hillary +2, GA Obama +6, MO Hillary +6, NJ Hillary +7

[Herman Munster]

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/920176.html

ARIZONA
Clinton, 43 percent
Obama, 41 percent
undecided, 13 percent

CALIFORNIA
Clinton, 45 percent
Obama, 36 percent
undecided, 16 percent

GEORGIA
Obama, 47 percent
Clinton, 41 percent
undecided, 10 percent

MISSOURI
Clinton, 47 percent
Obama, 41 percent
undecided, 10 percent

NEW JERSEY
Clinton, 46 percent
Obama, 39 percent
undecided, 12 percent

[The Delegates]

1. Awesome for Obama

God this is great. With the proportional representation system, if these numbers hold true (and the undecideds break evenly for the 2 candidates), it will come down to who wins their home state by a bigger margin. And right now, Obama is doing that.

If these numbers hold up, the delegate count will be virtually tied, which is an Obama victory. Those 500ish Superdelegates that haven't endorsed would flock to Obama in the event of a tie. The hurdle Obama is still trying to clear is viability. If he ties the Clinton machine, he will have cleared that hurdle.

Thanks for being unbiased and posting a poll that might not necessarily favor your candidate.

[book_worm]

2. Yeah, Obama! He's gaining ground in all the different polls.

[FrenchieCat]

3. You are quite poll obsessed.....

But who lives by the polls, dies by the polls.

Amen!

[AGirl]

4. Yay Go HIllary, shes not losing it!

[The Delegates]

7. Dear AGirl,

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4350508

Thank you!

These polls simply point to the fact the delegate count will be damn near tied after Tuesday.

[LilyMunster]

5. Thanks honey!

FIRED UP FOR THE LADY!

[loveangelc]

10. LOL at your username.

[AGirl]

11. Yes She Can!

[AGirl]

12. Yes She Can!

[Azathoth]

6. Man, Obama is coming on strong in Jersey

The CA poll seems to be an outlier, but I won't hold that against you cause the rest are looking pretty good. :)

[LilyMunster]

8. I wonder if Jim4Wes will drop in to tell us the CA result is "meaningless"

since 16% is undecided.

[loveangelc]

9. OMG these poll numbers are good for Obama.

I know you were upset by the recent polls but these are really good. AZ is within 2 points with 13 undecided, CA is only 9 with 16 undecided (you think that will go to hillary????? i dont...plus anything in the single digits will be seen as a victory for obama) and missouri will be close, but I think obama could possibly take it. I would be afraid about those NJ numbers if I were Hillary. Winning by single digits in NJ is not a good thing.

[Tweed]

13. Great numbers for Obama

Thanks for posting these!

[Herman Munster]

14. I don't know about great, I'd call it a mixed bag

If Hillary can stay within 6 in Georgia, that's a major victory for her. She will pick up a lot of delegates in a state Obama was supposed to win walking away.

Hillary up 9 in California would be a major victory in light of other polls showing it much tighter.

The AZ, and NJ numbers are very good for Obama I will concede.

MO is good for Hillary.

[The Delegates]

15. No matter how either side tries to spin it...

Hillary needs to win the delegate count on Super Tuesday by at least 100 for it to be seen as a victory. Anything closer runs the risk of being spun into a major Obama upset. If they're tied, watch the endorsements, superdelegates, and momentum for Obama become unstoppable.

[loveangelc]

17. IMO it needs to be more like 200 for Hillary...

[The Delegates]

18. Will you marry me?

[loveangelc]

16. It depends on how widely reported the CA polls are.

A 9 point victory is not exactly a victory when everyone's been pointing out a 20 point lead and it being said to be in the Clinton column with all Obama hoping he could do is pick up enough delegates...

[Tweed]

19. True true, but you and I are looking at it from two different angles

You see Hillary being up in those states and thinking that she will probably come away with those same numbers on Tuesday.

I see it as I remember you posting numbers after South Carolina that were much worse for Obama and he has climbed very high in the polls in just seven days. I see his numbers getting only better on Tuesday and coming away with a victory or a tie. Considering he already has a lead in delegates and momentum, a win, tie, or a loss by even 100 delegates (out of almost 1,700?) would be an absolute victory for him.

"If Hillary can stay within 6 in Georgia, that's a major victory for her. She will pick up a lot of delegates in a state Obama was supposed to win walking away."

But if Obama does that in every other state in the nation, then not so much.

[catagory5]

20. Thanks

Thank you Herman!

[catagory5]

22. but,,,,,,what about the GOD zogby????

Zogby claims obama has a 4 point up on CLINTON in Ca??? This poll HAS to be wrong cuz Zog's is never wrong or has a vested intrest in certain politicians.

I am soooo confused. BUt, we have the "king of all media" on our side!

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Hillary needs to really clean up Tuesday, or Obama will win the nomination.

And right now, it's not looking like she will clean up on Tuesday. She very well could win the most delegates, but if Obama stays within 100 of her, things will begin to break Obama's way. Why? Because it will not be enough to curb the momentum he has created and Obama will fair far better in the next batch of states than Clinton. Moreover, I think Obama is best prepared to win this thing the longer it goes, where Clinton is not.

In every one of these states a month ago, Obama did not have the lead. In most of these states he was down by 20+ points. There is a major shift going on here and if it carries over into Super Tuesday and he stays within striking distance, or beats Hillary, the media will say Obama has the momentum, just as they've been saying since South Carolina. If that happens, expect more endorsements, like from Al Gore and John Edwards.

Now if Hillary does do well Tuesday, like surprises and wins California by 10+ points, loses Illinois by 10 or less, slaughters Obama by 20 or more in New York, cuts into Alabama, wins Missouri by 10+ and wins the other smaller states, she will win. If, however, Obama stays within 5 of Clinton in California, or wins it, takes Illinois by a wide margin, stays within 10 of her in New York, stays close to her within New Jersey and wins the states he's expected to do very well in, Obama just may very well come out on top of the delegate count.

[avrdream]

23. Big undecided numbers but Hillary has generally held her own in states

where she was that far ahead in the polls.

I suspect these states will come pretty close to those numbers, mostly because there isn't time for any big "events" to change them.

[sunonmars]

24. I thought Georgia was a huge lead for Obama

[shayes51]

25. Hillary will win all these states except Georgia.

[cali]

26. Except it's not just about winning- it's about delegates

and if these polls translate into votes, the delegate split will be very close.